Triumph Posted March 6, 2016 Share Posted March 6, 2016 It's March 6 and the Devils are 5 points out of a playoff spot with 2 games out of hand against Pittsburgh. A loss in regulation puts them 7 back which effectively ends their playoff hopes. Sportsclubstats has them at 5.1% to make the playoffs, hockey-reference has them at 6.8%, and neither of these things really account for just how mediocre this Devils team is. They're especially bad if Cory Schneider is out for any amount of time beyond 1 game. Note that this is not about tanking. Tanking is a thing only a very desperate team should undertake. I would like the Devils to slip into a losing habit, but not plummet down the standings - each time the Devils lose, it suggests that their true talent is worse and worse, and this team losing most of the way out with a lot of players who'll be on next year's roster will make for a gloomy summer. That said, these things can perk up with a lottery draft win. So with the standings as they are right now, we've got the Devils in basically what amounts to a 4 way tie: NJD: 66 G, 69 P CAR: 66 G, 69 P OTT: 66 G, 69 P COL: 67 G, 70 P These teams right now are between 10th and 13th in the order of the draft next summer. The lottery draft has changed considerably however, and that changes the odds considerably - the team that finishes 13th to last now has a 6% chance of picking in the top 3, whereas the team that finishes 10th to last has a 10.5% chance. The team that finishes 8th to last has an 18% chance of picking in the top 3, and now you're talking about realistic odds. Can the Devils get down to 8th to last? The team currently occupying that spot are the Vancouver Canucks, owners of 62 points in 64 games. Assuming the Canucks play at their similar pace for the rest of the year and the Devils play .400 hockey, that still doesn't get them low enough - it will be a real struggle to end up that low. Sportsclubstats, which operates on a flawed model but will still give us a basicidea, says the Devils have a 15% chance of finishing 8th worst or worse. I'll be updating this thread probably weekly - let's start at least rooting for Carolina, Ottawa, and Colorado to go on some winning streaks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derlique Posted March 6, 2016 Share Posted March 6, 2016 Was looking at this and concluded that the lowest they can go was 9th. MTL is the other team that could pass them but they suck. Who knows, maybe CBJ gets hot to close out the year, we do play them twice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lateralous Posted March 6, 2016 Share Posted March 6, 2016 (edited) Last night not withstanding, don't the Blue Jackets get hot every year after the games no longer matter? It seems like they're always in a nasty cycle where they win down the stretch giving them false hope that the group they have can compete the next year and they don't need major changes. I know I've fallen for it a few times. Edited March 6, 2016 by Lateralous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EdgeControl Posted March 6, 2016 Share Posted March 6, 2016 what no limbo music for this thread???? I don't buy the tanking hangover premise, with cory out and the front office hopefully bringing some AHL players up the message is clear and all bets are off. no need to look too deep into the circumstances. the season should be judged at the departure of the #1 goalie...we are a borderline PO team at full strength and need a top draft picks the focus is on the 62 pt teams now, can we make a 7 pt swing with these teams Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Satans Hockey Posted March 6, 2016 Share Posted March 6, 2016 I think if Cory is out for the year and the way we have been basically scoring 1 goal a game I think 2-3 wins is a very strong possibility. I'm not rooting for this to happen but other then the Nashville game our offense has been abysmal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RunninWithTheDevil Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 Losing every game for the rest of the season is a realistic thing I can see, even with this team putting up an 'effort' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Triumph Posted March 7, 2016 Author Share Posted March 7, 2016 Even the Sabres, who were a worse team than the Devils are now, managed to win 23 out of 82 games last year. So they're not likely to finish out the year only winning 2 or 3, even if Schneider is shut down for the year. I think 4-5 is realistic though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MantaRay Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 WIth no Schneider, Cammy, Elias, or now even Stepniak, there is no end to the bottom. If we win another game this season I will be stunned. I just hope that Shero has a better scouting staff than what left here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmann422 Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 I think 5-6 wins is probably realistic. Looking at the schedule, we have 5 games left that I would consider winnable- CLB x2, BUF, CAR, and TOR. Figure we take 2 or 3 of those plus two upsets mixed in. Maybe Tampa already has their playoff seed locked in by the time we play them twice in April, we always seem to play well against them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJ Eco Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 30 minutes ago, dmann422 said: I think 5-6 wins is probably realistic. Looking at the schedule, we have 5 games left that I would consider winnable- CLB x2, BUF, CAR, and TOR. Figure we take 2 or 3 of those plus two upsets mixed in. Maybe Tampa already has their playoff seed locked in by the time we play them twice in April, we always seem to play well against them. See, I see those teams you listed and I see 3, maybe 4 losses haha.. CLB and TOR have our number. I think we'll get 4-5 wins to close out the season, but against teams like the Lightning, Wild, and maybe one of the upcoming West Coast trip teams haha.. Those continue to be the types of teams we beat, and our fellow bottom feeders continue to be the types of teams we lose to. We shall see! Glad the majority (9) of remaining games (15) are away games. It's a quiet funeral. Those last 3 home games in April though will be tough to enjoy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Satans Hockey Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 (edited) 34 minutes ago, dmann422 said: I think 5-6 wins is probably realistic. Looking at the schedule, we have 5 games left that I would consider winnable- CLB x2, BUF, CAR, and TOR. Figure we take 2 or 3 of those plus two upsets mixed in. Maybe Tampa already has their playoff seed locked in by the time we play them twice in April, we always seem to play well against them. Considering that we are 0-3 against Columbus this year and just lost to Carolina I wouldn't consider any games winnable. We have a better shot at stealing wins from the better teams we play this year. That's how it's kind of gone this year. Edited March 7, 2016 by Satans Hockey Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Triumph Posted March 7, 2016 Author Share Posted March 7, 2016 Take a look at what Buffalo iced a lot of last year. The Devils are not icing a worse team than that. Just because they've settled into a bad stretch doesn't mean they'll stay there forever. They'll win some games, just not a lot of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msweet Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 I have confidence in our management now to use all of these draft picks wisely.That's a positive spin for sure. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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