Ray finally speaks

[mfitz804]

8 minutes ago, NJDfan1711 said:

It doesn't seem like it at the moment, but we are/should be trending upward.  We have a young-ish core, plenty of money, and a half-talented roster, one that only figures to improve since some of our dead weight will soon be put out to pasture.  The team has struggled for a few seasons now and we're finally emerging out of some of the troubles that we were stuck in (i.e. the post-Lou era when he left us with some things that needed fixing).  

Because we are rebuilding the team with youth like Butcher, Bratt, Nico, etc. That's what you're supposed to do. Those guys weren't here a little over a year ago. The Blues are starting now, so they are like a year and a couple months behind us. 

To take the progress we've made and ship it out for one veteran player might make us better in the interim, but the future would still be bleak. That's why nobody wants to trade out 1st this year, because we want to grab another great prospect with hopefully a top 5 pick ("hopefully" if we continue to suck; I don't favor tanking for it). 

 

Edited December 13, 2018 by mfitz804

[NJDfan1711]

1 minute ago, mfitz804 said:

Because we are rebuilding the team with youth like Butcher, Bratt, Nico, etc. That's what you're supposed to do. Those guys weren't here a little over a year ago. The Blues are starting now, so they are like a year and a couple months behind us. 

To take the progress we've made and ship it out for one veteran player might make us better in the interim, but the future would still be bleak. That's why nobody wants to trade out 1st this year, because we want to grab another great prospect with hopefully a top 5 pick ("hopefully" if we continue to suck; I don't favor tanking for it). 

 

That's my point, I think the Blues are considerably more than just a year and a few months behind us.  I think they're more like 3-4 years behind us.  I can't speak to their pipeline or how many draft picks they may have stockpiled, but when it comes to their roster they really don't have a whole lot of talent, and right now they're 9th in the league in total cap hit.  Steen and Bouwmeester are both on the downturn, and their goaltending situation is as bleak as ours. Their only real bright spots are Schenn, Schwartz and ROR.  

I can understand why people wouldn't want to give up our 1st next year.  It's a valuable asset, for sure.  But so is Tarasenko.  I guess I just think more highly of him than most people.  To each their own.  Someone else mentioned that the later round picks, like 3rd and higher, are often crapshoots, and that's true, but at the same time 1st and 2nd's aren't always gimmies either.  I mean, I like Nico a lot, and I think he'll have a fine career, but we got the 1st overall pick for the first time in our team's history, and it didn't yield us a generational talent.  I'm not even sure that Nico's a "franchise player" just yet either.  I hope he is and I think he could be, but the jury's out, and will be for quite a while because he's young.  The point is though that there's no guarantee our 1st next year will turn into something as good as Tarasenko is at the moment, especially if that pick is outside the top 5.

[Lateralous]

43 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

3 time All-Star and potentially the best player on the team (look at his last 5 seasons vs. Hall's last 5, not just last year) on a reasonable contract under team control for 5 years. 

The answer is, we cannot get him without giving up a lot. Nobody is taking Zacha, McLeod and a 2nd for anything, let alone a guy like Tarasenko. Maybe Butcher, Bratt and our 1st. Maybe they'd ask for Nico instead of the first, like I said previously. Two young guys who have shown they have potential plus a pick, or 3 young guys who have shown they have potential. They'll get that from someone.  

Understood, I referred to it as the dreaded offer because it's the kind of thing you would see on the HF Boards trade forum.   The real return would be too rich for the Devils IMO because it's going to take at least two of Bratt, Ty Smith and our upcoming high first, none of which I would want to part with given where were at in the rebuild.   

[NJDfan1711]

14 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

I wasn't really trying to start a debate, I didn't even say it definitively. But let's be clear,  he'd immediately be the 1st or 2nd best player on our team, and the disparity between 1st and 2nd would be very small. For purposes of the argument, it doesn't make a difference. He's still a stud forward under contract for 5 years, he's going to be very expensive for someone. The Blues aren't looking to trade him because of his cap hit, they are looking to trade him to rebuild. They will get back at least 3 quality pieces, and I mean guys who have a year or two and have proven something or high draft picks. Not Mike fvcking McLeod and Pavel Zacha. 

Of course, maybe #30 still has an in over there...

Yeah, I think you're absolutely right.  McLeod and Zacha was wishful thinking, which is why I figured we'd have to throw in another pick too, like a 2020 2nd or something.  But I'm sure it'd have to be something along the lines of Butcher and/or Bratt as others have mentioned.  It'd suck to part with them, mostly Bratt, but I think I'd still do it.  Some teams enter "rebuilds" and never come out of them.  We've arguably been in one for the last 5 years, and though I think we are on the upswing, if next year is the same as this year, we're suddenly looking at the better part of a decade where we've had just 1 winning season.  

[Lateralous]

21 minutes ago, NJDfan1711 said:

Yeah, those were the two that came to mind immediately, I was hoping there were a couple more that I wasn't remembering lol.  Maybe not.

Hall and Draisaitl were deadly together for about a half of a season in Edmonton and then I think they got split up.    

[NJDfan1711]

I guess the issue I have with the whole "don't sacrifice our assets because we're in the process of rebuilding!" schtick is that I think people embellish or put too much emphasis on the term rebuild.  I think people sometimes don't realize how short careers can be, and just how small of a window you have to work with as a GM when it comes to assembling a roster.  When you figure most players play from and are effective between the age of 22 and 38 (I think that's being generous, especially with the higher number), it's really hard to try to suck for a while and accumulate assets (draft picks, cap space, etc), while ignoring the aspect of potentially bringing in an established player at the sake of one of those assets, and hoping that your team will just magically get good through all of that sucking and stockpiling.  I mean, you can try your damnedest to time it right and have an entire team made up of guys that are only ages 22-27 and be young and then give yourself a solid 5-10 years of hopefully competing and contending for the Cup (even if that was possible, I wouldn't really suggest it because I think a good team has a good mix of veterans too), but even if that were the case, you're still always going to run into players who get older and have missed their prime during the time when you were sucking and waiting for your young players and draft picks to come to roost.  It's a cycle, and I'm not a huge proponent of "let's suck for 5 years and then everything we've done in that time will materialize and we'll just be good again".  

5 minutes ago, Lateralous said:

Hall and Draisaitl were deadly together for about a half of a season in Edmonton and then I think they got split up.    

Yeah, that's the other name I was thinking of.  👍

[mfitz804]

10 minutes ago, NJDfan1711 said:

That's my point, I think the Blues are considerably more than just a year and a few months behind us.  I think they're more like 3-4 years behind us. 

Then I am not sure if you were watching what we were doing before last year. 

 

7 minutes ago, NJDfan1711 said:

Yeah, I think you're absolutely right.  McLeod and Zacha was wishful thinking, which is why I figured we'd have to throw in another pick too, like a 2020 2nd or something.  

Oh yeah that'd get the job done lol. 

 

5 minutes ago, Kinkyisth3b3st said:

Dude, there's realistic and then there's "lol that would never happen" and then there's this. 

You can add 2 1st round picks to that deal and I'm still not sure it gets moving. 

I am pretty sure you are right. I think they'd start at Butcher, Bratt and Nico. Which is why I do not believe it will or should happen. 

[Nicomo]

Nico and Ty Smith should both be completely out of the question. You have to keep the best young pieces to build around. 

[Lateralous]

4 minutes ago, Kinkyisth3b3st said:

This is a dramatic overreaction to a quarter-of-a-season's worth of games, man. 

Erik Karlsson is still Erik fvcking Karlsson. 

I agree, if we can get Karlsson for nothing more than cap space, you do it.   He would be back to being the un-questioned #1 here and it slots the rest of our defense down a peg closer to their actual abilities, so it arguably improves the entire defense.    

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

37 minutes ago, Kinkyisth3b3st said:

This is a dramatic overreaction to a quarter-of-a-season's worth of games, man. 

Erik Karlsson is still Erik fvcking Karlsson. 

Says the King of Dramatic Overreactions, heh heh. 

Seriously though, is Erik Karlsson STILL really Erik Karlsson?  His goals are down for the second straight season.  He's also a -32 since the beginning of last year, and he'll be 29 years old going into next year.

I'm not saying he's a scrub at the moment, but he might very well be paid top dollar for waning peak and decline years.  Not sure how badly I want to sign up for that.  A contract like that definitely has albatross potential, and sooner than you think.  If you sign him for more than 6 years, I could see half of that contract or more being shaky. 

[NJDfan1711]

1 hour ago, mfitz804 said:

Then I am not sure if you were watching what we were doing before last year.  

Not sure what you mean.  We obviously sucked the year before last, and a few years before that too.  The Blues have not sucked at all in recent history.  Like I mentioned, aside from just missing the playoffs with 94 points last year, they had 5 seasons in a row of 100+ points.  Which is why I said they're 3-4 years behind us in terms of the rebuild process.  We've been in it for a couple years now, whereas they are barely starting it now.

[NJDevils1214]

4 minutes ago, Kinkyisth3b3st said:

Would you rather have Greene, Lovejoy and Johansson or Erik Fvcking Karlsson? Because those salaries are relatively commensurate.  

Can we officially change his name to "Erik Fvcking Karlsson" on the board? I kind of like the sound of it. Flows much better than "Sidney sh!t stain Crosby".

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

57 minutes ago, Kinkyisth3b3st said:

Nooooo CR please tell me you're not using +/- to judge a player, you and I both know you're better than that. 

People overexaggerate how "bad" a contract for a superstar is. People thought Ovechkin's contract would be an albatross and it would take a few first round picks attached to it to get out from under. Now it's one of the best in the game. 

The cap goes up. Players salaries go up. Their cap hit stays the same. 

We're not a cap team, we won't be a cap team for a very long time. If Erik Karlsson is available, you overpay the mother fvck for him to get him in a Devils sweater. We have 14 million in cap space. We'll have more next year. That's an asset that we are choosing not to use. 

Would you rather have Greene, Lovejoy and Johansson or Erik Fvcking Karlsson? Because those salaries are relatively commensurate.  

Definitely not using +/- as a sole measure, never would, but his is bad enough to give one pause. 

I get the bolded and understand it...if anything, I would consider Karlsson on a 3 or 4 year deal.  I really don't want to go 6 or 7, because I have the feeling his game isn't going to age well.  And unfortunately I get the impression that you think that the Devils will be getting the in-his-prime Karlsson...like I said, I think initially it's going to be 2 years (maybe 3 tops) of lesser prime years, followed by significant dropoff. 

I'll give you that not only will some contracts be coming off the books in the years to come, but there's very little that's on the books long term...only Schneider (a potential buyout candidate), Severson, and Wood are currently signed beyond 2021-22.  Of course the plan is some of the current Devils will be signed to solid raises by then, but I'll also give you that the Devils could absord a shaky Karlsson cap hit as much as anyone.  I just question whether he's truly the sure thing you're making him out to be. 

 

Edited December 14, 2018 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[NJDevils1214]

Just now, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Definitely not using +/- as a sole measure, never would, but his is bad enough to give one pause. 

I get the bolded and understand it...if anything, I would consider Karlsson on a 3 or 4 year deal.  I really don't want to go 6 or 7, because I have the feeling his game isn't going to age well.  And unfortunately I get the impression that you think that the Devils will be getting the in-his-prime Karlsson...like I said, I think initially it's going to be 2 years (maybe 3 tops) of lesser prime years, followed by significant dropoff. 

I'll give you that not only will some contracts will be coming off the books in the years to come, but there's very little that's on the books long term...only Schneider (a potential buyout candidate), Severson, and Wood are currently signed beyond 2021-22.  Of course the plan is some of the current Devils will be signed to solid raises by then, but I'll also give you that the Devils could absord a shaky Karlsson cap hit as much as anyone.  I just question whether he's truly the sure thing you're making him out to be. 

 

It is pretty much a given that some GM is going to offer him all the term and dollars he wants. No way 3-4 years will get him signed anywhere, though I completely understand your apprehension. 

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

11 minutes ago, NJDevils1214 said:

It is pretty much a given that some GM is going to offer him all the term and dollars he wants. No way 3-4 years will get him signed anywhere, though I completely understand your apprehension. 

Oh I agree, he's getting five absolute minimum, but probably 6+. 

[Devilsfan118]

Man I'm jumping into this conversation late, apologies if I've missed something but.. I want no part of Erik Karlsson any more.  He looks awful.. maybe having half of your ankle permanently removed or whatever is having an adverse affect on him..

The team that gives him a 7 year contract is going to regret it in year 2 imo.

[SterioDesign]

We're in a very complicated situation. 

We cannot expect or rely to get THAT much better from signing free agents because 

a) we're not an attractive destination so they may never come

b) we'd have to overpay for a dude and it might have a negative impact in a few years say he's not working out. But then we have to think that, even X player not producing super well... if he's younger and taking Greene TOI... then it might be positive in the end

c) one of Shero's good trick is to pry players out of team struggling with their cap, but it's constantly going up and up and it's giving flexibility to those teams

BUT at the same time, if we do nothing and that we're unlucky with trades or drafting, we simply cannot get much better. 

Obviously, everything is a gamble but we have to make sure to make good systematic and thought out decisions taking the future in consideration.

[devlman]

3 minutes ago, SterioDesign said:

We're in a very complicated situation. 

We cannot expect or rely to get THAT much better from signing free agents because 

a) we're not an attractive destination so they may never come

b) we'd have to overpay for a dude and it might have a negative impact in a few years say he's not working out. But then we have to think that, even X player not producing super well... if he's younger and taking Greene TOI... then it might be positive in the end

c) one of Shero's good trick is to pry players out of team struggling with their cap, but it's constantly going up and up and it's giving flexibility to those teams

BUT at the same time, if we do nothing and that we're unlucky with trades or drafting, we simply cannot get much better. 

Obviously, everything is a gamble but we have to make sure to make good systematic and thought out decisions taking the future in consideration.

Congratulations, you just described the challenge of 31 GM's in the NHL.

[SterioDesign]

4 minutes ago, devlman said:

Congratulations, you just described the challenge of 31 GM's in the NHL.

smartass, not all GM started with a stripped team like we did in 2015. We have not much valuable roster players or assets to make moves without taking a step back.

Context man, context

Edited December 14, 2018 by SterioDesign

[devlman]

20 minutes ago, SterioDesign said:

smartass, not all GM started with a stripped team like we did in 2015. We have not much valuable roster players or assets to make moves without taking a step back.

Context man, context

Ok dude. The context of your post was very general btw.

[titans04]

Just a quick point there's more grit on this board than the team brings on the ice.  It's not even close.

[SterioDesign]

47 minutes ago, devlman said:

Ok dude. The context of your post was very general btw.

Well sure it may be general but we're talking on a 1- Devils message board 2- about a topic specifically about Ray Shero 3- about the direction of the team and what he has to do in this situation lol 

[mfitz804]

2 hours ago, SterioDesign said:

b) we'd have to overpay for a dude and it might have a negative impact in a few years say he's not working out. But then we have to think that, even X player not producing super well... if he's younger and taking Greene TOI... then it might be positive in the end

This, in particular, is what you have to do to sign a big free agent. You take the risk of sh!t at the end for the chance at gold at the beginning. Everyone knows this, that's why players still get those 8 year deals at age 30. 

[sokar]

For those of us who missed the interview last night

 

[aclc79]

Last night's game showed what we need to do:  simply stated, NEVER QUIT!  Ray is right: like good investing, keep the long goals in mind and do not let momentary lapses get you off-course.