Cycle of Suck

[coldply123]

Lou hasn't made a big player for player trade in a long time. I mean a deal where you trade a player for another player who is not a rental. The last deals like this were the Arnott and Sykora deals of 2002.

Lou hasn't 'jumped the shark' (i hate this phrase with the fire of a thousand suns). What he's done is tried to build a winner every year. He's tried to do it despite some of his best pieces moving on, and some of his better pieces getting older. He's done it despite having drafts misfire on him. If you're going to not give him credit for good drafts, you also can't blame him for bad drafts. Truth is, the Devils hit a lull wrt drafting. They had a bad 2001, a bad 2002, they missed on everything besides Parise in 03, and they missed on everything besides Zajac in 04. 2005-2007 aren't looking very good either, besides what's been traded away.

Some of the inefficiencies Lou exploited have gone away. The league as a whole is much more forgiving of smaller players than it was pre-lockout. Lou stole Sykora and Parise because people didn't want to risk taking them. Ditto Brian Gionta and Scott Gomez. This would just not happen in today's NHL, imo - teams are smarter about that.

Lou has also unfortunately been saddled with Martin Brodeur and the failed belief that Brodeur is a valuable piece of the team. He's not, and that's also pre-lockout thinking. Unfortunately there's nothing to be done about this until Brodeur's contract ends. Hopefully he doesn't make the same mistake again. In fairness to Lou, it's a mistake that a lot of teams have made.

Just because these things are all true doesn't mean Lou has to go.

Fair points on most there. And I agree on the drafting. They had a 3-4 year stretch where they were god-awful and a couple meh years in and around that. I dont blame Lou for the drafts. Conte has been sort of an enigma from time to time although I think the Devils have targeted Sweden heavily of late as well as the US mens under-18 team.

I think he has tried to build a winner, but to a fault and his misfires in FA have become more pronounced or significant. He has lost the wiggle room he had in the past. Lou does have an issue with Brodeur on this team and that is of his own making.

Maybe I am spoiled, but I do think Lou is no longer at the head of the table in terms of outfoxing other GMs or exploiting loopholes or inefficiences like he did in the past. To be fair to Lou, I'd much rather have him than Brian Burke...so there's that. I am suffering from a lack of confidence right now.

[coldply123]

it's what comes with trying to win every year. you want to keep colin white and pay him undermarket? well okay, then he has to get 6 years. you want dainius zubrus and you're totally lost at center without him and handzus just got 4 years and 16 million? well, he needs 6 years. elias wants to go to chicago or the rangers coming off an amazing performance? 7 years.

lou has always tried to keep the team together by keeping players signed for a year past what is good judgment. that is coming back on him in a big way here.

Agreed. Better drafting and development would normally hide these problems, because one can always point to depth and cheap production from a guy to assuage fears of the albatross contract or aging veteran. Lou's had to plug holes and roster by sometimes reducing his flexibility in the long run to keep things humming along in the short-term.

[MantaRay]

It appears that most teams go through these cycles. Anyone remember the 06-07 Flyers? I think we're really feeling the affects of the cap starting to come home to roost this season. Hopefully this will only last one season and we'll right the ship. I did some analysis on Capgeek and it looks like a few of the talented teams might run into the same dilemma we're in:

Phil. 9 players taking up 40.75mil Cap Space 8 UFAs

Pitt. 8 Players taking up 44,25 cap space 9 UFAs

Detroit 9 players taking up 35.287mil cap space 7 UFAs

San Jose 8 players taking up 41.29mil cap space 5 UFAs

WSH 5 players taking up 27mil cap space 9 UFAs

Van 8 players taking up 38.98 in cap space 8 UFAs

NJ we have several players taking up 40.79 in cap space and 4 upcoming UFAs, but if you look further you'll notice that for 12-13 we'll have a lot more guys we can release. Many of the heavy contracts are coming off the books in the next two seasons which is more than I can say for any of the above teams that have guys that have just entered into big long term contracts.

I guess I am too spoiled by having such a high level of competitiveness if the past era of NJ Devils hockey where we didn't need a big draft pick, lost players via UFA and still found ways to win and be very competitive.

This new era of Devils hockey looks like its going to be very painful to watch for the next few years as we enter the cycle of suck.

[Triumph]

I guess I am too spoiled by having such a high level of competitiveness if the past era of NJ Devils hockey where we didn't need a big draft pick, lost players via UFA and still found ways to win and be very competitive.

This new era of Devils hockey looks like its going to be very painful to watch for the next few years as we enter the cycle of suck.

yeah, no, not really. help is certainly on the way.

[maxpower]

Lou hasn't made a big player for player trade in a long time. I mean a deal where you trade a player for another player who is not a rental. The last deals like this were the Arnott and Sykora deals of 2002.

Lou hasn't 'jumped the shark' (i hate this phrase with the fire of a thousand suns). What he's done is tried to build a winner every year. He's tried to do it despite some of his best pieces moving on, and some of his better pieces getting older. He's done it despite having drafts misfire on him. If you're going to not give him credit for good drafts, you also can't blame him for bad drafts. Truth is, the Devils hit a lull wrt drafting. They had a bad 2001, a bad 2002, they missed on everything besides Parise in 03, and they missed on everything besides Zajac in 04. 2005-2007 aren't looking very good either, besides what's been traded away.

Some of the inefficiencies Lou exploited have gone away. The league as a whole is much more forgiving of smaller players than it was pre-lockout. Lou stole Sykora and Parise because people didn't want to risk taking them. Ditto Brian Gionta and Scott Gomez. This would just not happen in today's NHL, imo - teams are smarter about that.

Lou has also unfortunately been saddled with Martin Brodeur and the failed belief that Brodeur is a valuable piece of the team. He's not, and that's also pre-lockout thinking. Unfortunately there's nothing to be done about this until Brodeur's contract ends. Hopefully he doesn't make the same mistake again. In fairness to Lou, it's a mistake that a lot of teams have made.

Just because these things are all true doesn't mean Lou has to go.

well, I don't see the Brodeur situation as being "unfortunately saddled with". he played to his contract's worth. the biggest problem the organization has is they believe defensive defensemen are worth paying for in multiples. they've lost three guys who weren't inept on the puck and never really replaced them. I guess in retrospect, they replaced Nieds with Rafalski, since it would have been hard to sign both, but I digress..

I don't think they've adapted to the change in the game since 2004. that's why I'm waiting for Lou to reach the breaking point and call in Ken Hitchcock.

I see some similiarity between Lou and George Young. huge paradigm shift in how you acquire and retain players, and an awful lot of flailing attempting to adjust.

[Sickman]

What is this being saddled with Brodeur talk? Or Elias for that matter? Do both of these contracts kind of suck right now? Sure. Obviously you don't want to pay these types of figures for a declining return but what the hell else are you supposed to do? It's a price that you pay to retain these types of players when they ARE producing for you. Isn't it kind of understood that the player likely won't be able to deliver as much during the last years of the deal?

Brodeur re-signed right out of the lockout if I'm remembering correctly. At the time he was the best keeper on this planet and still in the prime of his career. He had his best season ever in 2007. He was nearly as good in 2008 playing for a team that had all kinds of trouble scoring. Now he's almost 39, the wear & tear of 1000+ games is starting to show and he plays for one of the worst defensive teams many of us have ever witnessed in our lives. How can anybody expect things to be different given the circumstances? The contract is off the books after next year but you deal with it because the player delivered strong performances for 70% of it. It's a give and take kind of thing.

Elias is a little different because he has been kind of up and down since his last contract was signed, but like Brodeur at the time, Elias was in his prime and came off a ridiculous half a season in 2006. Throw in his work from the start of the decade and you're gonna pay a premium for these services. I can't say that Elias has necessarily lived up to his deal, but to be fair, he has been hurt here and there and has been thrown all over the lineup playing different positions. But with that said, it's only reasonable now to expect that he will decline form here on out. I can live with this though because of everything else the player provided. It's just the way it is and you either play along or you watch the player walk out the door.

Deals like Clarkson's are the ones that you are saddled with if you ask me. You're paying more then you have to for a sh!t return and there is nothing to point back at to say that the player at least contributed to some significant success. Rolston is another one. This is truly wasted money. I won't include Zubrus even though his production kind of stinks. He works hard and NJ was bent over after Gomez left. Tallinder and Kovalchuk are in their first years so it's beyond to early to judge.

Edited December 14, 2010 by Sickman

[dantesinferno]

The preceding few posts have been intelligent and objective. Voices of reason and optimism in an otherwise gloomy season so far. Mature, thoughtful opinions that give cause for hope.Thank you.

[vadvlfan]

Not me. My problem is that I think Lou has jumped the shark, and its been going on for awhile. You can't keep blaming coaches. All the greats lose their fastball eventually, even executives. Lou's track record since the 2003 Cup has been pretty bad. I don't want people giving him credit for Parise, because Lou even himself admits he defers to his scouting guys, specifically Conte.

And I give Lou a pass on Kovalchuk because I do think that was driven by Vanderbeek. I just don't have faith in Lou to recognize that the "run" is over and it's time to reload and renovate the team going forward. Lou's moves, especially with coaches and free agents have become a lather, rinse, repeat mentality. I think it's time to for Lou to step off into the sunset with nothing else to prove.

If you think about it, do you think lou wouldn't mind "going out" like this?? His (small market) team has had success always. And now we've fallin on hard times. He acceprs responsability for whats going on, and wants to atleast get us on the right path before he kicks himself upstairs and hires a GM. I think he realizes he made a couple dumbass moves (Rolston being one) We have a few kids in the pipeline that might make the grade.

[CarpathianForest]

So I know I'll get killed for this but I was thinking of moves we could make in the offseason. I think we could put together a good team with this core and still have dough left to get some decent players to plug in I left blanks on some spots because we can bring in call-ups or you guys can fill in the blanks.

Kovalchuk(6mil)-Parise(7mil)-Zajac(4.5mil)

Elias(5mil)-Josefson(975,000)-Tedenby(875,000)

Rolston(5mil)-Pelley(575,000)

Volchenkov(4.250)-Trevor Daley(3.5mil)

White(3mil)-Taormina(1mil)

Byfuglien(5mil)-Fayne/OMG/Urbom?

Brodeur(5.2mil)

Varlamov(1.5mil)

Didn't include whichever pick we get this year. Not sure they'll instantly be in the lineup. We'd have about 10mil left in cap space and I like that set up. The following year we'd have White, Marty and Rolston off the books that's another 13 in cap space we'd have. I know I'll hear it from some folks about Byfuglien's cost but good d men are hard to come by and he can play forward and defense. In contrast Jay Bouwmeester is about 7mil and he hasn't done too much.

[Pepperkorn]

SO exactly HOW did you go about acquiring them? Who did we dump and how is it that we dumped them?

THAT is the whole problem with the Lou sucks thing... exactly HOW do you think, in a real world, you could have accomplished those lines?

ALSO - any round about way you may do something like this....(trading Langs 5 mill for so-n-so's 2 million to Chicago for Byf's 5 mil... really?) is picking ahead of time a very specific line up and one you must commit to getting, by hook or by crook. That's just not the way to run things. Acquisition is an EXTREMELY fluid game. The market is beyond fluid and if you try to stick to a highly specific plan you WILL get burnt (statistically speaking anyhow )

[CarpathianForest]

Off the top of my head you lose Langs, Tallinder, Arnott, Clarkson. DBuff is a free agent at the end of this season, so is Trevor Daley, so it's entirely possible.

[ThreeCups]

Off the top of my head you lose Langs, Tallinder, Arnott, Clarkson. DBuff is a free agent at the end of this season, so is Trevor Daley, so it's entirely possible.

I hope Arnie takes a lesser salary and returns.

[Pepperkorn]

Off the top of my head you lose Langs, Tallinder, Arnott, Clarkson. DBuff is a free agent at the end of this season, so is Trevor Daley, so it's entirely possible.

I was skimming -- I thought you meant we should have gone with these lines THIS season. I thought you lost it.

Well.. I still think, that but it makes a little more sense!

Edited December 14, 2010 by Pepperkorn

[CarpathianForest]

I had to go to a meeting so I wasn't able to finish my last post. You get rid of Langs, Arnott, Clarkson, Zubrus, Greene, Tallinder. Most of those guys can be traded away for 2nd and 3rd round picks which doesn't affect our cap and can come in handy for future trades. You could probably even bring in a few guys to fill in for the third line. Resigning Arnott is cool if you can get him for 2-3mil. You've got a young core of talent Buff(25), Parise(26), Kovy(27), Daley(27)Anton Volchenkov(28) and White(33) and Elias(34) aren't waay over the hill.

You've still got Marty for a season to mentor Varlamov who is only 22. So from my previous list you've got 16 players already. Your roster needs to be 22 players and we can fill out the remaining spots with call ups or a couple of grinders from another team. The season after that White, Marty and Rolston come off the books. That's another 13 million available to spend. Thing is is to move in a young core of talent. It's entirely possible to do this offseason.

Buff sounds expensive but he's a Cup winner, most likely a Norris nominee and he leads D Men with 32 points. That's a lot better than other D Men like JBouw(7mil), Hamhuis(4.5mil), Timonen(6mil) who haven't done much of anything. Plus he's versatile.

[Triumph]

I had to go to a meeting so I wasn't able to finish my last post. You get rid of Langs, Arnott, Clarkson, Zubrus, Greene, Tallinder. Most of those guys can be traded away for 2nd and 3rd round picks which doesn't affect our cap and can come in handy for future trades. You could probably even bring in a few guys to fill in for the third line. Resigning Arnott is cool if you can get him for 2-3mil. You've got a young core of talent Buff(25), Parise(26), Kovy(27), Daley(27)Anton Volchenkov(28) and White(33) and Elias(34) aren't waay over the hill.

You've still got Marty for a season to mentor Varlamov who is only 22. So from my previous list you've got 16 players already. Your roster needs to be 22 players and we can fill out the remaining spots with call ups or a couple of grinders from another team. The season after that White, Marty and Rolston come off the books. That's another 13 million available to spend. Thing is is to move in a young core of talent. It's entirely possible to do this offseason.

Buff sounds expensive but he's a Cup winner, most likely a Norris nominee and he leads D Men with 32 points. That's a lot better than other D Men like JBouw(7mil), Hamhuis(4.5mil), Timonen(6mil) who haven't done much of anything. Plus he's versatile.

most of those people cannot be traded for 2nd or 3rd round picks. you want to overrate dustin byfuglien on the strength of 30 games. not to mention that byfuglien is an RFA, not UFA, after this deal. just keep inventing fantasy scenarios where something crazy happens like ilya kovalchuk gets traded to NJ and then signs here.

[CarpathianForest]

I bet you most of those guys can be traded for 2nd or third round picks especially when the trade deadline comes around and playoff bound teams need to fill roles. Although Buff is an RFA doesn't mean we can't make him an offer. We don't know what teams he can deal with. We're not in the Thrashers division after all. And if I'm Lou I'd bank 5 mil on a guy who is 25, humongous, can play the point as well as stand in front of the net, is a Cup winner and probably a Norris candidate. We signed Henrik Tallinder for 3.75.

[Pepperkorn]

I like Tallinder though.. and Arnott and Zubrus as well.

Tommy Albelin is the American version of Tallinder --- GET IT?

that's funny...

yeah -- that came to me yesterday as I was driving to work and thinking about the Swedish psyche. The whole Pippi Longstockings thing and then I started reading the Steig Larson books -- OMG and immediately I was saying it's PIPPI!!!! I just had to sort of come to terms with the REAL Swedish mindset -- which is so fascinating!! My family is not at all Swedish but there was a strong American Swedish influence in MN which actually sort of meshes in with the American Germanic thing.... Teutonic peoples --- My husband is coming to terms with the whole Scottish thing -- no one in his family has Scottish heritage (Swedish and Jewish - a Jewthren) So he's doing the whole Gottland is Scotland and We're dealing with our warlike tendencies too ANYHOW -- the Swedish brain is so... the sense of humor!! Are they stupid and unfunny? My old boss from Norway loved to tell me so... but they so are NOT. it's so subtle.... anyhow so... so Tommy Albelin is an outlier in the Swedish world -- he's very American in many ways!! He's so outgoing!!! yeah -- so...

I'm also preparing our Julboard since we can't go to Uncle Jan's this year ... and I have confirmation the Nycelharpa will be in the house Christmas eve! and my husband told my daughter to put the advent wreath on her head last night ... but just for a joke and stuff... It's getting nuts -- I'M getting nuts!! MORE NUTS than usual... and so I blame Sweden

and so then I blame Tallinder

So he has to stick around until I come to terms with it all in teh next few years

[Marshall]

I like Tallinder though.. and Arnott and Zubrus as well.

Tommy Albelin is the American version of Tallinder --- GET IT?

that's funny...

yeah -- that came to me yesterday as I was driving to work and thinking about the Swedish psyche. The whole Pippi Longstockings thing and then I started reading the Steig Larson books -- OMG and immediately I was saying it's PIPPI!!!! I just had to sort of come to terms with the REAL Swedish mindset -- which is so fascinating!! My family is not at all Swedish but there was a strong American Swedish influence in MN which actually sort of meshes in with the American Germanic thing.... Teutonic peoples --- My husband is coming to terms with the whole Scottish thing -- no one in his family has Scottish heritage (Swedish and Jewish - a Jewthren) So he's doing the whole Gottland is Scotland and We're dealing with our warlike tendencies too ANYHOW -- the Swedish brain is so... the sense of humor!! Are they stupid and unfunny? My old boss from Norway loved to tell me so... but they so are NOT. it's so subtle.... anyhow so... so Tommy Albelin is an outlier in the Swedish world -- he's very American in many ways!! He's so outgoing!!! yeah -- so...

I'm also preparing our Julboard since we can't go to Uncle Jan's this year ... and I have confirmation the Nycelharpa will be in the house Christmas eve! and my husband told my daughter to put the advent wreath on her head last night ... but just for a joke and stuff... It's getting nuts -- I'M getting nuts!! MORE NUTS than usual... and so I blame Sweden

and so then I blame Tallinder

So he has to stick around until I come to terms with it all in teh next few years

First a terror attack and now we're introverted. Gimme a break.

[Pepperkorn]

Awe see? So help me out here!! My husband uncles are this crazy mix of wonderful and evil! Hysterically funny - but then MEAN! Really mean dry wit - and violent practical jokes!! and everything is so dead-pan. Not introverted ... just BEYOND subtle. but then everyone is also massively huggy! Everyone is hugging everyone.... true - after a few hits of glogg.

So how would you describe yourself and your culture?

[CarpathianForest]

Awe see? So help me out here!! My husband uncles are this crazy mix of wonderful and evil! Hysterically funny - but then MEAN! Really mean dry wit - and violent practical jokes!! and everything is so dead-pan. Not introverted ... just BEYOND subtle. but then everyone is also massively huggy! Everyone is hugging everyone.... true - after a few hits of glogg.

So how would you describe yourself and your culture?

Wouldn't expect anything less from the culture that gave us Ingmar Bergman

Edited December 14, 2010 by CarpathianForest

[devlman]

Basically, unless you have amazing management and great luck to get star players without high draft picks (ie, Detroit & Zetterberg). It's just very hard to stay good year after year when you barely have a 1st round draft pick.

Pretty much what I said...its a communist system

[CarpathianForest]

Pretty much what I said...its a communist system

Please explain your reasoning at how a salary cap=communism.

[Triumph]

Pretty much what I said...its a communist system

if it were a pure capitalist system, the devils would be even more behind the 8-ball.

[CarpathianForest]

+1 Triumph. If we didn't have a cap then teams would have big roster costs and the fans would have to pay through the nose for tickets.

[ATLL765]

There's no way we're getting rid of Tallinder after we just signed him to a multi year deal. Also, Lou is opposed to offer sheets IIRC, so I would baffled if he changed his mind on it just for Byfuglien.

IMO Arnott is not worth resigning unless it is for less than 2.5mil. 2-2.2mil sounds ok for a guy that should be slotting into a 3rd line role because at his age, he's not going to be able to put up top 6 points for much longer. We really do need a top centerman to play with Kovy. Zajac has always been a #2 Center in my eyes, but playing with Parise, he really clicks and that's a good thing that we can push him further than where he could go on his own, but we really need a center to play on the top line with Kovy. Not that we have a top line when Parise gets back, it's more like line 1A and line 1B.

So 2011 offseason wishlist is top center for kovy and dman who can put up points and run the PP. Can we coerce Niedermayer to come out of retirement for one more year and play for 2mil? That's my fantasy.

Edited December 15, 2010 by ATLL765