GDT: Calgary vs NJ

[Devil Dan 56]

I’m giving Nico more time for the offense to come around. Couturier for example didn’t hit big offensive numbers until he was 25-26 with back to back 76 point seasons. I don’t think Nico can create much without a little help though. 

A huge thing for us is that Mercer seems to be much more than the Henrique-level player I was expecting. He’s really something else. If he continues like this and Holtz and Muk continue the way they have trended this season, that draft is going to be huge for the Devils future. 

I’ve defended Subban plenty, but the slew footing garbage has to go. There’s absolutely no reason for that. He’s been terrible so far this year even without that stuff. 

Lastly, I feel vindicated for defending Zacha all those times. 

[mfitz804]

1 minute ago, Devil Dan 56 said:

’ve defended Subban plenty, but the slew footing garbage has to go. There’s absolutely no reason for that. He’s been terrible so far this year even without that stuff. 

 

[Devil Dan 56]

4 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

 

If he keeps that up he’s gonna get a crane kick, which with a skate is probably very painful. 

[SterioDesign]

I'm personaly not giving up on Bratt yet. Sure he had bad games this year but many many NHLers even superstars have slow starts every single season. I'll revisit this at the 20 games mark

[mfitz804]

Just now, SterioDesign said:

I'm personaly not giving up on Bratt yet. Sure he had bad games this year but many many NHLers even superstars have slow starts every single season. I'll revisit this at the 20 games mark

Fair statement. We’re still a team with like what, 9 new players in our starting lineup, and it’s only 5 games into the season. 

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

5 minutes ago, Devil Dan 56 said:

I’m giving Nico more time for the offense to come around. Couturier for example didn’t hit big offensive numbers until he was 25-26 with back to back 76 point seasons. I don’t think Nico can create much without a little help though. 

A huge thing for us is that Mercer seems to be much more than the Henrique-level player I was expecting. He’s really something else. If he continues like this and Holtz and Muk continue the way they have trended this season, that draft is going to be huge for the Devils future. 

I’ve defended Subban plenty, but the slew footing garbage has to go. There’s absolutely no reason for that. He’s been terrible so far this year even without that stuff. 

Lastly, I feel vindicated for defending Zacha all those times. 

Not everything that happened previously with Zacha was fully on him, though he was definitely very frustrating at times...if anything, it's becoming more and more clear that he was rushed a year or two before he was truly ready (and not playing in ideal circumstances to begin with).  Will be interesting to see how his Age 25-30 seasons go...I'd sign up for 25+ G and 50+ points from him (with solid two-way play) right now.  

Re:  Mercer and Nico, man it feels like Mercer is going to surpass him sooner than later, in terms of production and pure electricity.  That kid has something.  What's scaring me about Nico at the moment is how easy it appears to be shut him down offensively so far, in this very young season...of course, if he the post he hits in the first game goes in, and the goal that came 0.1 seconds too late had counted, maybe we're singing a different tune.  But the 18-year-old who first came up with the Devils in 2021 looked more promising than the 22-year-old with 235 NHL games under his belt does now.  Crazy as it sounds, depending on if Jack can stay healthy, and if Dawson can really become that "steal of the draft" kind of player, I can see Nico winding up being the 3C here, which sounds completely insane (don't even really like typing it, because I like Nico so damned much).  It's only five games and I can think of plenty of players who looked damned good early on (Bratt), but some guys just seem to have a little magic.  I think Dawson's going to be that guy who just keeps stubbornly exceeding expectations.

(really hope that I'm not digging up this post in 2-3 years and saying "Man did I jump the gun on THAT one...")    

[devlman]

2 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Not everything that happened previously with Zacha was fully on him, though he was definitely very frustrating at times...if anything, it's becoming more and more clear that he was rushed a year or two before he was truly ready (and not playing in ideal circumstances to begin with).  Will be interesting to see how his Age 25-30 seasons go...I'd sign up for 25+ G and 50+ points from him (with solid two-way play) right now.  

Re:  Mercer and Nico, man it feels like Mercer is going to surpass him sooner than later, in terms of production and pure electricity.  That kid has something.  What's scaring me about Nico at the moment is how easy it appears to be shut him down offensively so far, in this very young season...of course, if he the post he hits in the first game goes in, and the goal that came 0.1 seconds too late had counted, maybe we're singing a different tune.  But the 18-year-old who first came up with the Devils in 2021 looked more promising than the 22-year-old with 235 NHL games under his belt does now.  Crazy as it sounds, depending on if Jack can stay healthy, and if Dawson can really become that "steal of the draft" kind of player, I can see Nico winding up being the 3C here, which sounds completely insane (don't even really like typing it, because I like Nico so damned much).  It's only five games and I can think of plenty of players who looked damned good early on (Bratt), but some guys just seem to have a little magic.  I think Dawson's going to be that guy who just keeps stubbornly exceeding expectations.

(really hope that I'm not digging up this post in 2-3 years and saying "Man did I jump the gun on THAT one...")    

It’s 5 whole games in, let’s pump the brakes lol. Last night was the first game Nico looked bad. The first four games he had a goal, had one disallowed, hit a couple posts and played well. He’ll up his game as we go.

[SterioDesign]

19 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

Fair statement. We’re still a team with like what, 9 new players in our starting lineup, and it’s only 5 games into the season. 

I know he's been in the league for a few years but to me Bratt is still ahead of schedule. He's been averaging 30+ points every season he played and he made the team almost right away as a 6th round pick. 

To really get a goo sense of where he should be it's important to compare him to his peers so well, he's currently 8th in points out of his draft class and look where he was picked compared to others. Just for that reason i'm still giving him a pass. 

I get it, he hasnt been great this season. And he tripped and caused a goal last night. We lost, fans got emotional and angry and they needed a boogeyman and there he was. But it's only been 5 games

I mean some are sh!tting on Bratt while he's been way ahead of schedule than McLeod who was our first round pick. 

Edited October 27, 2021 by SterioDesign

[DevsMan84]

Has Bratt exceed expectations of a 6th rounder?  Absolutely.

Is Bratt a type of player who belongs in the top 6?  Absolutely not.

[SterioDesign]

Just now, DevsMan84 said:

Has Bratt exceed expectations of a 6th rounder?  Absolutely.

Is Bratt a type of player who belongs in the top 6?  Absolutely not.

This is true. But that's not his fault if he's put there. It means we don't have enough top 6 talent. The blame shouldnt be on him for not being that. Some folks here has been pretty damn harsh on him last night

[mfitz804]

1 minute ago, SterioDesign said:

This is true. But that's not his fault if he's put there. It means we don't have enough top 6 talent. The blame shouldnt be on him for not being that. Some folks here has been pretty damn harsh on him last night

Correct. 

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

3 minutes ago, SterioDesign said:

I'm personaly not giving up on Bratt yet. Sure he had bad games this year but many many NHLers even superstars have slow starts every single season. I'll revisit this at the 20 games mark

We'll see if being benched gets him going.  He did play with more energy after that.

It's not like he's been a slow starter every year though...in each of his first four seasons, he had at least five points through 10 GP (not that points alone are the be-all end-all).  But he just seems very off so far...apparently Ruff thought so too.  Fingers crossed that he gets it going...Devils can't afford many passengers.

Re:  your last post, considering he was a 6th-round pick, I understand that...it's that he's constantly promises more, almost from Day 1.  Even Chico was apparently knocking him last night...not sure "but he was a 6th-rounder" should constantly get him off the hook.    

13 minutes ago, devlman said:

It’s 5 whole games in, let’s pump the brakes lol. Last night was the first game Nico looked bad. The first four games he had a goal, had one disallowed, hit a couple posts and played well. He’ll up his game as we go.

The last three games (since Hughes has been out) he's been a lot quieter.  It's small-sample stuff, I get that entirely.  I pointed out that if Nico gets those goals, maybe there's not as much criticism.  But yeah, I'm concerned about iffy he's been looking on offense.  And not like the Devils will be able to play teams like the Blackhawks and Kraken all season.    

 

[SterioDesign]

Just now, mfitz804 said:

Correct. 

He's also getting paid 2.7m per season. And he had 30 pts in 46 games last season, that's a 53pts pace through a full season. And was on pace for 43 pts the season before. And again, as a 6th rounder in 2016.

I'm truly not sure what some people are expecting more of him really

[SterioDesign]

10 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

We'll see if being benched gets him going.  He did play with more energy after that.

It's not like he's been a slow starter every year though...in each of his first four seasons, he had at least five points through 10 GP (not that points alone are the be-all end-all).  But he just seems very off so far...apparently Ruff thought so too.  Fingers crossed that he gets it going...Devils can't afford many passengers.

Re:  your last post, considering he was a 6th-round pick, I understand that...it's that he's constantly promises more, almost from Day 1.  Even Chico was apparently knocking him last night...not sure "but he was a 6th-rounder" should constantly get him off the hook.    

Well "promised" more... is that fair?

Again, repeating what i just said above. Look at this stats so far in the NHL, look at what he's getting paid and look where he was drafted and what he was projected to be.

So is he below expectations on what he could realistically be? Or is he just not reaching expectations based on him for overachieving early?

And we're not talking about finding excuses for a guy like... Jamie Benn being a late round pick but proven superstar. Bratt has been pretty consistent in his production and rising a bit every year, which i find is pretty fair considering everything else

Edited October 27, 2021 by SterioDesign

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

13 minutes ago, SterioDesign said:

Well "promised" more... is that fair?

Again, repeating what i just said above. Look at this stats so far in the NHL, look at what he's getting paid and look where he was drafted and what he was projected to be.

So is he below expectations on what he could realistically be? Or is he just not reaching expectations based on him for overachieving early?

I've mentioned elsewhere that forcing his way into the NHL as a 19-year-old and looking very dynamic early on raised expectations.  And maybe indeed it's time to start lowering them.

He's in his Age 23 season and about to go RFA for the second time.  I'm hoping by the end of this season, we have a firmer idea of what he really is, because the problem is we still don't quite know.  How much offense should he be expected to provide?  I've mentioned before that I think the last three seasons is a fair representation...about 16 G and 30 A per 82 GP.  What line is he getting that production on?  How much ice time will he need to put those numbers up?  Is he a guy who should 100% be part of the picture going forward...how much money is a guy like him worth?  For how long?  His actual salary for this season is $3.45 million...should Fitz want to re-up him for over $4 million per season, for 3+ years? 

I guess I'm hoping that after he turns in his fifth season, we'll have some clear answers to these questions.    

Edited October 27, 2021 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[mfitz804]

He is a 0.55 PPG guy for his career thus far. If you find that in the 6th round, you've won. 

Better than Zacha who you drafted in the first round.

Better than Jack Hughes who you drafted first overall (cue the "but he's still young" thing, I get it, I'm just saying).

Just below Nico who you drafted first overall. 

In fact, aside from Nico, he may be the best PPG guy on the entire roster, at least as far as forwards go. 

I think that is excellent production from a 6th round pick. 

 

[SterioDesign]

5 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

I've mentioned elsewhere that forcing his way into the NHL as a 19-year-old and looking very dynamic early on raised expectations.  And maybe indeed it's time to start lowering them.

He's in his Age 23 season and about to go RFA for the second time.  I'm hoping by the end of this season, we have a firmer idea of what he really is, because the problem is we still don't quite know.  How much offense should he be expected to provide?  I've mentioned before that I think the last three seasons is a fair representation...about 16 G and 30 A per 82 GP.  What line is he getting that production on?  How much ice team will be need to put those numbers up?  Is he a guy who should 100% be part of the picture going forward...how much money is a guy like him worth?  For how long?  His actual salary for this season is $3.45 million...should Fitz want to re-up him for over $4 million per season, for 3+ years? 

I guess I'm hoping that after he turns in his fifth season, we'll have some clear answers to these questions.    

Well like i said, he's been VERY consistent all the way. What's not clear to you exactly?

Through his career he's his pace through 82 games

2017-2018 - 38 pts

2018-2019 - 53 pts

2019-2020 - 43 pts

2020-2021 - 53 pts

I mean, can't we just accept at this point that this is what he is? And why wouldn't we be happy about getting that production from a 6th rounder?

Edited October 27, 2021 by SterioDesign

[mfitz804]

Just now, SterioDesign said:

Well like i said, he's been VERY consistent all the way. What's not clear to you exactly?

Through his career he's his pace through 82 games

2017-2018 - 38 pts

2018-2019 - 53 pts

2019-2020 - 43 pts

2020-2021 - 53 pts

I mean, can't we just accept at this point that this is what he is? 

During a time period where, for the most part, the team has consistently blown goats, as well. 

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

4 minutes ago, SterioDesign said:

Well like i said, he's been VERY consistent all the way. What's not clear to you exactly?

Through his career he's his pace through 82 games

2017-2018 - 38 pts

2018-2019 - 53 pts

2019-2020 - 43 pts

2020-2021 - 53 pts

I mean, can't we just accept at this point that this is what he is? And why wouldn't we be happy about getting that production from a 6th rounder?

Had a typo, he's averaged 16 G and 33 A over 82 GP over the last three years.

Yeah, guess we can accept that about 50 points is his top end, if he ever plays in all 82 games (I have a range of 40-50 myself).  Like I said before, guess it's a question of dialing down and recalibrating expectations.  

He has not looked good so far in this young season though, and I definitely support his being benched.  Also think a guy playing for what could be his first longer-term deal and what should be a solid raise simply needs to show more than he has...at least be the player of the last three seasons.  He has time to do that.

[mfitz804]

PK Slewbban has been fined $5,000 for his trip on Lucic.

Absolutely ridiculous that that is the maximum fine allowed, salary wise I believe that’s like if the average person were fined $25. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.tsn.ca/p-k-subban-fined-milan-lucic-calgary-flames-1.1712309%3ftsn-amp

[SterioDesign]

2 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

PK Slewbban has been fined $5,000 for his trip on Lucic.

Absolutely ridiculous that that is the maximum fine allowed, salary wise I believe that’s like if the average person were fined $25. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.tsn.ca/p-k-subban-fined-milan-lucic-calgary-flames-1.1712309%3ftsn-amp

We're talking about a guy who's been fine 3 TIMES in the same season for diving. He's simply not learning. I always said his problem is between his 2 ears. So he can post 40 workout videos every day, won't change a damn thing.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

2 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

PK Slewbban has been fined $5,000 for his trip on Lucic.

Absolutely ridiculous that that is the maximum fine allowed, salary wise I believe that’s like if the average person were fined $25. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.tsn.ca/p-k-subban-fined-milan-lucic-calgary-flames-1.1712309%3ftsn-amp

Yeah seriously that's supposed to be a deterrent?

From now on, I'm taking your lead...PK Slewbban it is!

[Devilsfan118]

5k fines for athletes on non-rookie contracts is a joke.  I mean hell even on a rookie deal 5k is nothing.

Should be a %-based fee, imo, but good luck getting that past the NHLPA.

[mfitz804]

2 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Yeah seriously that's supposed to be a deterrent?

From now on, I'm taking your lead...PK Slewbban it is!

It's really not. It's the same reason why people drive around and constantly get speeding tickets. If I get caught, I'll just pay it, who gives a sh!t?

As far as the name goes. I mean it just fits perfectly in there lol. 

[mfitz804]

Just now, MB3 said:

I don't think anyone is arguing that he isn't worth his draft capital. If they are, that's just "drool while talking" levels of dumb. 

I also don't think you can look at point totals in a vaccuum. He has consistently been given top-line minutes (not just top-6 minutes; top line minutes) his entire NHL career. He's never really had to play without Nico or Jack. He went from Nico and Hall to Nico and Palms to Nico and Zacha to Hughes and Johnsson. He's a coddled player on the ice; mostly due to the fact that he can't (won't? doesn't?) play defense. At all. When the Devils are on the PP, in his career, he's on the ice almost 44% of the time. That's a LOT of powerplay minutes. He's rarely asked to play PK minutes, he's never asked to play on d-zone draws, he's never on the ice late in games. At some point, when you're giving a player like Jesper this much opportunity (and opportunity is what he is getting, do not get that confused), you need to see something out of him. His highest career goal total is 16, and that came with a silly shooting percentage of almost 17%! 

He doesn't hit. He doesn't play defense. He doesn't kill penalties. He doesn't drive play. He shows flashes of pure brilliance and then disappears completely for a week; and the Devils need more out of their top-6  if they're going to win anything at all. Through 5 games this year he's getting 15:20 minutes of ice time and almost a full THREE MINUTES of PP time, and he hasn't even fallen ass backwards into a secondary assist yet. That's very, very much not good. 

I'm not disagreeing that his play needs to be better than this year. But if he winds up at 0.55 PPG, I think you're getting what you need to get out of him. The problem is viewing him as a top 6 guy when I don't think, other than his skating speed, he fits that mold.