All Aboard The Severson Train

[Derlique]

Here's a bit of an update and puts some perspective on how impressive Severson has been. I postes this on HF:

 

Severson is still playing against top lines and starting a lot more shifts in the defensive zone. He's coming out ahead possession wise...I can't stress how impressive that is. He may not have any points in the last ten or so games, but his shot rate is still high as hell and he's getting his chances.

Severson is on pace for over 220 shots, while playing against top lines and starting only ~40% of shifts in the offensive zones. Most rookies start well above 50% playing weak opponents. Here is a list of rookie who have hit 190 shots in their rookie years (had to cut it down because 220 is an insane number).

2013-2014: None. Krug was at 183 and Gelinas was next at 124 and they are both bad in the dzone, while facing easy comp.

2012-2013: J. Schultz had 85 in 48, which is nowhere near a 190 pace. His defensive shortcomings were/are well known

2011-2012: Faulk had 101 in 66 games, which doesn't come close to a 190 pace. He played against decently tough comp, but Severson certainly has more offense to his game

2010-2011: Ahh here we finally get one. P.K. Subban had 194 shots. John Carlson is next at 144

2009-2010: Karlsson #1 at 112 shots in 60 games (166 pace). Calder winner Tyler Myers had 104.

2008-2009: Doughty is the leader at 126

2007-2008: Edler with 124

2006-2007: Ian White at 138

2005-2006: Phaneuf at 242(!) but wasn't playing against toughs.
----

So as we see, since the 2005-2006 season, only P.K. Subban and Dion Phaneuf have put up the shot production that Severson is on pace to do. Once again, I can't stress how rare it is to see a rookie defenseman do what Severson is doing. Playing against toughs with unfriendly zone starts.

[mfitz804]

Maybe its just me, but in addition to being credited with a lot of shots, he seems to fire the puck into the opposing defender's feet with amazing consistency. It seems like nearly every time someone sets him up at the point, the shot is blocked. I have been noticing this very frequently, happened a couple times in the last game. 

[SterioDesign]

without looking at stats i really love everything he does, breaking passes, his position on players along the boards, able to cover his mistakes really often, can play in all situations... im really high on this kid

[BostonNala370]

Maybe its just me, but in addition to being credited with a lot of shots, he seems to fire the puck into the opposing defender's feet with amazing consistency. It seems like nearly every time someone sets him up at the point, the shot is blocked. I have been noticing this very frequently, happened a couple times in the last game. 

 

Give him a brake he is a rookie playing a lot of minutes. So he makes mistakes that comes with playing a rookie and a young one at that.

[Triumph]

Maybe its just me, but in addition to being credited with a lot of shots, he seems to fire the puck into the opposing defender's feet with amazing consistency. It seems like nearly every time someone sets him up at the point, the shot is blocked. I have been noticing this very frequently, happened a couple times in the last game. 

 

It is just you to a degree, though it's hard to rely on the NJ scorer to count blocked shots.  Severson has had 27 shots blocked at ES, Zidlicky 31, Greene 26, Gelinas 26.  Meanwhile he's got 10 more shots than any of these guys 5 on 5.  On the PP, Severson has had 6 shots blocked, so has Gelinas and Zidlicky.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

It is just you to a degree, though it's hard to rely on the NJ scorer to count blocked shots.  Severson has had 27 shots blocked at ES, Zidlicky 31, Greene 26, Gelinas 26.  Meanwhile he's got 10 more shots than any of these guys 5 on 5.  On the PP, Severson has had 6 shots blocked, so has Gelinas and Zidlicky.

 

I was thinking the same thing last night...could be that Severson was trailing the other guys and is now catching up.  Rafalski seemed to shoot a lot of pucks into skates in his last couple of seasons with NJ.   

[John Wensink]

I think you have to account for the other team too. The league knows about his shot and set up for it. I'm more worried about him hitting the wall in Jan/Feb.

[BostonNala370]

It is just you to a degree, though it's hard to rely on the NJ scorer to count blocked shots.  Severson has had 27 shots blocked at ES, Zidlicky 31, Greene 26, Gelinas 26.  Meanwhile he's got 10 more shots than any of these guys 5 on 5.  On the PP, Severson has had 6 shots blocked, so has Gelinas and Zidlicky.

 

 

I love these stat and what they support.. While stats don't equate to wining, I just look at the win column but thanks for the support with the stats.

[mfitz804]

It is just you to a degree, though it's hard to rely on the NJ scorer to count blocked shots.  Severson has had 27 shots blocked at ES, Zidlicky 31, Greene 26, Gelinas 26.  Meanwhile he's got 10 more shots than any of these guys 5 on 5.  On the PP, Severson has had 6 shots blocked, so has Gelinas and Zidlicky.

That stat is not reliable for what I am talking about. I am not saying he has more of his shots blocked, I'm saying he seems to shoot the puck directly into the defender's feet more often. Your stat only reports total blocked shots, which takes into account every way a shot can be blocked, guys diving, making good plays, etc.

[ATLL765]

That stat is not reliable for what I am talking about. I am not saying he has more of his shots blocked, I'm saying he seems to shoot the puck directly into the defender's feet more often. Your stat only reports total blocked shots, which takes into account every way a shot can be blocked, guys diving, making good plays, etc.

No other way to quantify what you're talking about. Going by memory is never going to be accurate, so this is the best you're gonna get statistically on this.

[mfitz804]

No other way to quantify what you're talking about. Going by memory is never going to be accurate, so this is the best you're gonna get statistically on this.

I know, that's why I was asking if my perception was accurate. I wasn't really looking for a stat.

Edited December 10, 2014 by mfitz804

[SterioDesign]

No other way to quantify what you're talking about. Going by memory is never going to be accurate, so this is the best you're gonna get statistically on this.

 

going strictly by stats is never going to be accurate either when conditions are ignored. It's one of those things where you have to look at the whole thing. No stats will ever tell the whole story

[Derlique]

http://war-on-ice.com/playertable.html?mansit=2&scoresit=11&homeawaysit=1&shotattsit=&names=severson,0rielly,0hampus0lindholm,0trouba,0maatta&team=&pos=1&start1=2014-10-01&xaxis=41&yaxis=70&caxis=31&saxis=77&mintoi=0&panel=&usedaterange=0&start0=20142015&end0=20142015&end1=2014-12-31&splitseasons=0

 

Check out this comparison between Severson, Morgan Rielly, Maatta, Trouba and Hampus Lindholm (all 2012 picks). It's not a stretch at all to say Severson could be the best dman in that draft class. Already a top pairing guy

[mfitz804]

http://war-on-ice.com/playertable.html?mansit=2&scoresit=11&homeawaysit=1&shotattsit=&names=severson,0rielly,0hampus0lindholm,0trouba,0maatta&team=&pos=1&start1=2014-10-01&xaxis=41&yaxis=70&caxis=31&saxis=77&mintoi=0&panel=&usedaterange=0&start0=20142015&end0=20142015&end1=2014-12-31&splitseasons=0

 

Check out this comparison between Severson, Morgan Rielly, Maatta, Trouba and Hampus Lindholm (all 2012 picks). It's not a stretch at all to say Severson could be the best dman in that draft class. Already a top pairing guy

He's only top pairing out of necessity, but he's not embarrassing himself. Hope he gets better soon.

[ATLL765]

Seems like Lindholm is faring the best while starting a ton of shifts in the defensive zone, but Severson is the definitely the best of the rest right now. Depending on how much he improves, he could end up being the best in that draft class though.

[Derlique]

Seems like Lindholm is faring the best while starting a ton of shifts in the defensive zone, but Severson is the definitely the best of the rest right now. Depending on how much he improves, he could end up being the best in that draft class though.

You have your numbers mixed up. Lindholm is starting over 52% of shifts in the ozone

[ATLL765]

You have your numbers mixed up. Lindholm is starting over 52% of shifts in the ozone

Sh!t, did I read the graph backwards? This is what happens when you don't sleep, lol.

Edited January 1, 2015 by ATLL765

[Marshall]

On a similar topic, comparing some notable young defensemen: http://t.co/8OXO6DEE9v

Edited January 1, 2015 by Marshall

[Jas0nMacIsaac]

Severson is a future star. NJ's defense may not have peak hall of fame players like the Devils teams on 90's but they should be comparable to Nashville of the 2000's. It will be interesting to see where Merrill and Larsson can peak.

[Triumph]

First game back, he played 16 minutes, made 2 great pinches, 2 excellent shots for a deflection, lots of other good reads - he blew that 2 on 1 against, but that's teachable and the other stuff isn't.

[Jas0nMacIsaac]

Merrill with Severson has enough size, mobility and puck moving skills to be a pretty dominant softer minute pair.

[devlman]

I love how young our core of defenseman are. That's why I refuse to believe we're in need of a 3-4 year rebuild. If we can score in this draft on a forward, add another Cammalleri-type player, and see Merrill turn it around and Larsson and Severson continue to progress, there's no reason to think we won't contend a year from now. Especially when our goalie is Schneider.

Agreed. Massive changes needed up front though. But yeah, bw schneids and the young D, we aren't far away from playoff contention next year.

Edited March 4, 2015 by devlman

[devilsrule33]

I love how young our core of defenseman are. That's why I refuse to believe we're in need of a 3-4 year rebuild. If we can score in this draft on a forward, add another Cammalleri-type player, and see Merrill turn it around and Larsson and Severson continue to progress, there's no reason to think we won't contend a year from now. Especially when our goalie is Schneider.

 

Contend? The Devils have absolutely nothing at forward. Keep winning, and they might pick 10th, and even if you draft a forward you like there, don't expect much for at least 3 years. Cammalleri is only getting older and running ridiculously hot. There is not a single UFA available that would be very helpful. Henrique is a 3rd liner. Zajac has the offensive ability of a 3rd line center. Elias will be 39 next season.

 

What are the Devils contending for in a year? A playoff spot is a stretch. I'm not down for a full rebuild, but I also don't think the Devils are remotely close to being an above average hockey team for a few years.

[Triumph]

Contend? The Devils have absolutely nothing at forward. Keep winning, and they might pick 10th, and even if you draft a forward you like there, don't expect much for at least 3 years. Cammalleri is only getting older and running ridiculously hot. There is not a single UFA available that would be very helpful. Henrique is a 3rd liner. Zajac has the offensive ability of a 3rd line center. Elias will be 39 next season.

 

What are the Devils contending for in a year? A playoff spot is a stretch. I'm not down for a full rebuild, but I also don't think the Devils are remotely close to being an above average hockey team for a few years.

 

If Schneider is a .928 goalie and plays 65 games, NJ is absolutely in a theoretical playoff push if they stay healthy, but those are some big ifs.

[coldply123]

Devils need two top six forwards. They also need guys like Bernier and Josefson to step up again next year. They also need a Matteau or someone else to come in and really pick up where guys like Zubrus or Clowe were supposed to be effective. There's a lot of renovation and rearrangement needed at forward.