New York Mets Offseason Thread

[Triumph]

I didn't do more than this but click through the 2 seasons before and their is a huge difference.

2 seasons before with shea? i think that could be due to citi field's construction.

[Devils731]

2 seasons before with shea? i think that could be due to citi field's construction.

With either. Last year the 2 stadiums were close, the 2 years prior Wrigley was a launching pad, in fact one season was way more homer happy than anywhere else, and Shea did not produce many homers. So Wrigley had a down year and Shea had an up year last year...at least just glancing at the last 3 years.

[nmigliore]

someone will, and they'll be smart to do it. if the yankees didn't already have too many outfielders i'd love it.

also according to park factors wrigley is not much worse than shea when it comes to home runs.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfa...amp;season=2008

How the hell is Shea more of a hitters park (in terms of HR) than Citizen's Bank Park (and Yankee Stadium for that matter)??? Unless Im just reading it wrong.. its basically saying 1.000 or over = hitters park, under 1.000 = pitcher's park.. Yet Yankee Stadium is more of a pitcher's park than Shea, lol?? If you click the Runs stat, its a bit more realistic..

Im lost on the whole HR thing, again I must be reading it wrong

If I'm reading it right it says:

Biggest Runs Park: Arlington Park (TEX)

Biggest Singles Park: Coors Field (COL)

Biggest Doubles Park: Fenway Park (BOS)

Biggest Triples Park: Arlington Park (TEX)

Biggest HR Park: Camden Yards (BAL)

Biggest Walks Park: Progressive Field (CLE)

Edited January 28, 2009 by nmigliore

[NJDevs4978]

I can't believe Dunn may be looking for a deal as low as 1 year for 5 million and nobody is jumping at that.

That's a long way from him wanting $100 million going into the offseason. Maybe some players finally realized the owners (outside of the Yankees, who apparently are done with their Tiffany's offseason shopping spree) weren't bluffing about the market this time. Garland also signed a one-year deal with Arizona, a very good move by the D'Backs.

And fwiw, Dunn's career average with RISP is .225 - which is probably 50-60 points lower than Wright, who gets killed for lack of clutch hitting. I'm actually surprised it's that low considering he gets 100 RBI's a year.

But there's got to be more to it than his on-field deficiencies or the economy even if that report's accurate, I've heard Dunn's a bit of a malcontent as well - though I'm not sure how much of that's just being on a losing team and how much is general personality.

That said, I'd even take him on a one-year deal if we weren't too left-handed already (and had an opening at first base).

Edited January 28, 2009 by Hasan4978

[nmigliore]

Honestly the way the market is appearing, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Mets land both Perez AND Sheets and even Dunn

[Triumph]

That's a long way from him wanting $100 million going into the offseason. Maybe some players finally realized the owners (outside of the Yankees, who apparently are done with their Tiffany's offseason shopping spree) weren't bluffing about the market this time. Garland also signed a one-year deal with Arizona, a very good move by the D'Backs.

And fwiw, Dunn's career average with RISP is .225 - which is probably 50-60 points lower than Wright, who gets killed for lack of clutch hitting. I'm actually surprised it's that low considering he gets 100 RBI's a year.

wright gets killed for a lack of clutch hitting because fans don't understand clutch hitting and how it's largely a myth. wright is an excellent ball-player. so is adam dunn.

But there's got to be more to it than his on-field deficiencies even, I've heard he's a bit of a malcontent as well - though I'm not sure how much of that's just being on a losing team and how much is general personality.

That said, I'd even take him on a one-year deal if we weren't too left-handed already (and had an opening at first base).

there's an opening in left field for him. there's no guarantee that tatis doesn't do a jose valentin about face. also no guarantee that daniel murphy can keep up his hitting, in which case you have two below-average LFs.

[NJDevs4978]

there's an opening in left field for him. there's no guarantee that tatis doesn't do a jose valentin about face. also no guarantee that daniel murphy can keep up his hitting, in which case you have two below-average LFs.

I'd put a bit more stock in the lefty part of that platoon (Murphy) than Tatis. If Murphy hits somewhat and Church has any kind of a pulse in right, the last thing in the world we need is a lefty bat in the outfield. Or at first base since we have Delgado there.

[nmigliore]

I'd put a bit more stock in the lefty part of that platoon (Murphy) than Tatis. If Murphy hits somewhat and Church has any kind of a pulse in right, the last thing in the world we need is a lefty bat in the outfield. Or at first base since we have Delgado there.

I think Church is a question mark.. He never seemed to find his groove after he came back from that bad concussion. Hopefully this full offseason of rest will mean production from him

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

That's a long way from him wanting $100 million going into the offseason. Maybe some players finally realized the owners (outside of the Yankees, who apparently are done with their Tiffany's offseason shopping spree) weren't bluffing about the market this time. Garland also signed a one-year deal with Arizona, a very good move by the D'Backs.

And fwiw, Dunn's career average with RISP is .225 - which is probably 50-60 points lower than Wright, who gets killed for lack of clutch hitting. I'm actually surprised it's that low considering he gets 100 RBI's a year.

But there's got to be more to it than his on-field deficiencies or the economy even if that report's accurate, I've heard Dunn's a bit of a malcontent as well - though I'm not sure how much of that's just being on a losing team and how much is general personality.

That said, I'd even take him on a one-year deal if we weren't too left-handed already (and had an opening at first base).

Even with his red flags, the guy's been hitting 40+ HRs for five straight seasons. He'll be playing for another contract next year as well. I'd definitely take him on a one-year deal...if he doesn't work out he's also very tradeable with such a managable contract. I don't think he's even on Omar's radar though.

[NJDevs4978]

I think Church is a question mark.. He never seemed to find his groove after he came back from that bad concussion. Hopefully this full offseason of rest will mean production from him

Yeah, who knows with Church, I don't think he's quite as good as he looked the first two months but I don't think he'll be as awful as he was post-concussion, he'll probably be somewhere in between the two extremes.

If he is awful then the Mets have a real problem considering they already have two offensive black holes and another question mark in LF.

I think if Omar was going to get an OF'er he'd have made a more serious run at Ibanez but he's a lefty hitter too. Manny for his idiosyncrascies would fit in so many ways, but it depends on what the market really is for him - at this point I'm not sure he gets much better than the $45 million he turned down from the Dodgers.

[nmigliore]

Yeah, who knows with Church, I don't think he's quite as good as he looked the first two months but I don't think he'll be as awful as he was post-concussion, he'll probably be somewhere in between the two extremes.

Completely agree.

If he is awful then the Mets have a real problem considering they already have two offensive black holes and another question mark in LF.

This is why I think its necessary to get a corner OF bat via free agency. Especially when the market is so dry and there are talks Dunn might end up not getting more than 5 million for 1 year.. unreal!

I think if Omar was going to get an OF'er he'd have made a more serious run at Ibanez but he's a lefty hitter too. Manny for his idiosyncrascies would fit in so many ways, but it depends on what the market really is for him - at this point I'm not sure he gets much better than the $45 million he turned down from the Dodgers.

The way the OF market is appearing, clearly it looks like Philly overpaid and over-did the Ibanez contract (I think it was 3 years for 30 million?).. Looks like you can get a bat like Dunn or Abreu for under 10 million and for 1 year. By Omar addressing things in order the way he is: bullpen-starting rotation-position players, its actually benefiting him.. If he decided to jump on an Ibanez or Dunn or Abreu early, he would look like a fool now.

*(this is if you wanna quote this)*

Edited January 28, 2009 by nmigliore

[Triumph]

ibanez is just an awful signing. awful awful awful awful. here's some look at his 'defense':

http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/6814/raul4.gif

http://i27.tinypic.com/28akex2.jpg

from baseball prospectus yesterday - keep in mind that WARP stands for Wins Above Replacement Player, and directly measures the number of a wins a particular player contributes, and that PECOTA is a projection system which predicts how well a player will do in an upcoming season:

Mets: After another agonizing near-miss of the playoffs, GM Omar Minaya addressed the team's biggest shortcoming, its bullpen, by signing Francisco Rodriguez and trading for J.J. Putz. However, Minaya has yet to substantially upgrade his corner outfielders, who ranked fourth-to-last in the league in homers (27) and OPS (747) via a combined .278/.338/.409 line amid a plague of injuries. Rookie Dan Murphy hit a promising .313/.397/.473 in 151 plate appearances, though almost exclusively against righties, but PECOTA isn't sanguine about a repeat, forecasting .263/.327/.405 and just 1.8 WARP. The system doesn't see fellow rookie and platoon-mate Nick Evans as much better (.256/.319/.428, 0.5 WARP), and keep in mind that both players' figures are projected over more than 500 PA apiece. Furthermore, Fernando Tatis, who rose from the dead to hit .297/.369/.484 in 306 PA, forecasts for just a .245/.325/.402 line and 0.7 WARP in part-time duty, while Ryan Church, ostensibly the starting right fielder, is penciled in for 1.2 WARP, again in part-time duty. If we assume some positional flexibility and project those four players' combined performance over 1200 PA, that comes out to 1.6 WARP apiece at each corner, making for a gain of 2.7 wins if the Mets instead sign Ramirez. When you've missed the postseason by a single game in each of the past two seasons, that ain't hay.

Edited January 29, 2009 by Triumph

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

ibanez is just an awful signing. awful awful awful awful. here's some look at his 'defense':

http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/6814/raul4.gif

http://i27.tinypic.com/28akex2.jpg

from baseball prospectus yesterday - keep in mind that WARP stands for Wins Above Replacement Player, and directly measures the number of a wins a particular player contributes, and that PECOTA is a projection system which predicts how well a player will do in an upcoming season:

Mets: After another agonizing near-miss of the playoffs, GM Omar Minaya addressed the team's biggest shortcoming, its bullpen, by signing Francisco Rodriguez and trading for J.J. Putz. However, Minaya has yet to substantially upgrade his corner outfielders, who ranked fourth-to-last in the league in homers (27) and OPS (747) via a combined .278/.338/.409 line amid a plague of injuries. Rookie Dan Murphy hit a promising .313/.397/.473 in 151 plate appearances, though almost exclusively against righties, but PECOTA isn't sanguine about a repeat, forecasting .263/.327/.405 and just 1.8 WARP. The system doesn't see fellow rookie and platoon-mate Nick Evans as much better (.256/.319/.428, 0.5 WARP), and keep in mind that both players' figures are projected over more than 500 PA apiece. Furthermore, Fernando Tatis, who rose from the dead to hit .297/.369/.484 in 306 PA, forecasts for just a .245/.325/.402 line and 0.7 WARP in part-time duty, while Ryan Church, ostensibly the starting right fielder, is penciled in for 1.2 WARP, again in part-time duty. If we assume some positional flexibility and project those four players' combined performance over 1200 PA, that comes out to 1.6 WARP apiece at each corner, making for a gain of 2.7 wins if the Mets instead sign Ramirez. When you've missed the postseason by a single game in each of the past two seasons, that ain't hay.

Joe and Evan (WFAN) pretty much envision the scenario many of us Met fans are dreading: Omar's going to re-sign Oliver Perez and call it an offseason. I'm glad he addressed the bullpen, but if his offseason ends with Perez re-signing then he didn't do nearly enough.

Tri, what factors figure into PECOTA? I'm guessing there's some kind of formula involved.

(PECOTA, unfortunately, makes me think of former Met infielder Bill Pecota...which makes me think of former Met manager Jeff Torborg, who said Met fans were going to love Pecota. All you need to know: Pecota stunk, Torborg stunk, and the Mets stunk. That's it. End of story.)

[Triumph]

Joe and Evan (WFAN) pretty much envision the scenario many of us Met fans are dreading: Omar's going to re-sign Oliver Perez and call it an offseason. I'm glad he addressed the bullpen, but if his offseason ends with Perez re-signing then he didn't do nearly enough.

Tri, what factors figure into PECOTA? I'm guessing there's some kind of formula involved.

(PECOTA, unfortunately, makes me think of former Met infielder Bill Pecota...which makes me think of former Met manager Jeff Torborg, who said Met fans were going to love Pecota. All you need to know: Pecota stunk, Torborg stunk, and the Mets stunk. That's it. End of story.)

PECOTA is actually named for bill pecota.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PECOTA

the formula is proprietary but basically the algorithm combs the databases for the most similar players over the last 40+ years and based on those players' career histories and the player's trajectory it spits out the average of what that player's performance will look like next year. obviously this has its flaws - the system has no way of capturing total outliers like barry bonds and ichiro suzuki, for example - but it does a pretty solid job. i don't think it's fair to expect murphy to hit something like .280/.350/.450 based on his minor league history to date. i don't think nick evans is a future major league player.

but on the other hand, the depressed free agent market means i think omar is going to have to get involved.

[Devils731]

Ya, those Murphy's numbers from them seem a little low but I certainly don't expect him to be any great offensive player next year. I think the Tri numbers seem pretty reasonable and would be a real nice season.

I do think Evan's is a major leaguer, just never a starter.

[Devils731]

Ha. Just checking MetsBlog, a lot of Met's fans apparently believe the Mets want to sign Manny but are waiting until just before individual tickets go on sale. I think that's silly but from the business perspective it'd be nice to pull off. In real life you'd never gamble that another team steals him away while you waited for that day though.

[nmigliore]

I doubt Murphy hits .263 avg next season, I could see it being around .280 avg (maybe slightly better) over a full season of starting. From the small sample (2 months) he's got a great approach at the plate and it doesn't seem like he chases many bad pitches and should draw a good amount of walks.. I expect him to be a 'solid average/high obp' kind of player in his career. I hope he bats 2nd again, if he starts in LF next year I'm pretty sure he will.. unless they wanna give that back to Castillo, but that wont last too long anyway.

Murphy's 2008 minor league stats (average, obp, and ops only):

-AA : 357 ABs, .308 avg, .374 obp, .870 ops

-AFL (winter league, after 2008 ML season ended) : 63 ABs, .397 avg, .487 obp, 1.106 ops (just quickly glancing over the players in this league it seemed like it was just a mix of talent from A ball to AAA)

(he also had very brief stints in low-A and AAA)

At least if the Mets dont sign another outfielder we will see what the kid can do over a full season.

Edited January 29, 2009 by nmigliore

[NJDevs4978]

Ha. Just checking MetsBlog, a lot of Met's fans apparently believe the Mets want to sign Manny but are waiting until just before individual tickets go on sale. I think that's silly but from the business perspective it'd be nice to pull off. In real life you'd never gamble that another team steals him away while you waited for that day though.

How are the Mets even gonna sign Manny when they still can't seal the deal with Oliver Perez after weeks of posturing (and he has no other market apparently)?

Edited January 29, 2009 by Hasan4978

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

How are the Mets even gonna sign Manny when they still can't seal the deal with Oliver Perez after weeks of posturing (and he has no other market apparently)?

Omar's clearly going to play chicken with Ollie, especially with no other suitors out there. (I know Perez has issues, but can you believe NO OTHER TEAM is interested in him?) Unfortunately it also looks like he's not going to do anything else. I'm so disgusted with Omar right now, but at the same time I'm trying to keep my spirits up and hoping that he realizes that this team in its current form is a wild-card team at best...and that's if EVERYTHING breaks right.

[nmigliore]

Omar's clearly going to play chicken with Ollie, especially with no other suitors out there. (I know Perez has issues, but can you believe NO OTHER TEAM is interested in him?) Unfortunately it also looks like he's not going to do anything else. I'm so disgusted with Omar right now, but at the same time I'm trying to keep my spirits up and hoping that he realizes that this team in its current form is a wild-card team at best...and that's if EVERYTHING breaks right.

I definitely dont think hes done. I still say he adds a corner OF bat..

But then again I was almost sure he would kick out Castillo .. but it looks like Castillo is gonna be our 2B to at least start the year

Edited January 29, 2009 by nmigliore

[nmigliore]

Mets getting closer to a deal with Ollie (3 years, could be a 4th opt. thrown in)

Update: Mets and Perez agree to 3 year/36 million dollar contract.

(btw Caribbean Series starts today at 5pm ET on MLB Network.. Venzuela vs Dominican Republic, for anyone interested)

Edited February 2, 2009 by nmigliore

[NJDevs4978]

About frigging time, glad Ollie wised up and finally admitted three years at $12 per was by far the best he was going to do and that the Mets didn't bid against themselves too much.

Of course the Mets are probably going to come back with the exact same lineup and rotation as they had last year, just a (radically) different bullpen.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

About frigging time, glad Ollie wised up and finally admitted three years at $12 per was by far the best he was going to do and that the Mets didn't bid against themselves too much.

Of course the Mets are probably going to come back with the exact same lineup and rotation as they had last year, just a (radically) different bullpen.

Yeah, for whatever the reason there didn't seem to be ANY market for Ollie at all...Omar knew it and was willing to wait Ollie out. Of course Boras couldn't admit that, so this thing had to drag out. This deal is a complete wild-card as to what the return will be...I can't say I'm turning cartwheels right now. The fact that NO ONE ELSE showed any interest doesn't exactly fill me up with confidence.

And yeah, I think Omar's done. This roster, as currently constituted, is good for 84 wins...maybe a couple more if everything breaks right. I just can't see them doing much better than that.

[Prucenterrules]

Atleast we have 1 more capable pitcher now.

[halfsharkalligatorhalfman]

Yeah, for whatever the reason there didn't seem to be ANY market for Ollie at all...

Cause he stinks. He is likely to blow up every time he goes up there. He is unreliable and if things aren't going perfectly he's a disaster. This is a stupid contract and the only reason the Mets gave it is because they are desperate for arms.