New Kovy Update ("As the Kovy Turns")

[DH26]

the original post report had it at 7 yrs $60 mil which is just over 8.5 and nobody was complaining really. And now it's 8.8 and everyone's going crazy. It's $300,000 aka not a big deal

[NJDevs4978]

I'm going to throw up if that's true. That's way too much money, and I don't know why Lou would go that high. It doesn't make sense.

Very little about the Kovy treatment has made sense from the moment we got him...from letting him freelance and stay out for four minute power plays to giving him a Rangers-like contract to re-sign. Christ, I get that he's important from the business aspect and I like that he was one of the few to show heart last year but this would feel like a pyhrric victory.

If you can promise me that we get rid of Rolston and Salvador or White relatively pain-free with no other casualties this offseason then manage to re-sign Zach before arbitration preferably then I'll say fine, give Kovy what he wants but if I'm Zach's agent now I'm asking for $9 million, no ifs ands or buts.

[The Facepainter]

This also is the same numbers in the earlier rumor today which was 60-63mil over 7 years.

8.8 works out to about 62 over 7 years.

[DH26]

Very little about the Kovy treatment has made sense from the moment we got him...from letting him freelance and stay out for four minute power plays to giving him a Rangers-like contract to re-sign. Christ, I get that he's important from the business aspect and I like that he was one of the few to show heart last year but this would feel like a pyhrric victory.

If you can promise me that we get rid of Rolston and Salvador or White relatively pain-free with no other casualties this offseason then manage to re-sign Zach before arbitration preferably then I'll say fine, give Kovy what he wants but if I'm Zach's agent now I'm asking for $9 million, no ifs ands or buts.

but you're not getting it next year before arbitration. He could get that per year if he signed something like a 15 yr deal though. He'd have to wait an extra year to get it unrestricted and usually players like him don't make it to free agency

[Neb00rs]

Very little about the Kovy treatment has made sense from the moment we got him...from letting him freelance and stay out for four minute power plays to giving him a Rangers-like contract to re-sign. Christ, I get that he's important from the business aspect and I like that he was one of the few to show heart last year but this would feel like a pyhrric victory.

If you can promise me that we get rid of Rolston and Salvador or White relatively pain-free with no other casualties this offseason then manage to re-sign Zach before arbitration preferably then I'll say fine, give Kovy what he wants but if I'm Zach's agent now I'm asking for $9 million, no ifs ands or buts.

Addressing all posts:

A. Kovy isn't going to Russia

B: If 8.8 is correct then he is making 61.6 over 7 years, which isn't much higher than the reported 60 mill.

C. WE NEED (not should) to get rid of 2 of either Rolston, Salvador, Zubrus or White (Zuby ad White are hard to let go of but we might have to move them)

D. Parise will never get 9 million dollars a year nor will he ask for it, never. If he asks for that Lou will laugh in his face and be like, "no really, how much you asking for?" At the very most he gets 8, but I put it at about 7.5

but you're not getting it next year before arbitration. He could get that per year if he signed something like a 15 yr deal though. He'd have to wait an extra year to get it unrestricted and usually players like him don't make it to free agency

Let me get this straight: You're saying that Parise can get 9 mill a year if he signs for 15 yrs?

Edited July 6, 2010 by ben00rs

[Sickman]

I'm going to throw up if that's true. That's way too much money, and I don't know why Lou would go that high. It doesn't make sense.

Yeah, I just read that. Dagoon pretty much nailed the Kovy and Jokinen trades a couple days before they happened. I would normally be excited, but I don't like that contract at all. We'll have no choice but to go with a very young roster, who might not all be ready. Salvadore seems like the most obvious to go at 2.9. But up front we might lose someone very valuable like Zubrus, Lags and/or Elias. Rolston would be a miracle.

Anyway the contract in itself does not sound good at 8.8. He is not worth that money. That's an over payment by about 1.5-2 million. I hope his numbers are wrong.

It's steep for sure but if you want to land a big fish like Kovalchuk you're going to have to pony up. Look at Rolston at 5 million. Ilya is only worth 1.5 million more? That would be hard to justify. And that would mean he wouldn't even get a raise on this contract. Gomez at 7 million? Granted, all these contracts are crazy but it is what it is. I would have been thrilled at 7.5 million and very content even at 8 million fwiw.

Lou is not stupid and you have to believe that he is considering Parise's place in all of this. I'm not sure what the plan is but this will force the team to cut some dead weight and move in a different direction. The cap is likely to go up I would guess so hopefully things will be ok.

These figures may not be exact but considering the source's history I can't see it being that far off at all.

Edited July 6, 2010 by Sickman

[NJDevs4978]

D. Parise will never get 9 million dollars a year nor will he ask for it, never. If he asks for that Lou will laugh in his face and be like, "no really, how much you asking for?" At the very most he gets 8, but I put it at about 7.5

Why? Zach's a better all-around player than Kovalchuk. Kovalchuk's a slightly better scorer but Zach is so much better defensively and intangibles-wise (intelligence, the fact he is probably the future captain) it's not even a question. He'd have every right to ask for more money.

Edited July 6, 2010 by Hasan4978

[Triumph]

Why? Zach's a better all-around player than Kovalchuk. Kovalchuk's a slightly better scorer but Zach is so much better defensively it's not even a question. He'd have every right to ask for more money.

duncan keith should demand more money than brian campbell. what a joke that he doesn't make more.

edit - oh and marc savard making less than milan lucic, and kimmo timonen makes more than chris pronger, and cristobal huet - more than roberto luongo!

Edited July 6, 2010 by Triumph

[sundstrom]

here's what i don't get re: kovy and the contract.

you're 27 - once you've signed 7 years, you can consider this your last big payday - is it possible at 34 he gets another mammoth deal - sure, i suppose if he's scored 35+ goals the last 7 years (let's surely hope so). but it's not entirely likely. so i don't understand why, knowing how the cap works, they don't give him a 13 year, $91MM deal and structure it so he's paid plenty over the first 7 years to work the present day value to an acceptable level and then start stepping down the last 6 years to make them relatively small payments. this is not a new loop hole - plenty of teams are already doing this.

again - unless he thinks he's going to be able to get another $60MM in 7 years to net him $120 over the next 14 years, i don't see why lou and him don't work this out - sure it's more $ for JVB but hey, he's probably the one telling Lou to get him in the first place.

i would do the similar w/ Parise. you'd be amazed what even an extra $1MM in cap space can do for you.

as for what Lou needs to do - it's going to cost a 1st to get out of this mess should Kovy sign - the islanders trade i proposed previously makes sense for every one involved.

[Neb00rs]

Why? Zach's a better all-around player than Kovalchuk. Kovalchuk's a slightly better scorer but Zach is so much better defensively and intangibles-wise (intelligence, the fact he is probably the future captain) it's not even a question. He'd have every right to ask for more money.

It's simple. First off, 8.8 is the max Kovy would get from anywhere.

Secondly, to say that Parise is a better all-around player doesn't tell the whole story. Teams don't invest their fortunes in hard-work, they invest in talent and hard-work. The level of Kovy's hockey talent is miles above Parise's. You know that if you invest in Kovy you are going to get that talent for seven years. If Parise gets injured he might become half the player he once was. That doesn't happen for a Kovalchuk or a Heatley type player unless the injury is very serious.

Then there is the fact that Parise is going to be a RFA. The Devils will be able to give him the best offer without breaking 8 mill.

Then there's the point that Kovy playing at his worst is still going to register a 40 goal/85 point season. Parise at his worst would be somewhere around 30 goals/ 70 points. That's the difference between a premier NHL player like Parise and a NHL superstar like Kovy.

I say all this and I love ZP9 as a player and a person.

[NJDevs4978]

duncan keith should demand more money than brian campbell. what a joke that he doesn't make more.

edit - oh and marc savard making less than milan lucic, and kimmo timonen makes more than chris pronger, and cristobal huet - more than roberto luongo!

Oh please, I know you're tired of people worrying about Zach but your sarcasm got old two years ago. You know they're comparable, they'll both be going UFA in the prime of their careers. I'm not saying Zach will hold out for nine I'm saying we'd better make nice with him and his agent pretty darn soon.

I don't even think a couple of those examples are true, Pronger's getting paid much more than Timonen the next three years, until the last two years of his contract when he's at retirement age plummet the cap number. Plus Huet and Luongo don't play on the same team, come on now.

[maxpower]

duncan keith should demand more money than brian campbell. what a joke that he doesn't make more.

edit - oh and marc savard making less than milan lucic, and kimmo timonen makes more than chris pronger, and cristobal huet - more than roberto luongo!

Duncan Keith is making more money than Brian Campbell, until the voidable years kick in. In 2017, when he'll be 34.

Look, when a player like Parise has a "comparable", and the player is on another team, Lou can say "that GM is nuts!"

But when Lou gives out the contract himself, he can't go and say "I'm nuts!". That won't fly, even if it's true.

This is nuts. In a league without a cap, who cares, although you wouldn't get him for that in a league without a cap, because the Teacher's Pension or Dolan could just buy him. Hopefully we get something out of him, and if we don't, he skips town in July 2013.

[Neb00rs]

here's what i don't get re: kovy and the contract.

you're 27 - once you've signed 7 years, you can consider this your last big payday - is it possible at 34 he gets another mammoth deal - sure, i suppose if he's scored 35+ goals the last 7 years (let's surely hope so). but it's not entirely likely. so i don't understand why, knowing how the cap works, they don't give him a 13 year, $91MM deal and structure it so he's paid plenty over the first 7 years to work the present day value to an acceptable level and then start stepping down the last 6 years to make them relatively small payments. this is not a new loop hole - plenty of teams are already doing this.

again - unless he thinks he's going to be able to get another $60MM in 7 years to net him $120 over the next 14 years, i don't see why lou and him don't work this out - sure it's more $ for JVB but hey, he's probably the one telling Lou to get him in the first place.

i would do the similar w/ Parise. you'd be amazed what even an extra $1MM in cap space can do for you.

as for what Lou needs to do - it's going to cost a 1st to get out of this mess should Kovy sign - the islanders trade i proposed previously makes sense for every one involved.

First off, we don't want to be stuck with any player for 13 years.

Secondly, Kovy doesn't want to be stuck anywhere for 13 years. Some players do, some don't Kovy is the type thaat leaves his options open.

[Triumph]

the devils could easily front-load a parise contract and make it 13 years-65 million if it came down to that. and hell, they may not even have to do that if zach would agree to a one-year deal, because new jersey is losing so much salary over the next 3 years with expiring contracts that won't have to be replaced by lucrative RFA contracts until 2013-14 and beyond.

my point is that canuck fans, blackhawk fans, red wing fans were all like 'HOW THE HELL ARE WE GOING TO KEEP ALL THESE GUYS?!?!?!?!?!?!' and then they did.

[maxpower]

It's simple. First off, 8.8 is the max Kovy would get from anywhere.

Secondly, to say that Parise is a better all-around player doesn't tell the whole story. Teams don't invest their fortunes in hard-work, they invest in talent and hard-work. The level of Kovy's hockey talent is miles above Parise's. You know that if you invest in Kovy you are going to get that talent for seven years. If Parise gets injured he might become half the player he once was. That doesn't happen for a Kovalchuk or a Heatley type player unless the injury is very serious.

Then there is the fact that Parise is going to be a RFA. The Devils will be able to give him the best offer without breaking 8 mill.

Then there's the point that Kovy playing at his worst is still going to register a 40 goal/85 point season. Parise at his worst would be somewhere around 30 goals/ 70 points. That's the difference between a premier NHL player like Parise and a NHL superstar like Kovy.

I say all this and I love ZP9 as a player and a person.

Parise is at least Kovalchuk's equal. The last two seasons, they have the same amount of points. Kovalchuk one more goal, Parise one more assist. Who do you think is better in the other facets of the game? And of course, one of the two doesn't have his universe run through him. Although I know what Triumph thinks about "bonus minutes" and their total lack of meaning.

If you gave me a choice, I take Parise every time. A little risky taking the guy on his upside, rather than the guy where you know what you get, but I don't care.

I don't get that choice. IMO, unless Parise is a champ about this or Lou learns how to write a contract in this environment (you can tell from this cap hit that it's probably a balanced contract, if it's front-loaded, it's a weak frontload like Elias')... Lou's made the choice. You can't have both. You definately can't have all three of Elias/Parise/Kovalchuk, and I think that starts now.

Edited July 6, 2010 by maxpower

[NJDevs4978]

here's what i don't get re: kovy and the contract.

you're 27 - once you've signed 7 years, you can consider this your last big payday - is it possible at 34 he gets another mammoth deal - sure, i suppose if he's scored 35+ goals the last 7 years (let's surely hope so). but it's not entirely likely. so i don't understand why, knowing how the cap works, they don't give him a 13 year, $91MM deal and structure it so he's paid plenty over the first 7 years to work the present day value to an acceptable level and then start stepping down the last 6 years to make them relatively small payments. this is not a new loop hole - plenty of teams are already doing this.

again - unless he thinks he's going to be able to get another $60MM in 7 years to net him $120 over the next 14 years, i don't see why lou and him don't work this out - sure it's more $ for JVB but hey, he's probably the one telling Lou to get him in the first place.

Or it's just purely ego...Kovy wants a slightly higher annual salary than Ovechkin and Crosby, hence the 8.8 number.

Zach would probably be more amenable to doing one of those 12 year, 80 million type deals and I think for him (and cap relief) Lou would break his seven-year limit...I hope that's the case though and Zach doesn't have a hard-a$$ for an agent cause that might be the only way you can afford to keep him now.

[DH26]

Parise is at least Kovalchuk's equal. The last two seasons, they have the same amount of points. Kovalchuk one more goal, Parise one more assist. Who do you think is better in the other facets of the game? And of course, one of the two doesn't have his universe run through him. Although I know what Triumph thinks about "bonus minutes" and their total lack of meaning.

If you gave me a choice, I take Parise every time. A little risky take the guy on his upside than the guy where you know what you get, but I don't care.

I don't get that choice. IMO, unless Parise is a champ about this or Lou learns how to write a contract in this environment (you can tell from this cap hit that it's probably a balanced contract, if it's front-loaded, it's a weak frontload like Elias')... Lou's made the choice. You can't have both. You definately can't have all three of Elias/Parise/Kovalchuk, and I think that starts now.

but what salary they get has to do more than with just how good they are. Vanek makes over 7 mil just because of an offer sheet. Restricted free agents never get as much as they could on the open market. That's why people like Gomez are making as much as Datsyuk. UFAs always gets more. Look at baseball for an example: Joe Mauer would have gotten more if he'd been a UFA but didn't and took elss for security

[Neb00rs]

Parise is at least Kovalchuk's equal. The last two seasons, they have the same amount of points. Kovalchuk one more goal, Parise one more assist. Who do you think is better in the other facets of the game? And of course, one of the two doesn't have his universe run through him. Although I know what Triumph thinks about "bonus minutes" and their total lack of meaning.

If you gave me a choice, I take Parise every time. A little risky taking the guy on his upside, rather than the guy where you know what you get, but I don't care.

I don't get that choice. IMO, unless Parise is a champ about this or Lou learns how to write a contract in this environment (you can tell from this cap hit that it's probably a balanced contract, if it's front-loaded, it's a weak frontload like Elias')... Lou's made the choice. You can't have both. You definately can't have all three of Elias/Parise/Kovalchuk, and I think that starts now.

First of all you can def have all 3 players. You just have to surround them with younger players and get the overpayed veterans off the books over the next couple years.

Secondly, depending on what team you are there is a small chance you might take Parise over Kovy. But they are not equals, period. The level of talent is not even close.

[maxpower]

but what salary they get has to do more than with just how good they are. Vanek makes over 7 mil just because of an offer sheet. Restricted free agents never get as much as they could on the open market. That's why people like Gomez are making as much as Datsyuk. UFAs always gets more. Look at baseball for an example: Joe Mauer would have gotten more if he'd been a UFA but didn't and took elss for security

Well, Parise will be a UFA (or becoming an UFA) when he signs his next contract. I doubt he signs a deal with a RFA year.

Arbitration. If he's signed out of arbitration, he'll be getting that first year as a UFA year even if it isn't one.

That is, if he's ever here tomorrow.

[sundstrom]

First off, we don't want to be stuck with any player for 13 years.

Secondly, Kovy doesn't want to be stuck anywhere for 13 years. Some players do, some don't Kovy is the type thaat leaves his options open.

the 13 years is on paper first of all. secondly, when he retires in 8 - 10 years, the last 3-5 mean nothing. and third the odds of him playing the rest of his career in NJ are not that high. it's just started, but what we're going to be seeing with these really long deals is that nobody finishes them with the team they signed them with and when they're bigger cap numbers and smaller payouts (especially with the cap seeming to rise to infinity), they'll actually become attractive (Triumph has been calling this since the cap was first put in place). it's the NBA economics, coming to a hockey team near you.

as for kovy, specifically - if he's not happy, he gets traded. there's no secret to that so don't worry about "options." regardess, he has the ultimate option - RUSSIA - at any time.

[Triumph]

parise is unquestionably better than kovalchuk and i don't think i'd ever argue that. still, new jersey is dropping a ton of salary every year, and they won't have those RFAs needing to be paid until way down the line. tedenby, josefson, urbom, henrique, etc. are basically all 7+ years away from UFA. so you can give kovalchuk a 7 year deal knowing that even if your young players perform outstandingly that they won't be UFA until that contract is up, and all their pay raises can basically be paid from the money being paid to kovalchuk.

[NJDevs4978]

but what salary they get has to do more than with just how good they are.

Of course...but agents use past contracts as comparables and barometers for their own client, all the more so when the two players have similar numbers and play for the same team, especially when Kovy went UFA for the Devils and Zach's about to go UFA for the Devils.

You can't compare this to Savard and Lucic or Campbell and Keith, those were all different scenarios. This is strikingly similar. I'm just saying, don't be shocked if Parise has a hard-ass agent that things get rocky.

[maxpower]

First of all you can def have all 3 players. You just have to surround them with younger players and get the overpayed veterans off the books over the next couple years.

Secondly, depending on what team you are there is a small chance you might take Parise over Kovy. But they are not equals, period. The level of talent is not even close.

"talent" does not equal everything, and there are other facets to hockey other than sniping. most of you guys have oversold Kovalchuk from the beginning.

and having all three players is nuts. You have $15M tied up in 2 LW's now. Are we going to make it $22M? More? Why don't we just re-up Parise now and see if we can get $28-29M for 4 LW's. I think it can be done.

the overpaid veterans are gone. some are going to go now, some are going to go next July. all of your cap scapegoats are history and you're still going to be rubbing up against the cap. of course, when all of these "clearings" are gone, then you're totally dependant on cap increases and shrewd manuvering. and teams built like Pittsburgh, where you better hope your stars produce, because they're going to be surrounded by fodder.

[Neb00rs]

Or it's just purely ego...Kovy wants a slightly higher annual salary than Ovechkin and Crosby, hence the 8.8 number.

Kovy knows he's not going to make as much as Crosby (9 mill) and will get a monster conrtact when he is a UFA and Ovechkin (9-10mill)

[Triumph]

the overpaid veterans are gone. some are going to go now, some are going to go next July. all of your cap scapegoats are history and you're still going to be rubbing up against the cap. of course, when all of these "clearings" are gone, then you're totally dependant on cap increases and shrewd manuvering. and teams built like Pittsburgh, where you better hope your stars produce, because they're going to be surrounded by fodder.

not the case. if the devils sign kovalchuk they won't be able to fill holes from outside. but they've got a bunch of prospects all ready to break into the NHL at the same time. they can be coasting on these guys for years if things turn out well with them. the real problem with pittsburgh is that they have had to rely on outside talent all the time - they haven't really developed a winger better than tyler kennedy since god knows when, and they are continually dealing draft picks every year as well.

Edited July 6, 2010 by Triumph