Triumph's Sens-devils Analysis.

[Triumph]

Okay, I'm sure actually a number of people have probably done this already tonight, but I figure I'll do one too.. and hey, I was right on with my first two, Devils in 5 for both of them..

Forwards: Ottawa boasts three of the most skilled forwards in the league with Martin Havlat, Daniel Alfredsson, and Marian Hossa. Hossa is now a superstar, and Alfredsson has always been an extremely solid scorer. They added Varada and Smolinski at the deadline, giving them depth.

Defense: Ottawa has an excellent top 6 with no weaknesses. Redden, Rachunek, Volchenkov, Chara, Leschyshyn and Chris Phillips have been the starting 6, and have been solid.

Goalie: Lalime has been less than stellar in previous playoffs against the Maple Leafs, but he did hold the Flyers to two goals last year, and has been solid, albeit relatively untested, this year.

Experience: The thing about the Senators is that of their players, I can think of only one with a Cup ring: Curtis Leschyschyn. Perhaps Van Allen got one with Dallas, I'm too lazy to look, but the point is clear: They are not an experienced team. This is their first trip to the Stanley Cup Semi-Finals.

How the Devils match up against the Senators, and how they will have to beat them: The Senators can roll four lines, and do not have any apparent weaknesses on their roster. Where I do think they are weak, although the statistics will not support it, is at center, where Radek Bonk and Todd White are only average. Furthermore, their team is very small up front, and the Devils have speed on the blueline, something which favors the Devils.

Rachunek and Volchenkov are exploitable if the Devils can isolate them in the defensive zone. Volchenkov has a tendency to go for the big hit, and Rachunek tends to avoid physical play.

The Devils will have to continue their stellar defensive game. I do think that they can stop two of Hossa, Havlat, and Alfredsson, and while their scoring after that has a lot of depth, there is no one who is particularly impressive. But if all three are on different lines, the Devils will need to use Oleg Tverdovsky in this series if they want to win. Speed is necessary to beat the Senators, as well as toughness.

I know I'm going to get railed by the negative people for this prediction, but here it is: Devils in 6. The Devils seem incapable of falling behind in a series, and the Senators seem incapable of coming from behind in a series. The Devils will score enough on Lalime and play solid defense behind Brodeur. Neither team seems to have any chinks in the armor on paper, so I look for playoff experience, guts, grit, determination, and leadership, and I find that on the Devils more than I do on the Senators.

[CHICO IS GOD]

Great post Tri, I agree with you but beyond the intangibles, I think Marty is 3 levels above Lalime and Lalime may feel that pressue (roy and brodeur in 01) and Devils in 6 was also my prediction. So, more power to you! lol

[SBT]

This is it, folks.

The top 3 seeds in the West have been eliminated.

Eastern Conference Champ = Stanley Cup Champ.

BOOK IT.

[brylin18]

in his very short career, havlat has managed to TORCH the devils almost every time they play each other. he's the guy i'm most scared of. i don't think the devils have what it takes to stop him.

volchenkov is another kid i have been totally impressed with. this kid is gonna be a great defenseman. he might go for the big hit, but i haven't seen him get caught out of position because of it.

senators like to send their defense in deep once they gain the zone and volchenkov has created alot of offense when he does sneak in. i think he plays the pp too. chara plays the pp up front.

it's just too much, i think, for the devils to handle. maybe for a two week period did the devils have all four lines going thorugh the entire regular season. this has carried into the playoffs. everyone has to come to play for them to win this one.

['7']

if the Devils win it will be in 7.

Ottawa has an offense that comes at you in waves, they dominated the Islanders 4 out of 5 games, sometimes outchancing them 3-1, they were dominant offensively and defensively. This is the fastest team in the east.

Lalime is overrated, he only got better as his pads get bigger. He can be beat(if you can get through Chara first). This is the series where we need Elias leading the offensive charge every night, he needs to be the best forward on the ice for us.

The Sens can taste the finals so this is going to be a tough series, Marty has to be sharp because I can see Ottawa dominating in shots & scoring chances, they're probably the only team that can break our trap consistantly.

the Isles also had speed on D with 4 good puck carrying defensmen, but it didn't make much of a difference. The Devils defensmen are probably better passers though.

I remember a game earlier in the year when Ottawa dominated the Devs but we still won 3-1, with marty stealing the show and the sens hitting a bunch of posts. That's how it's gonna have to be if the Devils win the series.

[Triumph]

brylin I've noticed Volchenkov jumping into the play, but the thing about the Flyers and the Islanders is that their transition games are not as good as the Devils..

What the Devils have in spades is speed, and what they lack in size, they make up for in heart.

^7^ the Islanders were an all-around weaker team than the Devils, it wouldn't matter if they had had six puck carriers, that offense wasn't going to cut it against the Senators defense.

I don't see the Senators carrying the play, but I do see the play being largely even. The Devils will have to capitalize on their chances and limit the chances of the Senators' three best forwards.

Oh, and White and Niedermayer have to play better. Stevens and Rafalski are going to get beat in this series. White and Niedermayer can't be a -1 every game.

[PacificDevil]

Yep, it will be tough series. Ottawa is a favorite but if anyone can beat them it is Devils. I think recent Lou's big trades (Newyu, Langs, Friesen, Tivo) have been done exactly for such a situation so speedy team like Ottawa can be handled. BTW, what exactly did Hitchcock say?

[Have Another Donut]

I think it's good that the series starts in Ottawa, that puts even more pressure on the Sens, and the Devs a very good road team, will frustrate them with their smothering d/trap. I am however,concerned about the Sens pp. Devs gotta stay out of the box. I look for Gionta and Brylin to do more as they won't get flung around so much, Stevens and especially Daneyko can get toasted by Sens speed. Devils have to pound Havlat,

Hossa, Alfresson. Devs in 6.

[Risky]

Oh my gawd, I'm agreeing with Looney ^7^, but if the Devils win this, it'll be in 7. This series is going to be a ping-pong ball. Back and forth. I think the first victory is so much more important here than anywhere else. It will be a fantastic series, and for once will have all the attention as FINALLY, the Western war is not between some combination of Dallas, Colorado and Detroit. If Vancouver wins against the Wild, expect them to get quite literally SPANKED by the Ducks. 5 games. Maybe another sweep.

What's interesting here is how confident SBT seems about the winner coming from the East. Don't discount the Ducks. I can't remember seeing a team come out of nowhere like this and have it look like they literally cannot be beaten. Ignoring the 4-1 loss to Dallas, the Ducks have played 1 goal games and seemed to live even beyond their close losses. As Gary Thorne said last night "This team simply will not go away." I'm beginning to think they are right. The Ducks' hardest challenges are behind them. The Wild or Vancouver will be significantly less of a hurdle going into the next round, though I'm curious as to what happens to Anaheim when they are no longer considered major underdogs (and against these teams, they probably should be considered the favorite).

The key to the Devils' victory in this series is Defense. Not our blueline, but the Defense that makes Devils' Hockey Devils' Hockey. Every guy on the back-check all the time. Clog the neutral zone. Clog the slot. Great break-out passing to clear the zone. Limit the icing or long, low-percentage passes. Martin Brodeur HAS to be the best player in this series (unless it's Patrik Elias and he scores more than a goal per game, then it could be him, but I doubt it) for the Devils to advance. They can do it, but even a three-minute lapse can get them killed here. They had lapses in Boston and seemingly even more lapses early on in Tampa (the last 2 games, they were stifling), but there can be no lapses here. There can be no "gimme game" in Ottawa. The Devils need to look at this series like they need to win every game, and likely by one goal. The team concept is more important here than I can ever remember it being for the Devils -- they have to play as one cohesive machine and put together all the little things that combine to be greater than the sum of their parts. They need to defend, frustrate, hit, hurt and capitalize on breakdowns. If they can play this game for 60 minutes a night for 7 games, they'll take the Eastern Conference.

[msweet]

I agree with you completely Risky.

I'm just not sure playing that perfectly is possible.

The Sens can play at 92% and the Devils have to play at 100%.

This is possible, but not for 7 games.

I think they have too much of everything.

In order for the Devils to have a chance (let alone win), we need:

1. Brodeur to be phenominal, even for Broduer.

2. Stevens needs to take someone out in game 1 or game 2. Sets the tone. and will put the fear of G-d in them.

3. Elias must score.

4. Team defense must be perfect.

With no #1 or #2 from above. We will not win.

Broduer has to get in their heads and Stevens needs to bash their heads. It's one thing to beat us in the regular season when they can skate at will, it's another to do it when Stevens means business.

And finally as for Tvo, his speed is useful, but is he defensively solid enough to play against the Sens? Each and every mistake he makes will end up behind Broduer.

Against this team, our 3rd defensive pair, concerns me a lot.

I'm not picking a series winner, simply because I have learned never to bet against our beloved Devils. Just when you think they can't do it, this team (thank you Lou) always seems to amaze.

[PaDevsFan]

Devils in 6.

Reasons as follows:

1. Opening on the road for other teams may be a negative, but for the defensive style of the Devils it is truly a plus. Knowing the Sens are going to be keyed up and trying to impress their home fans with all of their offensive prowess will play right into the Devils hands. They will become frustrated and will turn the puck over. Devils will definately split in Ottawa, may even win both and come home to split.

2. 5 on 5 Devils are a more solid team. While Ottawa has a few "stars" , overall the depth and solid lines go to the Devils. Yes Ottaw has a very dangerous powerplay, but the Devils have the no 1 PK, and for that matter were the least penalized team this yr. I dont think Otawas PP will have enough chances this series to make the difference. If you look at it as a whole, the Flyers played even or better 5 on 5 with the Sens. It was their lack of discipline that cost them. Devils wont be that stupid.

3. Brodeur

4. Brodeur

5. Brodeur

I think you get my point. While Lalime is a very good goalie, he is not in the same class as MArty. Marty has been unbelievable this post season. If you look at this post season, take away the game against Boston in which the Devs as a whole let down (thinkin it was over) and the same in Tampa series, Marty has been more than very solid. He also has the "big game" experience, and in my mind will be the ultimate decider.

All that being said, Elias Langs and Madden are also keys to this series, if these guys play like they have so far in the post season (Elias recently) then the Devs will win this series.

[Risky]

I hope you're right, PA.

[SC Devs Fan]

Experience: The thing about the Senators is that of their players, I can think of only one with a Cup ring: Curtis Leschyschyn. Perhaps Van Allen got one with Dallas, I'm too lazy to look, but the point is clear: They are not an experienced team. This is their first trip to the Stanley Cup Semi-Finals.

Leschyshyn is the only one with a ring on the Sens. Interestingly, The Ducks have 3 (Sykora, Ozolinsh, Olausson) and the Canucks none; the WIld have 2 (Dowd and Bombadir). If experience counts then we're in good shape - we have 15 with rings!

[Nieuwy25]

Van Allen wasn't with Dallas in '99. He came in 2000.

[SensSpaz]

Ahoy Dev's fans! So we meet again!

I have to say that I disagree with assessment of the Sens by many of you. Since your bias lies towards the Dev's, how about you assess how prepared they are for the series and I will provide my bias as a counter. I am here as an information representative for the Sens!

So here is my assessment of the Senators heading into the series:

Offence:

Sens are quick, this is true, but unlike TBay they can roll 4 lines that are offensively dangerous. The Sens also are a free-flowing offensive crew, meaning that they rarely practice set plays and rely on offensive creativity and hard work along the boards 5-on-5 and on the PP. Being positionally perfect on D doesn't always cut it against the Sens because of this. To stop them the Dev's will have to forecheck aggressivley and practice obstruction without getting caught.

Defence:

The D is almost as speedy as the forwards and guys like Redden, Rachunek, and Volchenkov like to pinch in to help the forcheck and scoring. Phillips, Chara will punish forwards in front of the net, while Volchenkov and Rachunek do their best work along the boards. Lechyshyn is the anchor of experience on the blue line, but at times can be the weakest link versus a strong, speedy forecheck. To beat the Sens defence, the Dev's must pressure the puck carrying D, since many of them are guilty of giving the puck away when under pressure, and they must get their top line out versus the 3rd defensive pair with Lechyshyn.

Goaltending:

Lalime has been known to let in soft goals from time to time, but rarely when it counts. This is due to his ability to rebound from a dissapointing play or game and come up big. The Sens D can make him seem immortal at times but he excels at rebound control and is strong on the glove side. To beat Lalime, first the Dev's must eliminate the D (easier said then done) and always put it high, since he tends to go down in the butterfly early on occasions. His even nature makes him more or less immune to "run the goalie" techniques.

Special Teams:

Bottom line -- do not take penalties against the Sens. As mentioned before their free-flowing plays are hard to defend against, but can be hampered by constsnt pressure...a static 4 man box will leave them to much time and opportunity. The Ottawa PK basically takes the point shot out of the equation, so aggressive down-low play is needed to crack this solid defensive team.

Well I hope that helps rate your chances vs. the Sens......here's to a great series!

GO SENS GO!!!!

[Triumph]

Good analysis Spaz.

I think on paper these two teams are about even.. whereas the Sens have guys like Bonk and White who are weaker up front, they make up for it with Havlat on a 3rd line.. and their defense, again on paper, is even with the Devils..

Whoever wants this series more, every game, will win it. I just think the Devils will want it more. There isn't a player on the Devils that doesn't need to win, and I think there are some on the Sens.

Game 1 will be a huge game.

[Sarge18]

One of the biggest keys i see is for the Devils to play a phyiscal game at both ends of the ice. With our big defensemen playing even bigger then they are. A guy cant skate around you when hes looking at the roof. Same for our fowards. Get in there on the forecheck and put physical pressure on the sens defense. Get in their faces and force them to either make a mistake or pay the price for the play.

Being that ottawa is a skating more then a hitting team, i really hope we dont get caught up in that, as fast as our fowards are thats not our game. If things open up like they did at times versus both Boston and Tampa that will not favor us. The guys needs to keep control, and id really like to see Burns implement a 1 man deep forecheck. I know it stretches the neutral zone out , but its something that could raise some serious hell for the sens. No more passive trap, lets force these guys into mistakes.

[westcoastdevfan]

You all have covered pretty much all the bases, so I will add this.....The Devils can and will win this series in 6 games. The previous opponents of both these teams were weak (yes, even Philly was weak) I expect a tight low scoring series. I think the Devils D is more than ready to handle to firepower of the Sens. Sarge is getting better with every shift, Nieuwendyk has been quiet but see ms posed for a big goal or two, Gomez is getting hot and Elias is due. Finally, Marty is our trump card and could steal a game or two. I was nervous about this series at first but the more I think about it, this is what we all wanted, #1 vs. #2 for all the marbles. It should be fun. Go Devils! Hey if teh Ducks can knock of the #1and #2 seed we sure as hell could knock off the Sens.

[brylin18]

philly tried being physical with the sens. the sens are not a weak team that can be beaten up. and besides, the devils are not much of a hitting team anyways. they're not going to stray from their gameplan just to hit the senators. they have to rely on what they do best, which is counterattack.

[Dagwood]

Gentleman, There is not much I can add after Spazz's excellent synopsis of what the Sens bring to the table. But I can easily see you folks are just as ready for this series as we are. Ottawa's strength in this series will be on the Left side. I know Danyeko (spelling?? sorry) is a top rated D-man, but he will be worn down quickly as this series goes on with the constant attack from Hossa, Alfredsson and Havlat. True we are weak a center in terms of faceoffs and that has always been a problem, but the team makes up for it by forcing turnovers. Concerning Lalime and Brodeur. Lalime has never hidden the fact that he Idolizes Marty big time. It should prove to be an advantage for Lalime to try and out play him in this series.

Both Ottawa and Jersey are good trap teams, so having the lead will be a huge advantage for either team. It will then be up to the faster team to work through it obviously. The Physical play is not an issue with this years Sens. Hossa, Bonk, Alfredsson , Schaefer, Smolinsky, Varada, Fisher, White and Van Allen can give it as well as take it from the best now. The exception being Havlat who just turns it up a notch and avoids the hits all together

Our D as you know are standup guys and will be tough down low for your forwards to work around.

I have no doubt this will be a terrific series, and I hope to participate in some discussions as this series progresses. My Grammer is not the best, and my spelling sucks. But I do refrain from trash talking and always respect our opponents, especially when visiting.

Other than that, My Sens take this series in 5 B)

[SensSpaz]

Prediction:

Game 1: Devils - Ottawa must change their strategy vs. the Devils, while the Dev's just came off a series against a quick, scoring team. Advantage Dev's

Game 2: Sens - Captain video (Nielson) will crack the code on the Dev's D + the home crowd will pump them.

Game 3: Sens OT - Close game, but the Sens have proven to be a OT powerhouse with more depth and legs than any other team out there.

Game 4: Devils - Shutout for NJ. Strong words from Burns and a motivated Brodeur will steal the show.

Game 5: Sens - Like all previous series this is where the youth, speed and depth of the Sens takes over as they skate circles around Jersey's D.

Game 6: Sens - Goaltender battle with Lalime standing on his head to bring the Sens to the Cup!

Hey no one said I wasn't looking at it through rose coloured glasses...but should be awesome!!!!

GO SENS GO!!!

[Sarge18]

I never made the assumption that they are a weak team. However their youth and inexperience at defense can be explioted i believe. Not to mention their fowards are smaller then ours which is hard to accomplish.

The defense as a whole needs to step up and play tough playoff hockey, something that we did against boston but not against tampa. Nieds needs to remove his head from his posterier very quickly, maybe he feels the sens are an opponent worthy of his ability, and he will show up. All i know is he NEEDS to get better in his own end. He cost us way to many goals against in the Bolts series.

Somehow i see Marshall, Stevenson, and Rheaume's physical play playing a big part of this series, especially if they can get in deep and get hits on the senators defenders. Much like i believe that Stevens White and Dano playing a tough game on the blueline can do the same with a few of their fowards.

[Triumph]

If the Friesen-Nieuwendyk-Gionta line starts scoring, the Devils could take this.

If they don't score, the Devils don't have a chance.

This isn't like Boston or Tampa where the Devils can miss chances and know that five minutes later they will get another one. They must convert on the best chances they get. This has been the Devils' problem all year.

Damn it, why can't they just drop the puck tonight...

[MaddDog]

In order for the Devils to have a chance (let alone win), we need:

1. Brodeur to be phenominal, even for Broduer.

2. Stevens needs to take someone out in game 1 or game 2. Sets the tone. and will put the fear of G-d in them.

3. Elias must score.

4. Team defense must be perfect.

This sort of bothers me a little. In order to have a CHANCE, you're saying we have to be almost perfect? I don' t know about that! I'm am utterly convinced that we'll have to play like mad to beat Ottawa as well, but I also didn't notice Ottawa sweeping the Cryers in the last round either. Hell, haven't they been shut out THREE TIMES so far in 2nd rounds? Remember that the Sens can't exactly slack off and expect to breeze through this next round either. NJ is hardly a crappy team.

[Dagwood]

One thing to consider about the Sens as a whole, is the fact that this team is full of playoff hockey veterans. We have never made it into the third round so this will be exciting as heck, but when you look at the youth on our team, combined with the fact the core of 8 or 9 players have now made it to the playoffs 8 times in 11 years, these guys are veterans.

Wade Redden, Chris Phillips are two of those guys, and each are starting to develop into top D-Men in this league. Redden especially.

Volchenkov although a rookie this year in the NHL, has played fourl years in the Russian elite league and has been reffered to as a veteran in terms of how he plays. Watch for the open Ice hits from this guy.

Leschyshyn is the only Cup ring holder on our team and is solid on D for us.

Chara, is just a wall when his game is on.

Rachunek is also a good positional player and plays hard down low.

All of the D like to jump up on the play to create the odd man rush which I know is tough against the Devils. When they do jump up, our forwards have an uncanny way of automatically recognising it and covering for them.

We are a young team venturing into uncharted territory, and with no pressure or expectations on them in this series, meaning no failures for the media to throw up in their faces, Look for this team to play with Heart, Desire all the while playing relaxed and having a good time. They just started to hit their stride in game 5 against the Flyers, and we all saw what happened in game 6. Past history of this years regular season stats and the 1998 round one meeting these two teams had previously with Ottawa winning should be considered. And to think most of the Sens players in 98 are still on the team. Just more experienced, tougher, and faster. They already had the skill

Does anyone know if the fun begins on Friday or Saturday?