Triumph's Eastern Playoff Preview

[Triumph]

This should definitely be an interesting year - there's already one great matchup in the first round, and other than Buffalo vs. No Goalie, these could all easily go seven games.

1. Buffalo vs. 8. New York Islanders

Team Records

Buffalo 54-21-7 115 points

New York Islanders 40-30-12 90 points

The important players: For the Sabres, it's all of them, since all of them are good. While they've lost some toughness from last year's team, the rise in Jason Pominville and Thomas Vanek's games, as well as the terrific play of rookie Drew Stafford, make them more formidable offensively. They can roll 4 lines capable of scoring, as well as 3 solid defensive pairings. There's a lot of finesse back there as well, but they're willing to block shots and play positional hockey. The Islanders have a lot of firepower and have ground their way back into the playoffs through sheer will - but they didn't exactly look great doing it. Jason Blake and Ryan Smyth have been elite scorers this year, but they will have their work cut out for them matching the Sabres. The Isles' defense is either 'bad' or 'worse than bad' - Sean Hill and Brendan Witt are good at taking hooking and holding minors, and the rest of the guys are finesse offensemen. EDGE: Sabres, by a lot

The goaltending matchup: - Ryan Miller (2.73 GAA, .911 SV%) vs. Wade Dubielewicz (inc.)

Ryan Miller isn't an All-Star starting goalie quite yet, but he's a solid backstop - he's had ups and downs this season, as young goalies often do. If it's Wade Dubielewicz in net, the Islanders will get a decent netminder - if Rick DiPietro comes back, they get an All-Star. EDGE: Sabres

Interesting fact. - Did you know this could be one of the most lopsided playoff matchups of all time? I guess that's not a fact.

SERIES PREDICTION - The Islanders got themselves two home dates - good for them. The team has a lot of grit but they're limping to the finish line without their starting goalie and a weak backline. The Sabres are the best offensive team in hockey. Final prediction: Buffalo in 4 - if DiPietro returns, Buffalo in 5.

2. New Jersey vs 7. Tampa Bay

Regular season records:

New Jersey - 49-24-9 - 107 pts

Tampa Bay - 44-33-5 - 93 pts

The important players: For Tampa Bay, the important players are the only players - Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis, Brad Richards, and to a lesser extent Vaclav Prospal, make up some of the most elite forwards in the NHL. Lecavalier has arrived as a top center in the league, and deserves the MVP perhaps more than Sidney Crosby. Martin St. Louis has rebounded from a subpar season to score 43 goals. Brad Richards has struggled this season but he's got a Conn Smythe. For the Devils, the Parise-Zajac-Langenbrunner line has scored consistently, but Patrik Elias and Scott Gomez have struggled through March and April. The series really hinges on John Madden and Jay Pandolfo's ability to control Lecavalier and St. Louis, and prevent their fantastic power play from dominating the series. EDGE: Tampa Bay

The goaltending matchup: Johan Holmqvist (2.85 GAA, .893 SV%) or Marc Denis (3.19 GAA, .883 SV% vs. Martin Brodeur (2.18 GAA, .922 SV%)

Both Holmqvist and Denis have struggled this season. Tampa Bay thought they were rescued from John Grahame and Sean Burke, but their goaltending might've gotten worse - Denis has not been the answer. They have a combined .888 save percentage - both goalies have the worst of any playoff goaltender. Martin Brodeur has been probably the top goalie in the league this season, but his playoff record is spotty - can he stop Tampa Bay, and can he win an overtime game? EDGE: C'mon, really?

Most interesting fact: Tampa Bay's save percentage in the shootout is barely worse than their in-game percentage - it's .887 in the shootout. For New Jersey, their GM has once again assumed the coaching role.

SERIES PREDICTION: Who knows? I mean - the Devils have been good, probably much better than Tampa based on points and goal differential, but they just replaced their coach and their top line has been hurt or asleep for the last month and a half. Tampa's got four of the top players in the league - but their goaltending is just too weak, even for the Devils. Final prediction: New Jersey in six

3. Atlanta vs. 6. New York Rangers

Team Records

Atlanta - 43-28-11 - 97 points

New York - 42-30-10 - 94 points

The important players: For the Rangers, it's about Jaromir Jagr, Sean Avery, and the top two defenders. Jagr's lost a step since last season, but he's still a great player who can dominate games. Sean Avery has propelled the Rangers with his fiery play and timely scoring - can he keep himself disciplined and continue to score during this series? And - who's going to stop Kovalchuk and Hossa, other than Henrik Lundqvist? For Atlanta - Hossa hasn't been stellar in the playoffs yet, and Kovalchuk's never been? Does Atlanta have the strength down the middle to compete with the Rangers? Do they have a defensive pair to shut down Jagr - will Alexei Zhitnik draw that matchup?

The goaltending matchup - Henrik Lundqvist (2.34 GAA, .917 SV%) vs. Kari Lethonen (2.79 GAA, .912 SV%)

Lehtonen's good, Lundqvist is better. Neither has much playoff experience, but Lundqvist has been extremely good down the stretch, unlike last season. Lethonen flies under the radar, but he's 13th in save percentage in the NHL among qualifying goalies. Can Lundqvist handle the pressure of the playoffs? He's already got an Olympic gold medal that suggests he can.

An interesting fact. Henrik Lundqvist and Kari Lehtonen played against each other in the gold medal game between Sweden and Finland last winter.

SERIES PREDICTION: The Rangers have been hot, Atlanta hasn't been - the Rangers have the better goalie and probably the better defensemen - if they can get a handle on Kovalchuk and Hossa, it could be a short series. Rangers in 6.

4. Ottawa vs. 5. Pittsburgh

Team Records

Ottawa - 48-25-9 105 points

Pittsburgh 47-24-11 105 points

The important players: For Ottawa, it starts and ends with Heatley, Alfredsson, and Spezza. These guys are electric - some of the other complements are gone, but Ottawa still steamrolls teams with the strength of these three elite forwards. Pittsburgh doesn't have the defense to stop them, but they do have the possible (bad choice) MVP in Sidney Crosby, and the almost sure ROY in Evgeni Malkin. Jordan Staal and Ryan Whitney are also terrific young players, and the Penguins loaded up at the deadline, getting enforcer Georges Laraque and veteran forward Gary Roberts. Ottawa has lost much of its depth since last season when Havlat and Smolinski got dealt. EDGE: Pittsburgh

The goaltending matchup - Ray Emery (2.47 GAA, .918 SV%) vs. Marc-Andre Fleury(2.83 GAA, .906)

Emery's been solid, recovering from his playoff disaster to beat out free agent import Martin Gerber to be the #1 guy. I don't think he should've taken on Andrew Peters. MA Fleury has struggled at times this year and it's reflected in his SV%, but has been excellent at times this year as well. He doesn't really have a defense in front of him either, so some games he will get pummeled. Still, Emery's got some playoff experience, even if it wasn't very good. EDGE: Even

Interesting fact - These two teams' rosters combined have a total of 8 players drafted 1st, 2nd, or 3rd overall in the NHL Entry Draft.

SERIES PREDICTION - What a series this could be. Two great first lines, all sorts of offensive firepower, physical guys like Chris Neil and Laraque, up and down the ice for seven games. Who wins Game 7? Gotta give it to the guys who have Roberts and Recchi. Prediction: Pittsburgh in seven.

The West, for fun

Detroit over Calgary in 7

Anaheim over Minnesota in 6

Vancouver over Dallas in 5

San Jose over Nashville in 7

2nd round:

Buffalo over NYR in 6

Pittsburgh over NJ in 6

Detroit over San Jose in 6

Anaheim over Vancouver in 7

3rd round

Buffalo over Pittsburgh in 7

Detroit over Anaheim in 6

STANLEY CUP

Buffalo over Detroit in 5

Edited April 8, 2007 by Triumph

[Elias 2662]

Brodeur's record is spotty? Please....if the Devils lose it won't be his fault.

[Triumph]

Brodeur's record is spotty? Please....if the Devils lose it won't be his fault.

[brylin18]

the pens are certainly a good team, but i dont think they'd beat NJ in a 7 game series.

[Elias 2662]

yeah, get back to me when his playoff OT % gets over 50%.

if the Devils lose, it might be his fault. He certainly didn't do the Devils any favors in Game 3 against Carolina last year.

[point]

Some gutsy calls there , Tri. I don't think Roberts and Laraque tip the balance that much in Pitts favor though.

[Sickman]

yeah, get back to me when his playoff OT % gets over 50%.

if the Devils lose, it might be his fault. He certainly didn't do the Devils any favors in Game 3 against Carolina last year.

Edited April 8, 2007 by SickMan

[Triumph]

I didn't mean to get into a Brodeur debate here - he's clearly had some stellar series. My problem is that he hasn't often been unequivocally the difference between a win and a loss in a series - he's going to be asked to do that this year. He could've easily won a Conn Smythe in 2003.

As for the EGG line, they just don't seem interested in being great. Elias appears content to struggle.

[Elias 2662]

I really could see Nashville doing well. They're in the same position as last year playing the Sharks in the first round. However, this isn't the same Sharks carrying all the momentum while the Preds reeled from the loss of their starting goalie. Nashville could have easily gotten the #1 seed and I could see them making it to the WCF.

[Sickman]

As for the EGG line, they just don't seem interested in being great. Elias appears content to struggle.

[Motorcity Devil]

I agree with most of your picks, with a couple exceptions:

Minnesota will beat the Ducks... The Wild are on fire, and they play a play-off style all year. The Ducks have been up and down, I just don't see them coming out on top in a 7 game series.

I also think that Vancouver will come out of the West. Luongo is the real deal, they have great special teams, and a top 5 coach. If they survive Dallas, they are my pick in the West. Detroit is a paper tiger - tons of injuries (or guys just coming off injuries), and Hasek is just plain washed up.

As far as the East goes, I think NJD have what it takes to beat Pittsburgh in the second round. If they get there. Fleury has never played in the play-offs, and the Pens are still only 1.5 lines deep.

Buffalo and NJ in the conference finals is a good bet, but I think our Devils will come up short. Buffalo beats Vancouver in 6?

[sundstrom]

As for the EGG line, they just don't seem interested in being great. Elias appears content to struggle.

[SueNJ97]

this will be what determines this series. frankly, i expect bolts in 5 because I can't see the devils scoring more than 2 non empty net goals in any game. for the tb goaltending to prove to be a minus for them, the devils will have to get chances and i don't expect them.

[Triumph]

the pens are certainly a good team, but i dont think they'd beat NJ in a 7 game series.

[NJDevs4978]

5?! I could see the Devils losing in six but 5's a bit of a stretch for Tampa.

Admittedly, during the third period today I was thinking how this is the least confident I've been in a Devils team going to the playoffs in the post-Lemaire era, other than maybe '04 when there were issues with Stevens and the Devils looked drained down the stretch.

I'll pick Devils in 6, but I'm very, very, very worried about that. It's time for Gionta to stay healthy, Gomez to man up and Elias to embrace being great.

I also will say Sabres in 6 - the Isles fans will give them a Ranger-like sendoff when they lose at home to end their season

Rangers in 5, although one caveat - Atlanta does usually play them well and they can dirty it up with Avery with some of their goons. Still I think Atlanta's vastly underachieved at times this year with the talent they have while the Rangers are in a major groove.

Ottawa in 7, there might be more goals scored in two games than the Devils can muster in a whole series

BTW I could have sworn Lehtonen was hurt at that point last year and Nittymaki was playing in the Gold Medal game. I know it wasn't Kiprusoff cause he skipped the Olympics but I thought it was Nittymaki.

Edited April 9, 2007 by Hasan4978

[SatansDevils]

Buffalo in 5

New Jersey in 5 or 6 (still not sure)

Atlanta in 6

Ottawa in 7

[Derek21]

This should definitely be an interesting year - there's already one great matchup in the first round, and other than Buffalo vs. No Goalie, these could all easily go seven games.

No disrespect but how can you say that about Dubielewicz when all he's done is save his team's season? If he had been the Isles backup instead of Garth Snow's best friend, they'd probably have more points.

Dubielewicz has played extremely well for the Islanders. If his team loses to Buffalo in an expected five games, it will probably be because of the Sabres explosive scoring exploiting the Isles suspect D.

My initial picks which could still change after I break it down:

Sabres in 5

Lightning in 6

Thrashers in 6

Penguins in 7

Hasan is right. I was going to post the same thing. Niittymaki was in net for Finland because Kiprusoff didn't play and Lehtonen went down.

Minny has gotten superb goaltending from Nik Backstrom. That series might be more difficult for the Ducks than it looks. They also aren't just all about Gaborik as Parrish, Koivu, Bouchard, Demitra and Rolston can all finish. I like Anaheim because of their blueline in 6.

If Nashville drew someone else, I might like them. But San Jose is the wrong match-up. It will be a great series.

Edited April 9, 2007 by Derek21

[Chimaira_Devil_#9]

Dubielewicz has played extremely well for the Islanders.

[Triumph]

The Buffalo vs. No Goalie line was actually written before today's game - so yeah, a little premature. I'm still not confident Dubielewicz will hold up - he didn't look good today, and the Devils tried so hard to make him look good.

You are right about Niitymaki - I knew something was wrong with that. Good catch. Ah well.

sundstrom - I understand your lack of confidence - I think Sue might be right with her prediction as well, but this Devils' team has a lot of tenacity - getting in a 2-0 series hole isn't insurmountable for them, and may actually be good for them. I don't know why they don't forecheck - but that's for Lou to determine.

[NJDevs4978]

Dublewicz is the reason the Isles made the playoffs down the stretch - but today let's be honest he didn't have to make one tough save until the shootout That's why it's immaterial to me who the other goalie is, if the Devils aren't going to get pressure and put people in front of the net then they can't score on anyone.

The West series are almost impossible to predict, since all the teams are so frigging close to each other. I don't buy the Detroit upset this year, this isn't your older brother's Calgary team. They have TEN road wins all year. Probably at least a few of them over lousy teams. With Hasek I think Detroit 'finally' gets through a first round at least. I'd love to see a Minnesota upset of Anaheim but doubt it, though Giguere could start the series rusty from not having played the last couple of games.

The only upset in Nashville-SJ is if the series doesn't go 7 games. That series'll be interesting if nothing else to see how the goaltending situations play out. Nabokov seems to be entrenched as the starter again in SJ and Vokoun's gotten most of the workload since the All-Star break but hasn't been his old dominant self. Vancouver-Dallas, I hope for Turco's sake he doesn't blow up, but maybe this year they surprise now that nobody expects anything from them. It'll be tough against Luongo though.

Edited April 9, 2007 by Hasan4978

[KOOL-AID]

the pens are certainly a good team, but i dont think they'd beat NJ in a 7 game series.

[NJDevs4978]

Interesting fact. - Did you know this could be one of the most lopsided playoff matchups of all time? I guess that's not a fact.

[Jas0nMacIsaac]

Buffalo/Islander:

Forwards - Buffalo edge

Defense - Even

Goaltending - Islanders if Dipietro comes back

Coach - Islanders

PP/PK - Buffalo

Prediction - Sweep for Buffalo if Dipietro doesn't play, if he comes back I think Islanders give Buffalo a scare and lose in 7.

New Jersey/Tampa Bay

Forwards - Tampa Bay

Defense - New Jersey

Goaltending - New Jersey

Coaching - Tampa Bay

PP/PK - Even

Prediction - I think NJ will win but Lecavalier and St Louis will cause some problems, NJ wins in a hard fought 6 games.

Atlanta/New YorkR

Forwards-Atlanta

Defense-New YorkR

Goaltending-New YorkR

Coaching-New YorkR

PP/PK-New YorkR

Prediction - Clean sweep for New York, I really don't like Atlanta or their team setup, Kovalchuk will not have fun playing against Avery and Shanny.

Ottawa/Pittsburgh

Forwards-Even

Defense-Ottawa

Goaltending-Ottawa

Coaching-Pittsburgh

PP/PK-Even

Prediction - I have seen Marc Andre Fleury crack in the post season in person. Ottawa has more depth, better depth, more experience and will win in 6 games.

[LOTCB]

Man Triumph I hope you are right

Good stuff as always Tri

['7']

Sabres in 6

Devils in 6, I think Tampa lacks hunger, depth, and goaltending. Their stars will get them through two games, but the Devils will grind them to dust in the end.

Penguins in 7, this will be a fun series, high scoring end to end action. But I think this will be as far as Pittsburgh goes this year. Next round they'll suffer a crushing defeat and will have to learn from it. All great players do.

Rangers in 6, I can see just about every game being decided by one goal.