NHL Entry Draft 2004

[LL Cool NJ]

http://www.forecaster.ca/hockeynews/hockey...raft-MockDraft1

1. Washington Capitals: Alexander Ovechkin, LW, Dynamo Moscow (Russia)

The consensus best player available for the 2004 draft, Ovechkin will be asked to lead Washington's NHL revival. The Capitals may receive a few strong offers for the No. 1 overall selection, but will ultimately decide to hold onto the pick with the hope Ovechkin can sell more tickets in D.C. He'll be asked to contribute right away to the Caps cause.

2. Pittsburgh Penguins: Evgeni Malkin, C, Metallurg Magnitogorsk (Russia)

As soon as the Penguins found out they had lost the 2004 Draft Lottery to Washington, they quickly forgot about Ovechkin and focused squarely on Malkin. Without a legitimate No. 1 center to eventually take over for captain/owner Mario Lemieux, choosing Malkin at No. 2 for the Pens is a no-brainer. Signing him to play in North America will be a challenge, however.

3. Chicago Blackhawks: Lauri Tukonen, RW, Blues Espoo (Finland)

The 'Hawks could go in several directions with the No. 3 pick: A big scoring winger such as Tukonen, a potential stalwart defenseman in Cam Barker, a promising No. 1 center in Rostislav Olesz or even a trade down for more immediate help. In the end, they'll surprise a few people with the selection of Tukonen--who'll become Tuomo Ruutu's linemate right away.

4. Columbus Blue Jackets: Cam Barker, D, Medicine Hat Tigers (WHL)

Jackets GM Doug MacLean will gamble that Barker is available in the No. 4 slot, or he may decide to give up an extra asset(s) to move up to the third position just to secure Barker--the best all-around defenseman available in 2004. If the 'Hawks decide to take him, look for MacLean to trade down from the fourth pick to secure extra picks or more immediate help.

5. Phoenix Coyotes: Rostislav Olesz, C, HC Vitkovice (Czech Republic)

The Coyotes will mull over several options at No. 5, including goaltender Alvaro Montoya and strapping winger Andrew Ladd but finally settle on Olesz--who may have challenged Malkin for the No. 2 draft position had he not suffered a concussion at the 2004 WJC tournament. Olesz is the big, talented center Phoenix needs to compete regularly with the best in the West.

6. New York Rangers: Andrew Ladd, LW, Calgary Hitmen (WHL)

The Blueshirts are a team in full-blown reconstruction mode, and will use the 2004 draft to add several potential building blocks. It begins with Ladd, arguably the best natural left wing not named Alexander Ovechkin available in this year's draft crop. If Phoenix (or perhaps Chicago) decides to pass on Rostislav Olesz, the Rangers will have a major dilemma on their hands.

7. Florida Panthers: Boris Valabik, D, Kitchener Rangers (OHL)

Consider the No. 7 draft position to be up for grabs. If the Panthers decide to keep the pick, and the likes of Tukonen, Barker, Olesz and Ladd are all gone, they may opt for a need selection in the towering Valabik. Florida may also decide to trade down so as to add an asset(s), while either selecting the player they want (Valabik) anyway or opting for more immediate help.

8. Carolina Hurricanes: Robbie Schremp, C, London Knights (OHL)

The hometown franchise at every draft usually tries to make fans happy with their initial selection. Schremp is one of the most exciting players available in 2004, and the Hurricanes need all the offensive players they can get. As a result, they'll pick Schremp with the hope he can do in 2004-05 what fellow center Eric Staal (No. 2 overall in 2003) provided Carolina this past season.

9. Mighty Ducks of Anaheim: A.J. Thelen, D, Michigan State University (CCHA)

While the Ducks will enter the draft proceedings without former GM Bryan Murray, the team won't change its draft strategy in Round 1. As a result, Thelen will be the target as their future No. 1 or 2 rearguard. In order to grab him, however, Anaheim may have to move up to the No. 7 position to secure his rights, since he's coveted by several clubs.

10. Atlanta Thrashers: Alexander Radulov, RW, Dynamo Moscow 2 (Russia 2)

The No. 10 draft position is another slot up for grabs. Radulov doesn't necessarily fit Atlanta's draft needs but GM Don Waddell could decide to take the best player available in Round 1. He may also receive plenty of trade offers at No. 10, with potential targets Radulov, Al Montoya and fellow 'keeper Marek Schwarz all expected to garner a lot of attention.

11. Los Angeles Kings: Marek Schwarz, G, Sparta Praha (Czech Republic)

Securing a netminder in Round 1 is a no-brainer for the Kings. Schwarz and Al Montoya could both be had with the No. 11 selection, which would force the organization to choose between two goalkeepers they like a lot. The decision will likely be made for them, if another club moves up to No. 7 or 10 in order to grab a goalie. Look for L.A. to try their luck with the flashier Schwarz.

12. Minnesota Wild: Drew Stafford, RW, U of North Dakota (WCHA)

The Wild may be tempted to select whichever netminder the Kings leave them--if one of Schwarz or Montoya is still on the board. However, look for GM Doug Risebrough to prefer local kid Stafford at No. 12. With 2003 pick (20th overall) Brent Burns converting from right wing to defense, adding Stafford to the club's right side makes a lot of sense.

13. Buffalo Sabres: Ladislav Smid, D, HC Liberec (Czech Republic)

The Sabres are expected to pick a defenseman at No. 13, and the choices are likely to come down to two Slovaks (Boris Valabik and Andrej Meszaros) and a Czech (Smid). If Florida passes on Valabik--and no other team makes a move up to secure his rights--he should be Buffalo's choice. Otherwise, they'll prefer Smid's two-way game to the offensive potential of Meszaros.

14. Edmonton Oilers: Alex Picard, LW, Lewiston MAINEiacs (QMJHL)

With two first round picks this year, the Oilers will try to draft based on long-term needs. They should begin the process with a player of significant offensive upside. The choices will likely be left-wingers Picard and Wojtek Wolski, and centers Travis Zajac and Kyle Chipchura. The Oilers love selecting Alberta natives but won't be able to pass up the chance to draft slick Picard.

15. Nashville Predators: Travis Zajac, C, Salmon Arm (BCHL)

The Predators will focus on the center position in Round 1, since it's their greatest organizational weakness. Zajac, Chipchura, Jakub Sindel, Johannes Salmonsson and Petteri Nokelainen may all be considered at No. 15 but it may come down to Zajac's long-term potential versus Chipchura's all-around game. Nashville GM David Poile could go in either direction.

16. New York Islanders: Kyle Chipchura, C, Prince Albert Raiders (WHL)

The Islanders have targeted Chipchura for a while, so they may decide to move up in the first round in order to secure his draft rights. With Alexei Yashin, Michael Peca and Dave Scatchard up the middle, the Isles can afford to be patient with Chipchura--though one of the aforementioned vets could be moved in a cost-cutting move.

17. St. Louis Blues: Alvaro Montoya, G, University of Michigan (CCHA)

The Blues are targeting scoring help in this year's draft, though goaltending remains an issue within the organization. If Montoya (or Marek Schwarz for that matter) is available at No. 17, St. Louis GM Larry Pleau will gladly take him--despite the fact he drafted netminders Konstantin Barulin and Chris Beckford-Tseu a year ago. Otherwise, he will target a scoring winger.

18. Montreal Canadiens: Wojtek Wolski, LW, Brampton Battalion (OHL)

The Canadiens need size, especially at the center position. Therefore, they may target the likes of Kyle Chipchura, Bruce Graham and Petteri Nokelainen in Round 1. However, Wolski may fall into their laps at No. 18. Since they could use more scoring wingers as well, the Habs would take the best player available (Wolski) if he starts to slip down the rankings.

19. Calgary Flames: Petteri Nokelainen, C, SaiPa Lappeenranta (Finland)

Fresh off an outstanding Stanley Cup playoff run, the Flames will look for more help up front. It takes a certain type of player to play Darryl Sutter-type hockey, and Nokelainen may have the two-way game Sutter is looking for. Also, Sutter is feeling good about Finland these days, since he received an outstanding return on investments Miikka Kiprusoff and Ville Nieminen.

20. Dallas Stars: Andrej Meszaros, D, Dukla Trencin (Slovakia)

The Stars are expected to target a first-round defenseman. Slovak Meszaros could be a perfect heir to Sergei Zubov's power play throne down the road, though Dallas GM {Doug Armstrong] also covets mammoth countryman Boris Valabik--Armstrong would probably need to move up in the order to secure the latter. Jeff Schultz, Mike Green and Wes O'Neill are also targets.

21. Colorado Avalanche: Lauri Korpikoski, C/W, TPS Turku jr. (Finland jr.)

With Peter Forsberg likely to announce his retirement from the NHL, and Paul Kariya as well as Teemu Selanne becoming unrestricted free agents, the Avalanche need to address their forward situation for both in the short term and long run. Korpikoski's outstanding surge up the draft charts should propel him into the first round, and Colorado is a natural fit for the gifted Finn.

22. New Jersey Devils: Bruce Graham, C, Moncton Wildcats (QMJHL)

The Devils have a penchant for drafting off the radar, but they are expected to select based on organizational need in Round 1 this time around. New Jersey lacks size up front, and especially at the center position. They'd love to secure Kyle Chipchura but would have to trade up to get him. Therefore, look for GM Lou Lamoriello to take a flyer on 6-6 giant pivot Graham.

23. Ottawa Senators: Kyle Wharton, D, Ottawa 67's (OHL)

The Senators used to draft heavily in Europe, especially when Jarmo Kekalainen--now with the St. Louis Blues--was calling the shots at the draft table. Things have changed under GM John Muckler, however. Muckler will continue to seek more grit and character for his roster. As a result, selecting defensive defenseman Wharton--a local product--makes a lot of sense.

24. New York Rangers (from Toronto): Jakub Sindel, C/RW, Sparta Praha (Czech Republic)

Following the trade that sent long-time Blueshirt Brian Leetch to Toronto, the Rangers will choose in the first round for the second time this year. While they may decide to take one forward and one defenseman in Round 1, Sindel's scoring potential may be too good to pass up. Also, there is already a strong Czech presence on Broadway (Jaromir Jagr, Bobby Holik, etc.).

25. Edmonton (from Philadelphia): Devan Dubnyk, G, Kamloops Blazers (WHL)

With the second of their first-round selections, the Oilers are expected to kill two birds with one stone: Add more goaltending depth to the organization, while selecting a local product in the process. Dubnyk would join Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers as first-round picks vying for the 'goaltender-of-the-future' label in Edmonton.

26. Vancouver Canucks: Johannes Salmonsson, LW/C, Djurgardens IF (Sweden)

The Canucks will begin their search for long-term replacements for All-Star forwards Markus Naslund and Todd Bertuzzi in Round 1. Salmonsson has the talent to go in the top 10 of the 2004 draft, but didn't play to expectations because of shoulder problems in 2003-04. Still, new Vancouver GM Dave Nonis could make an early statement by grabbing Salmonsson.

27. Washington Capitals (from Boston): Jeff Schultz, D, Calgary Hitmen (WHL)

After taking Ovechkin with the first pick overall, the Capitals are expected to address their major weakness along the blueline with their following two first-round draft picks. Schultz has the potential to see a ton of ice time as a stabilizing force, which should appeal to Caps GM George McPhee. Schultz also possesses loads of upside, but is a long-term project.

28. San Jose Sharks: Blake Wheeler, RW, Breck High School (USHSW)

The Sharks are a young, fast-rising team in the Western Conference. As a result, there are no specific needs within the organization. GM Doug Wilson can afford to be patient with a high-school player such as Wheeler, who'll probably spend at least the next three years in the NCAA ranks. If Wilson prefers to go for a defenseman in Round 1, Wes O'Neill may be his choice.

29. Washington Capitals (from Detroit): Mike Green, D, Saskatoon Blades (WHL)

Green, Wes O'Neill, Kirill Lyamin, Johan Fransson and Sami Lepisto could all be Washington's choice as their third pick of Round 1. Green may have a slight edge because of his combination of physical play and offensive potential. He's also a right-handed shot, which may be a determining factor when GM McPhee steps up to the podium for the third time.

30. Tampa Bay Lightning: Cory Schneider, G, Phillips-Andover High School (USHSE)

The Stanley Cup champs are loaded with young, gifted offensive players and plenty of blueline depth. Therefore, GM Jay Feaster is expected to address his club's lack of future netminders in Round 1. After Marek Schwarz, Al Montoya and Devan Dubnyk are taken, Schneider or David Shantz could be Tampa Bay's target--since they are both fringe first-round prospects.

Posted on June 8 at 10:14pm ET

However, with lou lams, who knows what will happen.

Does anyone know how Lou's success rate is with first rounders?

[aylbert]

I believe Lou has been around since 1987... if so, shame on me for being wrong.

1987- 2nd overall: LW, Brendan Shanahan... good

HINDSIGHT PICK: C, Joe Sakic, chosen 15th overall

1988- 12th overall: D, Corey Foster... BUST!

HINDSIGHT PICK: RW, Mark Recchi, chosen 67th overall

1989- 5th overall, RW, Bill Guerin... good ... 18th overall, C Jason Miller BUST!

HINDSIGHT PICK: Best Option. HINDSIGHT PICK: D, Niklas Lidstrom, chosen 53rd overall

1990- 20th overall, G, Martin Brodeur... GOOD!!!

HINDSIGHT PICK: Best Option (BEST in CLASS)

1991- 3rd overall, D, Scott Niedmermayer... GOOD!!! 11th overall, LW Brian Rolston... good.

HINDSIGHT PICK: Good, option: Peter Forsrberg 6th overall HINDSIGHT PICK: Good, option: Naslund, Kovalev choosen 16, 15.

1992- 18th overall, D, Jason Smith... good

HINDSIGHT PICK: Martin Straka, chosen 19th.

1993- 13th overall, C, Dennis Pederson... good? (fair?)

HINDSIGHT PICK: Todd Bertuzi, chosen 23rd

1994- 25th overall, LW, Vadim Sharifijanov... BUST!!!

HINDSIGHT PICK: Patrik Elias, chosen 51st by US... next option: Chris Drury, chosen 72nd

1995- 18th overall, C, Petr Sykora... good.

HINDSIGHT PICK: Best Option... alternative: Mar Savard chosen 91st

1996- 10th overall, D, Lance Ward... good. (decent?) (didnt sign- reentered)

HINDSIGHT PICK: Marco Sturm, chosen 21st

1997- 24th overall, G, JF Damphouse... appearing to be a BUST!!

HINDSIGHT PICK: Brendan Morrow, chosen 25th

1998- 26th overall, D, Van Ryn, good. (didnt sign)... 27th overall, C, Scott Gomez, good...

HINDSIGHT PICK: Scott Gome, chosen 27th by US... next option: Mike Ribeiro, chosen 45th?

1999- 27th overall, G, Ari Ahohen, undecided.

HINDSIGHT PICK: Frantisek Kaberle, 76th overall

2000- 22nd overall, D, David Hale, good.

HINDSIGHT PICK: too soon

2001- 28th overall, C, Adrian Foster, undecided.

HINDSIGHT PICK: too soon

2002- no pick.

HINDSIGHT PICK: Bad year past the top 15.

2003- 17th overall, C, Zach Parise... undecided. GOOD!!!

HINDSIGHT PICK: too soon

---------------------

Good: 12 (63.1%)

BUSTS!: 4 (21.0%)

Undecided: 3 (15.7%)

Hopefully all the undecided's become good.... make it 78.9% or 4 out of 5 1st rounders shape up to be quality players... not bad considered out consant 20th or later picks

Edited June 15, 2004 by aylbert

[PeteyNice]

Our draft is not really Lou. Credit has to go to Dave Conte who is our head scout and draft guru.

[LL Cool NJ]

So, how long has Conte been the scouting director?

I know that the Devils have had a strong history with the draft. How tight (or loose) are the Lou's reins when it comes to the draft?

[GA Devil]

I'm enough of a geek that I did my own mock draft. I had the Devils picking Jeff Shultz. The size is needed more on the Blueline me-thinks.

[Lateralous]

I believe Lou has been around since 1987... if so, shame on me for being wrong.

1987- 2nd overall: LW, Brendan Shanahan...

Edited June 15, 2004 by PhillyDevil

[vadvlfan]

Devs are sorely thin on the blueline. Giroux is not an nhl calibre d man. God knows everyone sucks on the farm. I think we need veteran and draft help.

Vince

[aylbert]

I don't mean to nit-pick (sp?), but when discussing the Devils draft record, I don't think it is fair to call Corey Foster a bad pick, since no one else picked after him in the 1st rd had much of a career in the NHL either. Its unrealistic to think we might have taken Recchi with the 12th.

For me, I have always thought a good way to judge draft picks was to see who was taken right behind our pick, that way you are taking into account, what was realistically being looked at, at the time, and you can determined whether or not we made the right decision. I usually look at the next 2-3 picks for our first round selections and the next 5 or so in the 2nd round and later.

For example, I consider the Denis Pederson pick a bad one, not because Bertuzzi was picked 10 spots later, but because Adam Deadmarsh was the very next pick. Other ones that don't look so good in hindsight using this criteria are:

1997 24th pick - JF Damphousse - Brendan Morrow was the very next pick

1994 25th pick - Vadim Sharifijanov - Rhett Warrener was taken 27th

1989 18th pick - Jason Miller - Olaf Kolzig was the next pick (Hard to call this a bad pick though, since if we had taken Kolzig, we would have never taken Marty, but Adam Foote was taken at 22)

1999 42nd pick - Mike Commodore - Jordan Leopold was taken at 44

Where as, even if Adrian Foster is a bust, it shouldn't be considered a big deal since the next 3 picks were Adam Munro, Dave Steckel and Matt Spiller. Same with Ahonen. As of yet, no one picked immediately after him has done much.

Edited June 16, 2004 by aylbert

[Lateralous]

Devs are sorely thin on the blueline. Giroux is not an nhl calibre d man. God knows everyone sucks on the farm. I think we need veteran and draft help.

Vince

Mind you, I have never seen any of these guys play but from what I've read, Mike Green seems like a pretty good pick at 22. He is listed as a tough 2 way defenseman and has a RIGHT HANDED SHOT. The Hockey News says his stock dropped because he played on a dreadful team. He's also is one of the older players in his draft class, so he may not be that far away from playing (2 years?) on the big club. Has anyone actually seen this guy play that might have an opinion?

[Jerrydevil]

Aylbert, I don't mean to nitpick, but I think you're wrong.

The best way to judge a GM's draft performance is analyzing the players' worth four or five years down the road. Corey Foster was a bust, I don't care how weak the draft was.

All GMs are not going to hit a homer every time. But Lou has hit as many homers as anyone. It's amazing how many very good players he has drafted....and not just in the first round (but we all know that).

[Lateralous]

Aylbert, I don't mean to nitpick, but I think you're wrong.

The best way to judge a GM's draft performance is analyzing the players' worth four or five years down the road. Corey Foster was a bust, I don't care how weak the draft was.

All GMs are not going to hit a homer every time. But Lou has hit as many homers as anyone. It's amazing how many very good players he has drafted....and not just in the first round (but we all know that).

Corey Foster was definately a bust, but IMO you can't call it a bad pick because there was no one else to pick. Sure there were guys picked in the later rounds, but of the guys that were realistically being considered for the first round, no one available at 12 ever turned out to be a good player in the NHL.

[NJDevs4978]

Sykora was supposed to be a 3rd rounder, and we wound up taking him in the 1st.

Sykora was never thought of as a third-rounder, in fact if it wasn't for his injury history he would have been a top five pick easy. Lou got a steal in the middle of the round because of it.

[Devils731]

Sykora was supposed to be a 3rd rounder, and we wound up taking him in the 1st.

Sykora was never thought of as a third-rounder, in fact if it wasn't for his injury history he would have been a top five pick easy. Lou got a steal in the middle of the round because of it.

Very true, Sykora was thought of as a huge talent and a shoulder injury playing in the IHL took out the second half of the season so teams worried about him being injury prone. Similar to the Adrian Foster situation where a talented guy drops on injury fears, high risk and high reward picks.

-Scott

[insanity_gallops]

Devs are sorely thin on the blueline. Giroux is not an nhl calibre d man. God knows everyone sucks on the farm. I think we need veteran and draft help.

Vince

The kids in the farm system aren't terrible... they're just not ready for the NHL yet. Kadeykin will hopefully make the transition to North American hockey this year. There are good expectations for a defenseman like Matt DeMarchi, and there are guys like Chvatal and Redlihs bouncing around that could make something of themselves.

Plus I'd dispute Giroux's NHL-readiness. I think that this year he showed that he was capable of playing at the NHL level, though I don't expect him to log a ton of ice time.

[sammyk]

Kadeykin will hopefully make the transition to North American hockey this year.

I thought he's already been playing in North America for the past couple of years.

[vadvlfan]

Devs are sorely thin on the blueline.  Giroux is not an nhl calibre d man.  God knows everyone sucks on the farm.  I think we need veteran and draft help.

Vince

The kids in the farm system aren't terrible... they're just not ready for the NHL yet. Kadeykin will hopefully make the transition to North American hockey this year. There are good expectations for a defenseman like Matt DeMarchi, and there are guys like Chvatal and Redlihs bouncing around that could make something of themselves.

Plus I'd dispute Giroux's NHL-readiness. I think that this year he showed that he was capable of playing at the NHL level, though I don't expect him to log a ton of ice time.

What I meant was the rats players are not able to be called up in a pinch. We still need a Sean Hill type, & rats need a full year with ftorek. most of our d-men (rats)

are a minus 10 & up) I hope Kadeykin can step in . He was a minus 4 on the sarnia sting. Maybe he's ready for the ahl.

Vince

[aylbert]

Sykora was supposed to be a 3rd rounder, and we wound up taking him in the 1st.

Sykora was never thought of as a third-rounder, in fact if it wasn't for his injury history he would have been a top five pick easy. Lou got a steal in the middle of the round because of it.

Very true, Sykora was thought of as a huge talent and a shoulder injury playing in the IHL took out the second half of the season so teams worried about him being injury prone. Similar to the Adrian Foster situation where a talented guy drops on injury fears, high risk and high reward picks.

-Scott

I thought it was the shoulder injury that dropped him from a 1st rounder down to a believed later round... Ill just say Im wrong; I prolly am... but I thought the shoulder was believed never to be the same again.... and thereby the player never the same....

[Jerrydevil]

Vadvlfan, there's no two ways about it. The Devils could use at least one veteran, NHL defenseman, and if there's hockey next year, I think Lamoriello will try to get one. It's the third time I've said it on njdevs.com, but Keith Carney would be nice.

[sundstrom]

carney is an expensive option...look for the sean browns of the league, expecially if there's some sort of cap.

[Jerrydevil]

Maybe Carney won't be so expensive with the new CBA?

Boy, there are a lot of unknowns.

[aylbert]

Maybe Carney won't be so expensive with the new CBA?

Boy, there are a lot of unknowns.

Carney already resigned though (5/12)... so it would be a trading option not a signing option.