Mike Brown Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 GOALIES WITH 900 MINUTES OR MORE (47 Goalies) SV% Schneider: 27th Kinkaid: 43rd dSV% Schneider: 13th Kinkaid: 44th LDSV% Schneider: 29th Kinkaid: 25th MDSV% Schneider: 17th Kinkaid: 45th HDSV% Schneider: 13th Kinkaid: 32nd The weird thing is, you'd think I was killing the goalies. I'm not. I have as much confidence in this tandem as in years past. They just haven't gotten it done this year. This is a fact. Another fact is that they have an ES SV% of .907 which is 21st in the league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfitz804 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 16 minutes ago, Mike Brown said: GOALIES WITH 900 MINUTES OR MORE (47 Goalies) SV% Schneider: 27th Kinkaid: 43rd dSV% Schneider: 13th Kinkaid: 44th LDSV% Schneider: 29th Kinkaid: 25th MDSV% Schneider: 17th Kinkaid: 45th HDSV% Schneider: 13th Kinkaid: 32nd The weird thing is, you'd think I was killing the goalies. I'm not. I have as much confidence in this tandem as in years past. They just haven't gotten it done this year. This is a fact. Another fact is that they have an ES SV% of .907 which is 21st in the league. This is fancy stat talk for "Kinkaid sucks". 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titans04 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 One thing for sure nothing there says Cory is top 10 yet alone top 7. I'm guessing that's a different set of stats? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmann422 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 (edited) I know next to nothing about advanced stats but it always seemed to me like mike brown was the type of guy to debate the professor on his second day of intro to philosophy class, if you know what I mean. There is no way this team is one of the best in the league defensively. We are better than expected but there is plenty room of improvement and bringing in anither reliable and experienced blue liner like we did with vatanen. But I give mike credit he can be entertaining. Edited February 8, 2018 by dmann422 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfitz804 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 8 minutes ago, dmann422 said: I know next to nothing about advanced stats but it always seemed to me like mike brown was the type of guy to debate the professor on his second day of intro to philosophy class, if you know what I mean. I actually did that and had to drop the class because I figured it would be reflected in my grade. Not so much debated him as I belittled his entire chosen field. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Posted February 8, 2018 Author Share Posted February 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, mfitz804 said: I actually did that and had to drop the class because I figured it would be reflected in my grade. Not so much debated him as I belittled his entire chosen field. Ahh, how I wish I could take a university gender studies class. Sane employers would take getting an F in it as a sign of superior intelligence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Posted February 8, 2018 Author Share Posted February 8, 2018 So I guess the Fourth Period isn’t the most reliable outlet in the world, but this article says that we’re among a couple of teams that have been linked to OEL. https://www.thefourthperiod.com/feb-2018/ekman-larsson-interest-rising-coyotes-keeping-cards-close-to-vest/ I’ve been saying that I think if Ray is going to do something it should be something big for OEL or Karlsson. Did not realize however that OEL is left handed, which makes trading Severson for him a bit tougher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Brown Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 3 hours ago, mfitz804 said: This is fancy stat talk for "Kinkaid sucks". He's been bad this year for sure. However he's still a quality backup. This is just a down year for him. Schneider hasn't been bad, but he hasn't been great either. He's definitely capable of being better, and we need him to be. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfitz804 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Mike Brown said: He's been bad this year for sure. However he's still a quality backup. This is just a down year for him. Schneider hasn't been bad, but he hasn't been great either. He's definitely capable of being better, and we need him to be. I rarely agree with your posts. I agree with this one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Triumph Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 1 hour ago, dmann422 said: I know next to nothing about advanced stats but it always seemed to me like mike brown was the type of guy to debate the professor on his second day of intro to philosophy class, if you know what I mean. There is no way this team is one of the best in the league defensively. We are better than expected but there is plenty room of improvement and bringing in anither reliable and experienced blue liner like we did with vatanen. But I give mike credit he can be entertaining. Mike is correct to point out that the Devils' defense has improved a ton from the beginning of the season when the team was awful. I don't know that it's one of the best in the league, but they are being pretty stingy when it comes to shots allowed since then. Everyone here enjoys dunking on him because he can't respond properly, and he's not quite fluent in what he's trying to talk about, but the defense became good right when the goaltending started to sag. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EdgeControl Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 I'd like to know what % of 5v5 goals are "screen" affected.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Brown Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 1 hour ago, mfitz804 said: I rarely agree with your posts. I agree with this one. Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marshall Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 (edited) 10 hours ago, Mike Brown said: Yes I do. Goalie play is taken into account for expected goals against depending on the model you use. Corsica's, which I cited, doesn't. It's the only public hockey model now that DTMAH's is gone and that didn't model goalies but shooters. I can't speak for soccer/football. Moneypuck has an xG model but they don't model down to separate components. A piece of advice would be to swap your HD/MD/LD for xG unless you wanna look at raw numbers to see roughly where the distribution has changed. Arbitrary binning is far inferior to a good xG model and depending on the bins teams look very different. As an aside, NJ rank third in the East, 1st in the metro, since the Vatanen trade in xG (and IIRC 5th in Corsi%). So the team is playing well at 5v5, just need some saves. Edited February 8, 2018 by Marshall 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Posted February 8, 2018 Author Share Posted February 8, 2018 So apparently the Lighting and Rags are talking about McDonough. Here's a question, is McDonogh that much more valuable than Vatanen? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Triumph Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 25 minutes ago, Daniel said: So apparently the Lighting and Rags are talking about McDonough. Here's a question, is McDonogh that much more valuable than Vatanen? Yes. McDonagh's been stuck next to Girardi for forever but has put up decent numbers. He's a top pairing defenseman, I didn't think before Vatanen got here that he was, he was a decent 2nd pair guy, but he is playing pretty well. I think to get McDonagh you need a 1st, 2nd, and prospect. There just doesn't seem like there's overwhelming call to deal him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Posted February 8, 2018 Author Share Posted February 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Triumph said: Yes. McDonagh's been stuck next to Girardi for forever but has put up decent numbers. He's a top pairing defenseman, I didn't think before Vatanen got here that he was, he was a decent 2nd pair guy, but he is playing pretty well. I think to get McDonagh you need a 1st, 2nd, and prospect. There just doesn't seem like there's overwhelming call to deal him. Yeah, my question was really based on how well Vatanen has been playing since he got here, which is based a lot on the eye test. To me, he seems to have been really good, but I guess McDonagh's reputation is much better. Still, I get the sense that teams are starting to come to the conclusion that pretty much no single player is really going to increase your chances of winning the Cup that significantly, especially if we're talking about a team that's already really good like Tampa. While you obviously want as many good players as you can get, no one is really going empty out their farm system for someone, unless we're talking about a guy like Karlsson. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marshall Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 30 minutes ago, Daniel said: Still, I get the sense that teams are starting to come to the conclusion that pretty much no single player is really going to increase your chances of winning the Cup that significantly, especially if we're talking about a team that's already really good like Tampa. While you obviously want as many good players as you can get, no one is really going empty out their farm system for someone, unless we're talking about a guy like Karlsson. No, but with McDonagh you get two kicks at it, this and next year. That's a significant thing for a team like Tampa that are in the middle of their window. Going by what prospect guys say, their farm is pretty stacked and they have all their picks in the next three drafts. So if there ever was a team that could and should spend 2-4 assets on McDonagh, it's them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Posted February 8, 2018 Author Share Posted February 8, 2018 13 minutes ago, Marshall said: No, but with McDonagh you get two kicks at it, this and next year. That's a significant thing for a team like Tampa that are in the middle of their window. Going by what prospect guys say, their farm is pretty stacked and they have all their picks in the next three drafts. So if there ever was a team that could and should spend 2-4 assets on McDonagh, it's them. I guess I'm going on what Ranger fans seem to think they're going to get, which is like two firsts, Foote and Point. That seems like a lot. It's also not a stretch to say that McDonagh would be Tampa's third best defenseman behind Hedman and Sergachev. Then you add to it all the fact that there don't seem to be that many teams in the mix and the longer the Rangers wait, the more his value declines. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marshall Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Daniel said: I guess I'm going on what Ranger fans seem to think they're going to get, which is like two firsts, Foote and Point. That seems like a lot. It's also not a stretch to say that McDonagh would be Tampa's third best defenseman behind Hedman and Sergachev. Then you add to it all the fact that there don't seem to be that many teams in the mix and the longer the Rangers wait, the more his value declines. Well, that certainly sounds high. But there's value in McDonagh's contract (4.7 AAV) and IF NYR would eat half (which has been reported) then that is immensely helpful for Tampa this year and next. And I agree, he'd be the third best...behind Hedman and Strålman. But next year, might very well be fourth but since we're talking about stacking a line-up, that's kinda the point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Posted February 8, 2018 Author Share Posted February 8, 2018 13 minutes ago, Marshall said: Well, that certainly sounds high. But there's value in McDonagh's contract (4.7 AAV) and IF NYR would eat half (which has been reported) then that is immensely helpful for Tampa this year and next. And I agree, he'd be the third best...behind Hedman and Strålman. But next year, might very well be fourth but since we're talking about stacking a line-up, that's kinda the point. What he's getting paid is sort of besides the point, so long as we're not talking about a Toews or Kane type AAV. The Rangers would almost certainly take salary back or retain to make the deal work with whoever he gets dealt to, as I'm sure would be the case with any other team that's looking to deal a defenseman with only one more year to go that can live without the cap space. 2 minutes ago, Martyisth3b3st said: Kruger also hit waivers. Signed this season and next for 3mm/y. We're nowhere near a cap team, and he'd be a massive improvement over Hayes/Stafford. Also allows us to flip stafford for a 3rd round pick, which some stupid team will probably do. Thoughts? One goal and six points in 48 games. Yikes, no thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crisis Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 15 hours ago, Triumph said: Mike is correct to point out that the Devils' defense has improved a ton from the beginning of the season when the team was awful. I don't know that it's one of the best in the league, but they are being pretty stingy when it comes to shots allowed since then. Everyone here enjoys dunking on him because he can't respond properly, and he's not quite fluent in what he's trying to talk about, but the defense became good right when the goaltending started to sag. Admittedly not an adv stats guy, but do you think there could be some correlation between these two events? Perhaps playing a different defensive scheme with the personnel that came back that exposes the goaltending more? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Posted February 8, 2018 Author Share Posted February 8, 2018 (edited) Edited February 8, 2018 by Daniel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SterioDesign Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 per russo Lucia scored 17 goals and 41 points in 93 games with Iowa. Has not made his NHL debut yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nicomo Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 (edited) there’s not exactly a lot coming in the pipeline on defense. Not crazy about this move. Didn’t realize Lööv was already 25 though... Edited February 8, 2018 by Nicomo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SterioDesign Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Nicomo said: WTF, there’s not exactly a lot coming in the pipeline on defense. Not crazy about this move. well once we have both Carlson and Karlsson it's gonna push down a few guys so.... you know.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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