Zubie#8 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 The hit that put Clowe out for the year was not a serious one. I could see him attempting one more comeback but I don't think it will be successful. We haven't even gotten word of him skating, or working out off the ice - he's traveled with the team so he's healthy enough to do that, but I'm not sure he wants to risk one more concussion. This doesn't seem true - he was real bad in his 13 healthy games this year. LTIR does still hurt the team - you don't bank cap space when a player is on it - and it messes with the summer cap as well. Maybe not this season but last season I felt like he played real well when he had that healthy stretch. I understand the summer cap situation as well but as of now I don't think he is a hinderence since we have a good amount of cap space. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmann422 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 (edited) But a forward that is drafted number 6 overall is someone you can reasonably predict to be a 20-25 goal scorer and would be doing so for a relatively extended period of time I don't want to seem argumentative or repetitive, but I think you are very wrong on this. I had a few minutes and took a look at forwards drafted around where we'll pick since 2000. There were 30 total forwards drafted since then in spots 6, 7 and 8 overall. Of those 30 forwards, only 14 have EVER scored 20 goals in a season. The average goals scored per season among those 30 players is 11. Granted it's early for guys like Lindholm and Scheifele, who bring the average down but look to be top 6 players and could have some 20 goal season in them yet. But then I took out the first 2 NHL seasons each of those guys played, considering they were still adjusting to the NHL and that could be bringing the average down, and even then, only 5 guys drafted at 6,7 or 8 overall averaged at least 20 goals a season in their career- Hartnell, Michalek, Voracek, Skinner and Monahan. I know this was a crude analysis, but I'll be generous and confidently say that history shows we have, at best, about a 20% chance of drafting a consistent 20 goal scorer with this pick. I don't think Kessel is necessarily the answer to our problems- and I would not add anything significant to an offer- but if we move the pick for him it would not be as bad as some have made it out to be. Edit: if someone knows how to post tables from excel I'd be happy to post the numbers... Edited April 9, 2015 by dmann422 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chimaira_Devil_#9 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 What center would the Devils put him with? Who knows. Do the Devils have a center in the organization that should play with Kessel? Not really. Do they have any young players who could become that center? No. Do they have any draft picks who could? Well, if they trade this year's, no, they don't. Is there anyone likely to be available on the free agent market who can? No. And on and on we go. This is what I was thinking. What is the point of having Cammy and Kessle if you don't have a tone to feed them the puck? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoekster316 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 I don't want to seem argumentative or repetitive, but I think you are very wrong on this. I had a few minutes and took a look at forwards drafted around where we'll pick since 2000. There were 30 total forwards drafted since then in spots 6, 7 and 8 overall. Of those 30 forwards, only 14 have EVER scored 20 goals in a season. The average goals scored per season among those 30 players is 11. Granted it's early for guys like Lindholm and Scheifele, who bring the average down but look to be top 6 players and could have some 20 goal season in them yet. But then I took out the first 2 NHL seasons each of those guys played, considering they were still adjusting to the NHL and that could be bringing the average down, and even then, only 5 guys drafted at 6,7 or 8 overall averaged at least 20 goals a season in their career- Hartnell, Michalek, Voracek, Skinner and Monahan. I know this was a crude analysis, but I'll be generous and confidently say that history shows we have, at best, about a 20% chance of drafting a consistent 20 goal scorer with this pick. I don't think Kessel is necessarily the answer to our problems- and I would not add anything significant to an offer- but if we move the pick for him it would not be as bad as some have made it out to be. Edit: if someone knows how to post tables from excel I'd be happy to post the numbers... Agreed in full. I definitely think that people tend to over-value first round draft picks. Lots of fans, myself included, were ticked off when Lou traded our 9th overall pick in 2013 for Schneider. But, after the dust settled and I had a chance to evaluate the situation, I realized he traded a gamble opportunity for a guaranteed #1 goalie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jagknife Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 (edited) Agreed in full. I definitely think that people tend to over-value first round draft picks. Lots of fans, myself included, were ticked off when Lou traded our 9th overall pick in 2013 for Schneider. But, after the dust settled and I had a chance to evaluate the situation, I realized he traded a gamble opportunity for a guaranteed #1 goalie. I was flying back from Costa Rica during the draft, we finally got TV service somewhere in the late rounds. When I saw we had traded our pick, I wasn't thrilled until I saw Monahan was gone by the time ours rolled around. I mean the only other player who I would take knowing now would probably be Marko Dano, but even there's no gaurantee he'd have been worth the trade-off of having Cory. Edited April 9, 2015 by jagknife Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 I don't want to seem argumentative or repetitive, but I think you are very wrong on this. I had a few minutes and took a look at forwards drafted around where we'll pick since 2000. There were 30 total forwards drafted since then in spots 6, 7 and 8 overall. Of those 30 forwards, only 14 have EVER scored 20 goals in a season. The average goals scored per season among those 30 players is 11. Granted it's early for guys like Lindholm and Scheifele, who bring the average down but look to be top 6 players and could have some 20 goal season in them yet. But then I took out the first 2 NHL seasons each of those guys played, considering they were still adjusting to the NHL and that could be bringing the average down, and even then, only 5 guys drafted at 6,7 or 8 overall averaged at least 20 goals a season in their career- Hartnell, Michalek, Voracek, Skinner and Monahan. I know this was a crude analysis, but I'll be generous and confidently say that history shows we have, at best, about a 20% chance of drafting a consistent 20 goal scorer with this pick. I don't think Kessel is necessarily the answer to our problems- and I would not add anything significant to an offer- but if we move the pick for him it would not be as bad as some have made it out to be. Edit: if someone knows how to post tables from excel I'd be happy to post the numbers... First off, I'm looking at goals purely to simplify things. But in any event, the numbers you have put out there do support the idea that there is a reasonable chance at getting a forward who will be a 20 goal scorer, and fairly soon at that. Trading this pick for Kessel is a bad idea though because Kessel at age 28 does not move the needle far enough, especially since he's at that age where players tend to decline. The Devils are not a good or deep enough team to go giving up a high draft pick for a player like that. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmann422 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Agreed in full. I definitely think that people tend to over-value first round draft picks. Lots of fans, myself included, were ticked off when Lou traded our 9th overall pick in 2013 for Schneider. But, after the dust settled and I had a chance to evaluate the situation, I realized he traded a gamble opportunity for a guaranteed #1 goalie. Yes, the point is that the asset, as the #6 pick, is probably more valuable in a trade now that it will be in 2-3 years after it turns into a prospect. First off, I'm looking at goals purely to simplify things. But in any event, the numbers you have put out there do support the idea that there is a reasonable chance at getting a forward who will be a 20 goal scorer, and fairly soon at that. Trading this pick for Kessel is a bad idea though because Kessel at age 28 does not move the needle far enough, especially since he's at that age where players tend to decline. The Devils are not a good or deep enough team to go giving up a high draft pick for a player like that. Yeah I know we're only looking at this in very simple terms, I'm not passionate or adamant enough to do any more than that haha. But we can agree to disagree. I would bet a good amount that in 15 years, If you give me the ten forwards taken in this draft after the top 4 (Mcdavid,Eichel, Srome,Marner), no more than 3 of those ten will become legitimate top line players- I'm talking consistent 20 goal scorers or 65 point players. Also I'd much rather target a center in a trade than Kessel. If we could package something including this pick for someone like Couture, it would be a great deal imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SterioDesign Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 (edited) I don't want to seem argumentative or repetitive, but I think you are very wrong on this. I had a few minutes and took a look at forwards drafted around where we'll pick since 2000. There were 30 total forwards drafted since then in spots 6, 7 and 8 overall. Of those 30 forwards, only 14 have EVER scored 20 goals in a season. The average goals scored per season among those 30 players is 11. Granted it's early for guys like Lindholm and Scheifele, who bring the average down but look to be top 6 players and could have some 20 goal season in them yet. But then I took out the first 2 NHL seasons each of those guys played, considering they were still adjusting to the NHL and that could be bringing the average down, and even then, only 5 guys drafted at 6,7 or 8 overall averaged at least 20 goals a season in their career- Hartnell, Michalek, Voracek, Skinner and Monahan. I know this was a crude analysis, but I'll be generous and confidently say that history shows we have, at best, about a 20% chance of drafting a consistent 20 goal scorer with this pick. I don't think Kessel is necessarily the answer to our problems- and I would not add anything significant to an offer- but if we move the pick for him it would not be as bad as some have made it out to be. Edit: if someone knows how to post tables from excel I'd be happy to post the numbers... Thing is though its all about drafting. And its really specific about the draft position which can change from year to year depending on the depth. All of those years, im sure there's a guy who was picked later in the draft that ended up scoring 20+ goals no problem. Of course that's easy to say now but being able to pick at that spot gives you a lot more flexibility and possibilities. Just in 2003... im sure almost over 50% of the forwards of that year had many 20 goals seasons. And that was one year while another year it was sh!t. if you look randomly in 2005 lets say... Brassard, Okposo and Mueller were the picks. Brassard and Mueller were so and so... but they had the opportunity to pick Claude Giroux so thats what i mean when i say the specific pick you have may go either way but you still had the chance on a lot more players than if you'd pick 25th Edited April 9, 2015 by SterioDesign Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarpathianForest Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 The draft is like a box of chocolate. You never know what you're going to get. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmann422 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Thing is though its all about drafting. And its really specific about the draft position which can change from year to year depending on the depth. All of those years, im sure there's a guy who was picked later in the draft that ended up scoring 20+ goals no problem. Of course that's easy to say now but being able to pick at that spot gives you a lot more flexibility and possibilities. Just in 2003... im sure almost over 50% of the forwards of that year had many 20 goals seasons. And that was one year while another year it was sh!t. if you look randomly in 2005 lets say... Brassard, Okposo and Mueller were the picks. Brassard and Mueller were so and so... but they had the opportunity to pick Claude Giroux so thats what i mean when i say the specific pick you have may go either way but you still had the chance on a lot more players than if you'd pick 25th We are in total agreement on this... What you have shown is that after the top 3-4 picks, there isn't much of a noticeable difference between a 6th overall pick and 16th overall- the odds of getting a top line player are just about the same, and I do not have much confidence in Lou and Conte picking the next Claude Giroux over the next Derick Brassard- this is coming from as big a Lou supporter as there is. You mention the 2003 draft, regarded as one of the best in history- the success rate of forwards drafted in the first round in 2003 is 50%- half of the forwards taken in the first round in the best draft of all time wound up being top 6 players. It is very, very unlikely that this draft winds up being as strong as 2003, so I hold strong at my 20% odds. Bottom line is this 6th pick is the most valuable asset we've had in a long time (excluding Larsson and Severson, because nobody wants to trade them), we need to make it count, either with our pick or via trade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SterioDesign Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 For those suggesting to sign st-louis... He asked to leave the team he played for almost all his career, leaving one of the best player in the league there, left a place who gave him everything, where he won a cup, asked to get traded to NYR and no other teams. Rangers and thats it. Made it to the cup finals first year then won the president trophy and god knows whats next. Why in the world would he then decide to sign with a terrible Devils team the next summer ? almost guaranteed not to make the playoffs or at least its fair to assume, absolutely no shot at the cup, sh!t players to play with, being a rival to the one team he wanted to go to and had success there... honestly, how realistic would that be? we'd have to throw him the biggest contract in the world in order for him to even consider it without laughing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colorado Rockies 1976 Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 (edited) Not so sure about that SD. St. Louis is going to be 40 and his SOG totals are down pretty significantly (though part of that is due to less TOI per game). He may not have much choice. Contenders might want to see if he has much left before considering bringing him in, which means he may have to go to a non-playoff/fringe playoff-team that, in effect, assumes the risk of offering him a deal, hoping that either way, he plays well enough to help them get into the playoffs or get something back later. If he's looking good for a team that's not looking good for a playoff berth, a contender can then swoop in at or before the deadline and acquire him then. But just due to age alone, St. Louis may not have much bargaining power...if he wants to keep playing, he may have to take a one-year deal on a less-than-ideal team. Edited April 10, 2015 by Colorado Rockies 1976 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SterioDesign Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 Not so sure about that SD. St. Louis is going to be 40 and his SOG totals are down pretty significantly (though part of that is due to less TOI per game). He may not have much choice. Contenders might want to see if he has much left before considering bringing him in, which means he may have to go to a non-playoff/fringe playoff-team that, in effect, assumes the risk of offering him a deal, hoping that either way, he plays well enough to help them get into the playoffs or get something back later. If he's looking good for a team that's not looking good for a playoff berth, a contender can then swoop in at or before the deadline and acquire him then. But just due to age alone, St. Louis may not have much bargaining power...if he wants to keep playing, he may have to take a one-year deal on a less-than-ideal team. Sure but im sure he'll still have way better options than NJ. The only thing i could think of that could work for us is that he already lives around here and wouldnt want to move again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colorado Rockies 1976 Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 I'm not saying it will be here (more that it may not be a great situation on paper for him initially)...I would probably pass on him myself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SterioDesign Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 interesting for a center though knowing he could play a top line for sure... seeing that our top center cant even crack 25 pts anymore... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redruM Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 No interest in St Louis.. he's on the downside of his career and getting very close to the bottom, thats not how you rebuild... I know Kessel is a head case, but he has LOADS of talent, he would not be my 1st choice, but he might be the best deal we can make... Frolik would be a nice addition, and I'd love to get JVR Not sure what clubs are up against the Cap that have players that need to be resigned, but that might offer some trades possibilities as well... The only thing I know for sure is that I DONOT trust that LL can be the 1 in charge of the rebuild, Ithink the game has passed him by. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zubie#8 Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 Sigh, if you can you sign St. Louis to a one year deal, he'd instantly be our best RW and you trade him at the deadline ala Jagr for assets. That would help the rebuild. No risk whatsoever if he isn't good anymore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmann422 Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 No interest in St Louis.. he's on the downside of his career and getting very close to the bottom, thats not how you rebuild... I know Kessel is a head case, but he has LOADS of talent, he would not be my 1st choice, but he might be the best deal we can make... Frolik would be a nice addition, and I'd love to get JVR Not sure what clubs are up against the Cap that have players that need to be resigned, but that might offer some trades possibilities as well... The only thing I know for sure is that I DONOT trust that LL can be the 1 in charge of the rebuild, Ithink the game has passed him by. I don't think the game has "passed him by." I think it's more of a case where he is so adamant about trying to compete every year that he doesn't allow himself the option of retooling or ditching a year or two to focus on building for the future. That's why we see more band aids like Ryder and Jagr and less trading of assets for picks and prospects. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redruM Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 no playoffs 4 of the last 5 years tells me theleague has passed him by, 36 year old forwards who cannot skate donot get it done anymore, and he clearly over valued Ryder Brunner & Clowe... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmann422 Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 no playoffs 4 of the last 5 years tells me theleague has passed him by, 36 year old forwards who cannot skate donot get it done anymore, and he clearly over valued Ryder Brunner & Clowe... define "passed him by." It sounds like you think he does not know what it takes to win, yet you do not mention a cup finals appearance wedged between these years, so obviously he does knows what it takes, he just has had setbacks and limitations on building a winner.Ryder and Brunner were both 2 year deals and not big money. Clowe was a big mistake but we put him in IR and it doesn't hurt us much cap wise. In this same time he's brought in Schneider and built a great young defense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redruM Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 This is how I define passed him by.. Since the lock out in 04-05 the NHL has become a much faster game, a game of young legs.. yet we have consistently gotten older and slower ( and this year is the culmination of all of that) Yes there was a great run in 11-12 where PDB caught lightning in a bottle ( Kivy & Parise were awesome), Marty was his great self and the DEVS 4th line was ridiculous good, then we lost our 2 stars, which is impossible for LL to plan for, but he has not IMHO made moves to fix the problem, we continue to get older & slower, this year we ar full year older than any other team and out forwards at the begining of the year were the ODLEST by 2 years, and we had something liekthe highest paid fowards in the league WITH OUT Kovy;s contract.. that is LL no one else!! Great organizations know when its time to move on, otherwise they get caught in a constant battle of mediocrity, which is where we seem to be stuck right now... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Man Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 http://stats.nhlnumbers.com/teams?year=2016 Essentially you can narrow down the trade targets by looking at next year's cap commitments (ignore the "Players signed" column, it counts players in the minors). LA makes the most sense, as they'll still have 5 forwards with a cap hit over $6 million. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Man Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 Another thought...if I'm Lou, I'm calling Columbus to inquire about Hartnell. He's a much needed RW, still only 33, reasonable contract, still put up almost 60 points this year. They have a lot of young forwards that may be ready to make the leap to the NHL, but not many defensemen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redruM Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 (edited) I know this is probably unrealisitc, but a team like LA, that has most of its stars locked up for the next 3 or 4 years, and very little cap space, any chacne they trade the 1 star player coming into the last year ofhis contract?? that player being Kopitar?? I doubt it would happen, but he could demand a raise from $7mil to $9 or 10 Mil... that would really strap them... And what about Chic?? Maybe Versteeg Bickell or Sharp? Isles have alot of players coming up pn the last year of a contract as well... Edited April 10, 2015 by redruM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Onddeck Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 Another thought...if I'm Lou, I'm calling Columbus to inquire about Hartnell. He's a much needed RW, still only 33, reasonable contract, still put up almost 60 points this year. They have a lot of young forwards that may be ready to make the leap to the NHL, but not many defensemen. NOOOOOO. We cannot be getting slower. I know its hard to believe that a player could actually make this Devils team any slower, but its possible and that player is Hartnell. He cannot skate. literally one of the worst skaters i know of Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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