New York Mets Offseason Thread

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Well when he has a lot more outs than most guys you tend to harp on the high K number. He's basically one or two steps away from being the modern-day Dave Kingman.

Plus the Mets are left-handed enough as it is anyway. I'm not as worried about the lack of defense in the corners so long as Beltran's healthy, he held the OF together defensively last year all on his own when flanked by a rookie and a converted infielder.

I do think part of the issue with Dunn and Abreu is they're waiting for Manny to set the bar and Manny's waiting out teams till the last minute to try and get every last penny. To a certain extent teams that would take Dunn and Abreu as fallbacks are also waiting on Manny. Burrell signed early for far less than he was expecting. Bradley probably got a fair deal, all things considered.

Well he was last year, and while the entire D'Backs team folded he didn't do much to help matters.

He's light years ahead of Kingman. Kingman never walked or did much of anything else. His career OB% was .302. I do have to give Dunn credit there...he DOES get on base.

I'd have to look this up, but I wonder if Dunn is a guy who can hit bad pitchers but doesn't do much against good pitching.

Good point with Manny, although I wonder if Dunn and Abreu are starting to get a little restless waiting.

[Triumph]

and kingman was a tremendous ball player - except he couldn't take a walk to save his life. dunn is kingman except he can take walks.

how could you say that dunn didn't help matters in arizona? he had a .417 OBP for god's sake. did anyone on the mets do that all year? no.

what's scaring teams off is the fact that yes, once dunn's bat slows down he may well be a terrible player like travis hafner. and yes, the left fielder market is odd - ibanez got way overpaid and burrell underpaid. but dunn would be a great addition to any team who has designs on putting fernando tatis out in left field.

[NJDevs4978]

I didn't look at the monthly breakdown but in his 44 games with the Dbacks Dunn was pretty good. I'd be happy having that Dunn play 150 games for the Mets.

.243-8-26 in 144 AB's is pretty good?

And yeah I know his OBP was over .400 but I'd rather have a middle of the order guy drive in runs as opposed to working out walks and leaving it to the next guy, unless the next guy's pretty good and usually that wasn't the case in Cinci or even Arizona.

He's light years ahead of Kingman. Kingman never walked or did much of anything else. His career OB% was .302. I do have to give Dunn credit there...he DOES get on base.

I honestly think OBP's are higher than they used to be in Kingman's day (or before) because of both micromanaging pitching-wise and the Moneyball theories emphasizing getting on base on offense. Intentional walks used to be frowned on under all but the most extreme cases, now they're a strategy.

Edited January 26, 2009 by Hasan4978

[Triumph]

.243-8-26 in 144 AB's is pretty good?

And yeah I know his OBP was over .400 but I'd rather have a middle of the order guy drive in runs as opposed to working out walks and leaving it to the next guy, unless the next guy's pretty good and usually that wasn't the case in Cinci or even Arizona.

huh? so you'd rather have dunn swinging at bad pitches instead of getting on base? dunn isn't trying to 'work walks' - he's looking for pitches he can hit. if he thinks he can't hit them and the umpire thinks so too, where's the problem?

I honestly think OBP's are higher than they used to be in Kingman's day (or before) because of both micromanaging pitching-wise and the Moneyball theories emphasizing getting on base on offense. Intentional walks used to be frowned on under all but the most extreme cases, now they're a strategy.

intentional walks certainly have something to do with it. but it's been pretty well proven that good hitters take more walks, in general, across all eras. dunn has an excellent batting eye.

anyway the mets refused to give valentino pascucci a look so i doubt adam dunn is coming anywhere new york - but he's a tremendous ballplayer.

Edited January 26, 2009 by Triumph

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

.243-8-26 in 144 AB's is pretty good?

And yeah I know his OBP was over .400 but I'd rather have a middle of the order guy drive in runs as opposed to working out walks and leaving it to the next guy, unless the next guy's pretty good and usually that wasn't the case in Cinci or even Arizona.

I honestly think OBP's are higher than they used to be in Kingman's day (or before) because of both micromanaging pitching-wise and the Moneyball theories emphasizing getting on base on offense. Intentional walks used to be frowned on under all but the most extreme cases, now they're a strategy.

They are higher, but not by a crazy amount. The league OB% was .329 for Kingman's career...for Dunn's career the league OB% is .343.

Tri...yeah, 4 years or more of Adam Dunn is a little scary, especially if his fielding goes right along with his hitting. I think Burrell's clubhouse reputation, as well as his inconsistency (I never saw a guy who could look so good AND so bad) hurt him. The FAN had a Phillie radio guy on before the World Series (can't remember his name), and he said that, pretty much to a man, Burrell's teammates couldn't stand him, and the radio guy himself basically called Burrell a bad guy.

[nmigliore]

Murphy...I love his approach at the plate. He may not drop off as much as you think...are you down on him? I'm getting the feeling the Mets have abandoned (at the very least postponed) the idea of him playing 2B.

No, how am I down on him? I want him to start but I rather it be at 2B, not LF.. I think we would get more production out of a Dunn in LF in terms of power and driving in runs.. I do agree his approach at the plate is very good which is why I like him in the 2-hole in the lineup.. he should be booting Castillo out of town. I think he'll be a .280-.300ish avg hitter this year if he can be show the plate disciplincy (sp?) he showed last year, or maybe better than that like his .313 avg last season.. Position wise I wouldn't say its "abandoned" of him playing 2B, at least postponed until Castillo struggles down the stretch or next year if Luis proves he incapable of playing again. I am very curious what happens when/if Castillo is batting below .250 in June and struggling to get on base. Do they risk playing Murphy at 2B even though he doesn't have the most experience (only fall ball) ? I dont think we could expect Cora to be the next Easley or Valentin. Maybe we will give Ramon Martinez another call!

I think what the Mets envision as Dunn's low end (25 HRs, 80 RBI, .240 BA and a gazillion Ks) is enough to scare them off. They seem committed to Tatis/Murphy in LF. Honestly, I'm not sure which one of those I'd take. I know Dunn's put up some good power numbers (not a lot of RBI for the amount of HRs though), but take him out of Great American and he's likely a shaky, low-average power hitter who isn't a good fielder and can probably be tamed by good pitching.

Think about it...the guy's reached 40+ HRs five straight years, has hit 278 HRs before the age of 30 and no one's going after him? What does that tell you?

I just looked this up...his numbers home and away aren't as different as I would have thought. But he's a lifetime .227 hitter in August and a lifetime .223 hitter in September. With the Mets' problems down the stretch the last thing they need is another guy who folds late:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=dunnad01

His home and away splits aren't that big of a difference, he can rake.. I think I could live with his low end with the power and RBIs, the average of .240 scares me though Im pretty sure Murphy and Tatis would combine for a better average than that.. About fielding: tatis/murphy really aren't that great fielders themselves.. Tatis has the egde IMO but sometimes Murphy looked kinda lost out there..

(edit: added something on Castillo/2b situation)

Edited January 27, 2009 by nmigliore

[nmigliore]

anyway the mets refused to give valentino pascucci a look so i doubt adam dunn is coming anywhere new york - but he's a tremendous ballplayer.

this

I was very curious why he wasn't called up.. he was the best AAA offensive player I believe (on the Mets system) and not even looksey?

Pascucci's 2008 stats w/ AAA-New Orleans: .290/.410/.553/.963 (!), 27 HR, 81 RBI

Edited January 26, 2009 by nmigliore

[Triumph]

They are higher, but not by a crazy amount. The league OB% was .329 for Kingman's career...for Dunn's career the league OB% is .343.

Tri...yeah, 4 years or more of Adam Dunn is a little scary, especially if his fielding goes right along with his hitting. I think Burrell's clubhouse reputation, as well as his inconsistency (I never saw a guy who could look so good AND so bad) hurt him. The FAN had a Phillie radio guy on before the World Series (can't remember his name), and he said that, pretty much to a man, Burrell's teammates couldn't stand him, and the radio guy himself basically called Burrell a bad guy.

Oh, I agree, 4 years is scary. I was saying 2 years would be great.

I mean, if the Phillies don't have Burrell, do they win the WS in 4 games? Raul Ibanez is a downgrade both at the bad and the field, and exacerbates the Phillies' problem of left-handed hitters. Clubhouse reputations are way overblown - it might sour me on two equal guys, but not enough to give a 36 year old whose slugging percentage relies on doubles a 3 year contract.

[nmigliore]

They are higher, but not by a crazy amount. The league OB% was .329 for Kingman's career...for Dunn's career the league OB% is .343.

Tri...yeah, 4 years or more of Adam Dunn is a little scary, especially if his fielding goes right along with his hitting. I think Burrell's clubhouse reputation, as well as his inconsistency (I never saw a guy who could look so good AND so bad) hurt him. The FAN had a Phillie radio guy on before the World Series (can't remember his name), and he said that, pretty much to a man, Burrell's teammates couldn't stand him, and the radio guy himself basically called Burrell a bad guy.

I would not take Dunn for 4 years, not even 3, 2 max.. Hes a DH in the waiting (if not now).. He also seems like one of those hitters who will hit that "Andruw Jones Wall" sooner or later

[Devils731]

.243-8-26 in 144 AB's is pretty good?

Ya, his numbers were pretty good.

~Expanded stats over a 162 game season.

.243 BA .417 OBP .472 SLG .889 OPS 96 RBI 77 R 30 HR 33 2B

Ya, I'd take those numbers. They're pretty good.

It's not so fair that you tried to dismiss a .417 OBP like it's no big deal when that would have been the 6th best in all of baseball across a season.

[nmigliore]

Hasan was referring to your statement that he was 'pretty good' with the Dbacks..

I didn't look at the monthly breakdown but in his 44 games with the Dbacks Dunn was pretty good. I'd be happy having that Dunn play 150 games for the Mets.

I guess you meant he was pretty good overall, because with the Dbacks he really wasn't anything spectacular.

>> edit: Actually I was wrong, his numbers were pretty good, D731 you are right. His .243 avg was better than his .233 avg with Cinncy. 8 HR/26 RBI in 144 ABs with Dbacks. Also his OBP hit over .400 with ARI unlike it did with CIN (ARI - .417, CIN - 373).. But then again he only had 144 ABs with ARI opposed to the bigger sample of 373 ABs with CIN (I could easily see his OBP sliding back down to .380-.390 range if he had the same # of ABs with ARI).. His slugging % was better with CIN, but thats probably expected with that hitter's park

No idea what made me think he struggled with ARI

(btw: Jerry Manuel was on Daily News Live today on SNY, he said he would like to have another RH bat for his lineup.. he also said it would be 'exciting' to manage Manny Ramirez.. Again I think they are looking to add a bat when they finish the rotation, just not Manny unless they feel they can jump into things and nab him on a short term deal)

Edited January 27, 2009 by nmigliore

[NJDevs4978]

Ya, his numbers were pretty good.

~Expanded stats over a 162 game season.

.243 BA .417 OBP .472 SLG .889 OPS 96 RBI 77 R 30 HR 33 2B

Ya, I'd take those numbers. They're pretty good.

It's not so fair that you tried to dismiss a .417 OBP like it's no big deal when that would have been the 6th best in all of baseball across a season.

But walks from Dunn are both inevitable and not productive. Of course a 6'6 250 guy that hits 40 HR's is going to be pitched around a lot. Especially when he can't hurt you running and he's got the likes of Justin Upton and Mark Reynolds batting behind him.

I'm not saying he should swing at pitches for the sake of doing so, but he does that plenty anyway with his sub .250 average (another reason he gets a lot of walks, people wait for him to swing at junk).

And that 40 HR production in Cinci magically went down to 30 in Arizona fwiw. He does clearly have 40 HR power, but he's a classic mistake hitter which makes me leery of him in pennant race baseball.

Edited January 27, 2009 by Hasan4978

[Triumph]

But walks from Dunn are both inevitable and not productive. Of course a 6'6 250 guy that hits 40 HR's is going to be pitched around a lot. Especially when he can't hurt you running and he's got the likes of Justin Upton and Mark Reynolds batting behind him.

how are they not productive? he didn't make an out. that's the goal of the game. a guy who makes less outs is a more productive hitter. you do understand the implications of what you're saying, right?

I'm not saying he should swing at pitches for the sake of doing so, but he does that plenty anyway with his sub .250 average (another reason he gets a lot of walks, people wait for him to swing at junk).

sounds like a guy i want to sign up to be on my team - pitchers pitch around him? great! dunn's average is so low because he doesn't shorten up his swing, which is fine when he's crushing 40 HRs a year, and since a strikeout is only very slightly worse than a normal out.

And that 40 HR production in Cinci magically went down to 30 in Arizona fwiw. He does clearly have 40 HR power, but he's a classic mistake hitter which makes me leery of him in pennant race baseball.

what hitters aren't 'mistake' hitters? how do you define a mistake? if you define it as any ball hit for a home run, then every hitter is a mistake hitter. i suppose the implication is that since dunn derives so much of his value from the home run, and the best pitchers in the game don't give up many home runs, dunn isn't fit for the best teams. i'm not even so sure that's true (a lot of great pitchers give up a lot of home runs), but even if it were, is fernando tatis a classic great-pitch hitter? adam dunn is one of the best hitting left-fielders in the game. a 4 year contract is no doubt bad, but the mets give out bad contracts like this all the time.

Edited January 27, 2009 by Triumph

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

No, how am I down on him [Murphy]? I want him to start but I rather it be at 2B, not LF.. I think we would get more production out of a Dunn in LF in terms of power and driving in runs.. I do agree his approach at the plate is very good which is why I like him in the 2-hole in the lineup.. he should be booting Castillo out of town. I think he'll be a .290-310 avg hitter this year if he can be show the plate disciplincy (sp?) he showed last year, or better of course.. Position wise I wouldn't say its "abandoned" of him playing 2B, at least postponed.

You said that you didn't think he would repeat what he did last year, so it came off like you might be a little down on him. I think he could repeat last year's numbers:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=29200

As for the 2B thing with him...who knows if he can play the position effectively at the major league level? It's too bad that he never got to play winter ball after his hamstring injury...then he would have at least gotten that many more games at 2B under his belt. Unfortunately it looks like we're stuck watching Castillo, who apparently begged Omar not to trade him and promised to come to spring training in top shape. Great Luis...why didn't you do that last year AFTER Omar SIGNED YOU TO A FOUR-YEAR DEAL?! At any rate, if Murphy shows he can hit for a full season, and Castillo stinks up the joint again, I'm guessing the Mets will revisit Murph playing 2B, although they'll probably get stuck eating the remainder of Castillo's contract if that's the case.

[nmigliore]

You said that you didn't think he would repeat what he did last year, so it came off like you might be a little down on him. I think he could repeat last year's numbers:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=29200

As for the 2B thing with him...who knows if he can play the position effectively at the major league level? It's too bad that he never got to play winter ball after his hamstring injury...then he would have at least gotten that many more games at 2B under his belt. Unfortunately it looks like we're stuck watching Castillo, who apparently begged Omar not to trade him and promised to come to spring training in top shape. Great Luis...why didn't you do that last year AFTER Omar SIGNED YOU TO A FOUR-YEAR DEAL?! At any rate, if Murphy shows he can hit for a full season, and Castillo stinks up the joint again, I'm guessing the Mets will revisit Murph playing 2B, although they'll probably get stuck eating the remainder of Castillo's contract if that's the case.

I think he can still manage to put that kind of avg/obp, but over a full season? Im not sure.. thats difficult.. if he can, then we have a special hitter.. I could see his avg being realistically .280-.290ish over his 1st full season, which is still very good. It seemed he slowed down a bit after his first month (of course not by much though):

August (called up): .333 avg, .420 obp in 69 ABs

September: .290 avg, .371 obp in 62 ABs

(I also thought he batted higher than .313, like around .320-.325, so my bad on the stat mess up)

Edited January 27, 2009 by nmigliore

[Triumph]

i wouldn't be surprised if castillo had a bounceback year - something like .280/.360/350. of course, that's still not very good, but yeah.

[nmigliore]

i wouldn't be surprised if castillo had a bounceback year - something like .280/.360/350. of course, that's still not very good, but yeah.

I'd sign up for that right now.

He needs to come to ST in shape and ready for the season without any nagging knee or other injury issues, aka FIT and HEALTHY. If he does, just maybe he will have a bounceback year.. God I hope so, because I dunno what they will do if he struggles 1/3 into the season.. I guess you could always acquire a 2B at the deadline but then everyone will look back to this offseason and say shame shame Omar for not dumping Luis and not picking up a bat like Hudson

[RockingTheRed81]

So are the Mets secretly pursuing Manny or is that just a bad rumor? Also, Sheets or Perez? who will the mets sign

[nmigliore]

So are the Mets secretly pursuing Manny or is that just a bad rumor? Also, Sheets or Perez? who will the mets sign

I dont think they are pursuing Manny right now, its very likely Perez will sign with the Mets.

[nmigliore]

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/9143260...n-from-Mariners

^^ Meanwhile.. Aaron Heilman is coming back to the NL.. The Cubs traded infielder Ronny Cedeno and and minor league pitcher for Heilman (LOL).. Hes expected to battle for the 5th rotation spot or pitch out of their bullpen

I cant wait until the Mets have batting practice off of him.. in fact I cant wait to hear the great reception he will get at Citi Field.

Edited January 28, 2009 by nmigliore

[Prucenterrules]

I cant wait until the Mets have batting practice off of him.. in fact I cant wait to hear the great reception he will get at Citi Field.

He'll hear an even bigger chorus of boo's.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

He'll hear an even bigger chorus of boo's.

Home Run Heilman in WRIGLEY?! Man that's dangerous.

[Devils731]

I can't believe Dunn may be looking for a deal as low as 1 year for 5 million and nobody is jumping at that.

[Triumph]

I can't believe Dunn may be looking for a deal as low as 1 year for 5 million and nobody is jumping at that.

someone will, and they'll be smart to do it. if the yankees didn't already have too many outfielders i'd love it.

also according to park factors wrigley is not much worse than shea when it comes to home runs.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfa...amp;season=2008

Edited January 28, 2009 by Triumph

[Devils731]

someone will, and they'll be smart to do it. if the yankees didn't already have too many outfielders i'd love it.

also according to park factors wrigley is not much worse than shea when it comes to home runs.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfa...amp;season=2008

I didn't do more than this but click through the 2 seasons before and their is a huge difference.