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nessus

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nessus last won the day on August 12 2022

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  1. nessus

    Alexander Holtz

    Alex is one of the more polarizing players around here. It seems like a bunch of us really like him and feel like he has a good NHL future ahead of him, while the rest don't see him in this organization's competitive window and want him traded. In this thread, I wanted to make an argument for Holtz's value to the New Jersey Devils. To start, I think it's important to make note of what Holtz is and what he is not. Holtz is not: one of the team's top defensive forwards, an excellent skater, a PKer, a top play driver, or a physical force. Holtz is: a forward with strong offensive instincts, an excellent shot, good work ethic, and underrated passing ability/vision/playmaking. Holtz played 11:38 per game this season, which edges out only Nate Bastian, Chris Tierney, and Kurtis MacDermid among regulars in the lineup. And he spent considerable time on the fourth line with the likes of Tierney and Willman. Despite this, Holtz performed pretty well this season from an offensive production standpoint. His stats line of 16 goals, 12 assists, and 28 points may not jump off the page at you, but if you take a deeper look, he did quite well with the poor opportunity he was given. With 16 goals, Holtz tied Erik Haula for 6th on the team. I looked at some more advanced stats, including only Devils players who had 100 minutes or more of ice time this season (disclaimer: my reference did not include players traded before the deadline, so Toffoli is not accounted for here). This is all at 5 on 5. Holtz ranked 3rd in goals per 60 minutes, 4th in points per 60, and 5th in shots per 60. His Corsi and Fenwick were admittedly not very good at 5 on 5, ranking 19th and 20th, respectively. In all situations: Holtz ranked 6th in goals/60, shots/60, and points/60 minutes. He was 5th in shot attempts per 60. Among forwards, he was 5th in shot attempts against per 60. He was 6th among forwards in Corsi and Fenwick. These stats of course do not tell the whole story. He has had his share of weaker games, and he certainly would not have been relegated to the 4th line for much of the season if he was looking like a star out there. But the truth of the matter is that even without considering Holtz's poor usage, he consistently finished in the top 6 in multiple offensive metrics. On a team that has Bratt, Jack, Hischier, and Meier, that is quite encouraging. I would argue that both the coaching staff and management have done a disservice both to Holtz and to the team dating back to last season by publicly criticizing his play, limiting his usage, and consistently scratching him to the point that he needed to ask to be sent to the AHL. Holtz was drafted to be a complimentary piece to a team that was set on centers/play drivers. He really has not been given the opportunity to fill this role with the strange high standard he is held to, which many other young players are not. Holtz is someone that the Devils should not trade. His value is as low as it likely will ever be. You would hate to see the organization give up on another player who has shown flashes, only to go elsewhere and score 30 goals (e.g. Sharangovich). There will be a time very soon where the Devils will wish they had more cheap home grown talent to help fill out the roster. That's when you wish you had a Holtz or two. It is time for the organization to invest in the player that they chose to draft so early.
  2. I’m rooting for the Leafs for two reasons: 1. Bruins losing in the first round, especially after leading 3-1 in the series, could drive down the cost of their goalies. Fitz likely is looking at them. 2. The Rangers second round matchup is not going to be easy. I can easily see it going to 7 tough games. I see Florida being much fresher after a series against the Leafs than a series against the more physical Bruins. That Florida team can definitely bring down a tired Rangers team.
  3. Inside the top 25 in points for defensemen as a rookie, top pair on the Wild, very good defensively. Bedard, as sensational as he is offensively, is pretty awful defensively. Faber would get my vote.
  4. Rooting for Luke, but Faber probably is most deserving. We all know Bedard will be the winner though.
  5. In a strong draft like this one, that top 10 pick is worth a lot. If they get a player for the pick, it better be a very good one. And I'm getting less inclined to use it on a lot of the goalie targets that have been suggested in the media. I would definitely use the pick, possibly as part of a trade package, for a goaltending prospect that is on the brink of breaking into the NHL. Askarov, Dustin Wolf, and Wallstedt would be some options. A cool potential scenario is if Calgary gets to pick #9 with a player they really like (e.g. Buium, Dickinson, Catton, etc.), but also want Tij Iginla. I would be willing to trade them #10 overall for Dustin Wolf so they could have both. If it's for Ullmark, I think I would rather just keep the pick, and find cheaper goaltending help elsewhere. A player like Brandsegg-Nygard could help the team quicker than most would think. And if not him, imagine a defense made up of Hamilton, Nemec, Luke, Marino, Seamus Casey, and one of Buium/Dickinson/Silayev from this draft. A good system and even average goaltending would be all you need.
  6. I like Tij Iginla a lot, but with Calgary picking right before the Devils, is there any way they would pass on him? I'm starting to like Brandsegg-Nygard for the Devils' pick. I could see him shooting up the rankings if he has a good world championship tournament. If Zeev Buium is available when the Devils pick, I think you have to take him, even if he is somewhat redundant in our system. More high quality assets are always better.
  7. Fitz likely will take his time with the coaching hire, as he should. The thing is that Berube seems like the most obvious choice, but he may not actually be the best fit for this group. I don't think any of us know that one way or the other for certain. I won't be surprised at all if Fitz hires someone who is a bit more under the radar. The fan base would completely lose it, but that doesn't mean that Fitz whiffed.
  8. I'm glad they got embarrassed at home by a mediocre team to close out the season. I don't want anyone, especially not Fitz, to walk away from this season with anything but a bitter taste in their mouth. Lots of work to be done, and it starts now. Let's go 2024-2025 Devils.
  9. I cannot agree with this any more. Fitz was so good at creating a team identity, but these replacement players were not sufficient to maintain what Fitz had built. It was absolutely one of the many reasons for the regression this season.
  10. Really goes to show you how special of a player Jack is. He was winning games for the team early in the season, and especially last season. He likely singlehandedly kept Lindy afloat for so long. But injured Jack couldn't quite do it, despite still being the team's best player. Hoping for a speedy recovery for him.
  11. I don't think we have to worry about Joel Quenneville coming here. Especially after being the only team with 2 players involved in the Hockey Canada case, it would be a completely ridiculous move to bring Quenneville in.
  12. If there were ever a perfect analogy for the Devils’ 2023-2024, I think a lifeless, drunk weenie is it
  13. Beautifully written. If it were a movie, NJ Dev would have to be played by Lindy Ruff. He would really nail that “huh” line.
  14. Just a perfect summary of this season in one game. They have consistently given us hope only to lose a big game against a weaker team immediately after. Onto next season...
  15. Nico, Timo, and Bratt all at the top of the card. That line was just clicking tonight. Timo's goal was awesome. Nico winning a battle and getting the puck to Bratt. Bratt with the patience to allow a scoring chance to develop. Timo finding the soft spot in front. Exactly what you want from that line.
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