The real problem

[Colin226]

And you think if you had looked at numbers the team before the slump happened you would have said, "well this team will obviously slump starting next game"? No, you probably wouldn't have. Teams gravitate towards their normal play and Tri gave a spate of numbers showing why the recent play is under performing even bad teams normal play.

This is like a baseball playing hitting .400 over a 10 game streak so you pitch around him in the 11th game when there is no reason to think the player will continue to hit .400. It's also like when a team win 10 games in a row and then loses 3 of their next 4. Based on teams being "hot" or "playing like they're great" those guys on the hot streaks should never stop being hot or winning, but they do, because eventually they start playing like their regular selves again. All players and teams have ups and downs, sometimes little ones and sometimes big ones, you can't predict the next game or at bat based on what has happened immediately prior, you're much better off predicting based on what the team or player will do under regular circumstances.

Ok so then you follow the Tri school of thought.. Like I said, it's just a difference of opinion when analyzing statistics and a reason why people feel statistics don't hold the keys to every answer...

I just know from personal athletic experience that the "human element" (as Tri calls it) can be VERY huge in sports.. I've been on sh!t teams that have won 10 in a row because we just got hot.. And I've been on stacked teams where no one can catch a break..

What you're also saying is that no team that has played bad all season, but has won their last 5 games, is actually going to become a good team.. I give them the benefit of the doubt to become hot and a great team but that's my method

In the end, as you say, teams have a way of evening themselves out.. Like I said, I think we will get better than this but in the short run I'll stick with my methods

Conclusion: No one can predict the future.. Glad we solved that mystery

[Colin226]

You really can't do that because you're pre-judging the data. You're picking an artificial point to start collecting data because that's the data that most supports the point you want to use, that the team is poor. You try not to limit sample size whenever possible, and in most cases you'd like a sample size to be at least 30 in most cases, but in the case of a sports season there really isn't much reason to not use the whole season, except in cases of major roster changes and the only major roster change for the Devils very recently is a positive one.

Well 30 is good if you have 100 or more in your population.. And sports have the "human element" so I feel they should be judged differently.. And that's why I use my method

You certainly wouldn't use 30 for a sport like, say, football haha

By the way, I'm loving this debate.. Normally these things turn to sh!t shows but we've really kept it going in a positive direction

Edited February 11, 2010 by Colin226

[Devils731]

I've been on sh!t teams that have won 10 in a row because we just got hot.. And I've been on stacked teams where no one can catch a break..

But I think that's the point, the bad team was still bad, even though they won 10 in a row, and you still wouldn't expect them to start being good and win game 11. Just like a bad baseball hitter who gets 3 hits in a row still isn't anymore likely to get his 4th hit in a row, even though he was hot for the first 3 at bats.

[devlman]

ok, you'll come around when we get fvcked up in the first round. at this point i just hope to god its not the rangers or flyers. believe me, i want to believe in this team.

btw, i am a mets fan. you know what we said 2-3 years ago? 'ohh well its better to slump now before the playoffs so we heat up when we make it'. This has the end of last season written all over it and this team means to much to all of us for that to happen again.

Do you honestly think this team is going to play the same way after the olympic break? Thats not only unrealistic but pessimistic.

And im a mets fan too, i never thought the mets would make the playoffs back then to begin with lol

[Colin226]

Do you honestly think this team is going to play the same way after the olympic break? Thats not only unrealistic but pessimistic.

And im a mets fan too

Wait, you're a Mets fan and you're not pessimistic?!?!

I'm a Mets fan too and as you can see I carry it with me to all my other teams

[Triumph]

Ok so then you follow the Tri school of thought.. Like I said, it's just a difference of opinion when analyzing statistics and a reason why people feel statistics don't hold the keys to every answer...

I just know from personal athletic experience that the "human element" (as Tri calls it) can be VERY huge in sports.. I've been on sh!t teams that have won 10 in a row because we just got hot.. And I've been on stacked teams where no one can catch a break..

What you're also saying is that no team that has played bad all season, but has won their last 5 games, is actually going to become a good team.. I give them the benefit of the doubt to become hot and a great team but that's my method

In the end, as you say, teams have a way of evening themselves out.. Like I said, I think we will get better than this but in the short run I'll stick with my methods

Conclusion: No one can predict the future.. Glad we solved that mystery

731 is simplifying things to make his point. i think we need to differentiate youth sports, where i'm sure that player improvement can be sudden and unpredictable, from professional sports, where millions upon millions of dollars are spent to ensure the closest to peak performance at all times.

I made the point in the other thread, but I don't think I expressed it well there - to me, all sports have elements that better predict the future than just wins, or even points scored/points allowed. so a 'bad team' that wins 5 in a row - well, we'd have to examine those wins, then examine the rest of the season - do they have a lot of young players who may be improving? have they had players return from injury? and so forth. but in examining those five wins, we would want to look if anything's particularly different. we probably won't find much, but if we do, and the team continues winning, it becomes increasingly more likely that we are not talking about a bad team.

it's not often that teams just become exceptional after one season - that's why you're seeing what you're seeing with the bruins and the canadiens, for example - they each had a full season where they played well above their expectations. same with the hurricanes - they're currently playing rather well, but a terrible stretch of the season doomed their playoff hopes.

to me, the numbers in hockey that generally correlate with winning are things like outshooting the other team at even strength, and drawing more penalties than the other team. i think winning teams, more often than not, are going to do those two things, and in the long run, those are the sorts of things to examine.

Edited February 11, 2010 by Triumph

[devlman]

Wait, you're a Mets fan and you're not pessimistic?!?!

I'm a Mets fan too and as you can see I carry it with me to all my other teams

With the Mets Im very much pessimistic!! Baseball is a bit tougher because there are very few playoff berths available. A bad streak can send you out of the race all at once. With hockey, you can rebound going into the playoffs.

I feel after the olympic break this team is going to rebound and find their form. Just like i didnt think we were the greatest team in November I dont think now that we are horrible.

There are alot of reasons for our poor form but let everything settle. It is February and give the team a chance to gel and rest before calling for the coach's head. Its not his fault we are banged up. We were supposed to sturggle to make the playoffs going into this season and yet we are on top of our division. Therefore, let this team enjoy its olympic break and come back SC contenders.

[Colin226]

it's not often that teams just become exceptional after one season - that's why you're seeing what you're seeing with the bruins and the canadiens, for example - they each had a full season where they played well above their expectations. same with the hurricanes - they're currently playing rather well, but a terrible stretch of the season doomed their playoff hopes.

to me, the numbers in hockey that generally correlate with winning are things like outshooting the other team at even strength, and drawing more penalties than the other team. i think winning teams, more often than not, are going to do those two things, and in the long run, those are the sorts of things to examine.

I see what you're saying although some of those factors are left up to chance.. Most, if not all, expected Oduya to play like he did last season when he came back from injury but that never happened.. Martin could be the same way, so I choose to be pessimistic until he proves me wrong..

I mean yeah they are paid to be good, but that doesn't mean they actually play that way.. Money doesn't take away the mental aspect of the game so I still feel that things like confidence and hot/cold streaks make a huge impact

The Canes this season are an interesting example and relevant since we play them Saturday.. Now looking at that game using our seasons (and even past match ups) as indicators it would be easy to say we will crush them BUT when you only look at how these two teams have played recently you could make a solid argument for the Canes being the victor.. My feeling is that it's better to look at how the teams are playing now and judge them as such, than look at how the teams were playing months ago

[Colin226]

With the Mets Im very much pessimistic!! Baseball is a bit tougher because there are very few playoff berths available. A bad streak can send you out of the race all at once. With hockey, you can rebound going into the playoffs.

I feel after the olympic break this team is going to rebound and find their form. Just like i didnt think we were the greatest team in November I dont think now that we are horrible.

There are alot of reasons for our poor form but let everything settle. It is February and give the team a chance to gel and rest before calling for the coach's head. Its not his fault we are banged up. We were supposed to sturggle to make the playoffs going into this season and yet we are on top of our division. Therefore, let this team enjoy its olympic break and come back SC contenders.

For a second I thought you were saying you're not a pessimistic Mets fan and then I would just have to call BS on you haha

Well I completely hope and pray your right with your hockey predictions.. Maybe being a Mets fan for so long and seeing them collapse so many times has just fvcked me up for life.. No lead is ever too big, because the Mets always find a way to lose and I guess that feeling lingers with me in other sports

[devlman]

For a second I thought you were saying you're not a pessimistic Mets fan and then I would just have to call BS on you haha

Well I completely hope and pray your right with your hockey predictions.. Maybe being a Mets fan for so long and seeing them collapse so many times has just fvcked me up for life.. No lead is ever too big, because the Mets always find a way to lose and I guess that feeling lingers with me in other sports

Lol yeah the Mets generally make people miserable. Ive learned to accept that they are sh!t, thus taking away the pain from having expectations!

Our Devs are far too talented offensively and in goal, and too banged up physically to not come back after the break a better and stronger unit.

Edited February 11, 2010 by devlman

[nj96]

Going through this thread, there's a couple things I think are important (it started as 2 things but grew)...

1) This isn't that same team that was winning early on. With all the injuries came a lot of youth joining the lineup. Youth who were all playing for potential roster spots and trying to stand out instead of being happy as "part-of-a-whole". I think it was around when Pando and Oduya came back when this skid started and, not to overstate (or understate) the uselessness of Pando and Niedermayer, they are completely useless. I'd rather have a few hungry rookies in there and take our chances with a "strength-against-strength" defensive strategy instead of line matching...

2) There were a lot of games in the early run where the team gave up an early lead just to get it back in the third for the win. Maybe some luck was involved and they were great comebacks at the time but I think they were masking what was really happening with all those blown leads...

3) Basic plays like passing, one-timers, finding space to receive the puck, etc. are nowhere to be found with this squad. It seems like everyone's waiting for the guy with the puck to do something while the guys with the puck is waiting for the rest of the people to do something... It just seems like there's no one on the team (other than Parise) who's saying "give me the puck".

4) I've felt this team's leadership has been in question since the Scotts left. Maybe I'm just not down with an offensive leader or maybe Elias and Jamie just rub the wrong way from a leadership perspective or maybe it's because Jamie cries like a little girl whenever he gets called on a penalty... I won't revisit what's in the "team softness" thread but that's a case in point as is the Marty/Avery thing.

5) Brodeur needs to be rested. Period. There's absolutely no reason he's playing as much as he is (along with some back-to-back games) when there's a compressed schedule and the olympics to deal with. He's not 25 anymore...

Personally, I think this team's been slowly deteriorating for a couple years now. From the last cup team, some serious talent has walked out the door (not that I'm saying we should have signed Gomex, Gionta or the like) to be replaced by lesser parts. Even the 4th line who could always be counted on for energy and a goal here and there have disappeared. That said, they have talent now and, with the parity in the league as it is, it should be enough to make things interesting...

Let's just hope it's because the whole team's tired... Because if this team doesn't pull out of this soon, we're going to end up fighting for 6-8 with 7 other teams and I don't like the odds there, especially when 2 of them seem to have our number...

[Mitico12]

The players have run out of interest. That's pretty much what I can see out there. I see a few guys running their own "pages" on the ice, not really caring much if the team wins in the end.

Our defense, notably Mike Mottau, is a liability, so that doesn't help either.

We shot our load early in the season, and are now finally coming down to earth.

Can't fault JL for having the wrong kind of "eggs" for the omlette he wishes to make. Too many old guys on the team...not enough energy and charisma (Rolston, McCammond, Niedermayer)

Give Patty the captaincy again...see what happens.

[HellOnICE]

The players have run out of interest. That's pretty much what I can see out there. I see a few guys running their own "pages" on the ice, not really caring much if the team wins in the end.

Our defense, notably Mike Mottau, is a liability, so that doesn't help either.

We shot our load early in the season, and are now finally coming down to earth.

Can't fault JL for having the wrong kind of "eggs" for the omlette he wishes to make. Too many old guys on the team...not enough energy and charisma (Rolston, McCammond, Niedermayer)

Give Patty the captaincy again...see what happens.

Run out of interest?

I might give you we have too many older players on the bottom lines, absolutely agree with you there - but "no interest" - that's pretty strong.

So changing the captaincy would change this?

[devlman]

The point of the thread was to lay full blame for the recent form on JL, and i think most (if not all) here think that is ridiculous.

[maxpower]

Run out of interest?

I might give you we have too many older players on the bottom lines, absolutely agree with you there - but "no interest" - that's pretty strong.

So changing the captaincy would change this?

it's a broad stroke, but I can think of one player whose interest level has dragged down a tad. and it's not winky, he's always the same thing.

[DevilinLA]

The players have run out of interest. That's pretty much what I can see out there. I see a few guys running their own "pages" on the ice, not really caring much if the team wins in the end.

Our defense, notably Mike Mottau, is a liability, so that doesn't help either.

We shot our load early in the season, and are now finally coming down to earth.

Can't fault JL for having the wrong kind of "eggs" for the omlette he wishes to make. Too many old guys on the team...not enough energy and charisma (Rolston, McCammond, Niedermayer)

Give Patty the captaincy again...see what happens.

Absolutely. Positively. The stupidest move that could de made now.

Give the "C" (as meaningless as it may be) to some "fan favorite", probably struggling to deal with post-concussion symptoms at some level, to a guy who notably has disappeared in the playoffs for some time now (whether because he's hurt or what).

I'm not on the Elias bandwagon. I don't hate him, he's a talented player and he has his GWG rep. in the regular season, but i think his days as an elite player are fading fast.

It took Langs 2 years to grow into the comfortability of that letter - don't fvck with it.

[maxpower]

Absolutely. Positively. The stupidest move that could de made now.

Give the "C" (as meaningless as it may be) to some "fan favorite", probably struggling to deal with post-concussion symptoms at some level, to a guy who notably has disappeared in the playoffs for some time now (whether because he's hurt or what).

I'm not on the Elias bandwagon. I don't hate him, he's a talented player and he has his GWG rep. in the regular season, but i think his days as an elite player are fading fast.

It took Langs 2 years to grow into the comfortability of that letter - don't fvck with it.

last year was his first bad playoff since 2003. he was basically the only person that scored goals against the Rangers.

and even in 2003, he had a good (not great) Final... just the rest of it was really pathetic.

Edited February 11, 2010 by maxpower

[Devils Pride 26]

It took Langs 2 years to grow into the comfortability of that letter - don't fvck with it.

Maybe that's the problem. Too comfortable. Accepting not only losing but getting bitched out by the rags and the flyers 3 games in a row. The only one who took a stand was patty nailing gagne.

[RSC]

Maybe that's the problem. Too comfortable. Accepting not only losing but getting bitched out by the rags and the flyers 3 games in a row. The only one who took a stand was patty nailing gagne.

Are you going by quotes from Langs? Because I haven't seen any of his quotes lately, but I'd be surprised if any of them accepted defeat. Anyway, we don't know what goes on behind closed doors. There's a reason Langs is the captain (of both this team and the Olympic team) and it very well could be his locker room presence that we have absolutely no idea about. Should he be leading better on the ice? Absolutely. But I guarantee that he is the first player Lemaire had a private meeting with today, and I won't be surprised if he plays well tomorrow night. Maybe that's too optimistic, but that's how I feel right now.

[Devils Pride 26]

Are you going by quotes from Langs? Because I haven't seen any of his quotes lately, but I'd be surprised if any of them accepted defeat. Anyway, we don't know what goes on behind closed doors. There's a reason Langs is the captain (of both this team and the Olympic team) and it very well could be his locker room presence that we have absolutely no idea about. Should he be leading better on the ice? Absolutely. But I guarantee that he is the first player Lemaire had a private meeting with today, and I won't be surprised if he plays well tomorrow night. Maybe that's too optimistic, but that's how I feel right now.

Yeah I haven't looked into that and don't really intend to. Actions speak louder than words and lately they haven't been good. Watching teammates get smashed and doing nothing. That alone bothers me, let alone losing. Yesterday when patty nailed gagne carcallio chases elias down. carcallio should have got mugged by the four other guys out there. THAT CAN'T HAPPEN!

[Triumph]

Yeah I haven't looked into that and don't really intend to. Actions speak louder than words and lately they haven't been good. Watching teammates get smashed and doing nothing. That alone bothers me, let alone losing. Yesterday when patty nailed gagne carcallio chases elias down. carcallio should have got mugged by the four other guys out there. THAT CAN'T HAPPEN!

why? so they could take a penalty? carcillo did nothing, and if he did, he was going to take a penalty.

[Devs3cups]

I thiNK lEMAIRE HAS BEEN A GREAT coach for us.

You can't blame him for the team being bad.

[njdevil26]

Honestly... I liked the mid season of last year type of coaching from Sutter. More offense... with responsibility defensively. More creativity... the team was scoring 4-5-6 goals a night. This line matching defense stuff is NOT WORKING.

[SS-SS]

Personally i don't think someone had to be declared guilty because we lose games.

We are simply in a Slump,maybe a big slump but to me a slump is a slump.The whole team is playing like sh!t but what do you want to do??

Yes we maybe need a second line center and we also need a D men and yes Rolston and Niedermayer obviously sucks but we were winning with this same team earlier.Also don't forget that we lost a lot of players because of injuries.

When you are in a slump you fight to get out of it even if sometime it takes time.

We are still pretty lucky cuz when you look at the Eastern Conference we are still Second.

We maybe need a deal to get a good D men but other than that I say plz NO PANIC...at least until we start falling down in the standings

Edited February 12, 2010 by SS-SS

[Devils Pride 26]

why? so they could take a penalty? carcillo did nothing, and if he did, he was going to take a penalty.

im not talking about taking a penalty, getting in someones face after the whistle is fine. we are missing a lot of that in clarkson, however, playing tough and chippy is something that rubs off on the whole team. im not even asking for fights, i want them to play scrapier, not getting shoved around. The little bit of attitude goes a long way. Could be the spark we need.