Nice piece over on Brodeur is a Fraud

[Triumph]

ignore the blog name; it's investigated something i've wondered about for a while now.

http://brodeurisafraud.blogspot.com/2009/10/close-games.html

hopefully this trend changes a bit this year.

[moj8681]

ignore the blog name; it's investigated something i've wondered about for a while now.

http://brodeurisafraud.blogspot.com/2009/10/close-games.html

hopefully this trend changes a bit this year.

Great find! That's a lot of work put in there... The one comment that frustrates me the most is this:

"Keep in mind that New Jersey had a relatively high success rate in mounting comebacks, which shows that they had the ability to score if they wanted to."

It's so true to anyone who watches this team regularly. We've got the firepower when we want it.

[Elias26]

Wow at the name of the blog.

He does make some great points though such as this.

Announcers and writers often focus on the late "big save" that supposedly "won the game". However, most of the time that is giving too much credit to the goalie. The reason that save looks important is that the team had already built a lead in the game.

Edited October 15, 2009 by Elias26

[Amberite]

That is a great article, albeit from a dubious source. It really made me rethink some of my perceptions of the team strategy - namely how we always hunker down in the third and "weather the storm." It has always driven me crazy, but after seeing the 130-6-7 record when leading after 2 periods, there is really not much that can be argued about. I would still prefer that we were more offensive in the third and went for the insurance goals, but again, the strategy obviously works and as long as that's the case, I'll shut up.

Thanks for posting!

[devilsrule33]

This isn't anything that should surprise Devils fan or any fan of the league for that matter. Having Centre Ice and hearing so many road announcers, you get so the same comments every game late in the second or the start of the third. "Boy do the Devils clamp down on defense when they are by a goal in the third" or "This is going to be tough because no team makes it harder to score than the Devils with the lead." etc. etc....

If anything this should be a wake up call to all the fans who seem to think that the Devils stopped trapping when Sutter came in. It was the same old Devils for the last two years in the third.

But with all that being said, it is unfair to say Brodeur doesn't have much to do with it. A lot of teams can try to do the same thing the Devils do, but you aren't going to have success without a goalie like Brodeur. None of those stats can show just one fantastic save Brodeur made to keep a one goal lead late in the third that another goalie wouldn't make. You can't just look at the numbers. Show this guy videos of Brodeur during the 2007-2008 season and the big saves he made.

Secondly, I would the Scott Clemmensen numbers with a grain of salt. If you watched those games, you saw the Devils defense play as well as it had in years. Other teams weren't getting many chances at all and Clemmy rarely had to make any big saves. I think we've always seen the Devils bear down more with a backup goalie in net than Brodeur. But that defense was simply better in front of Clemmer than it was in front of Brodeur.

[sundstrom]

he says he did the research but i'd argue that ANY team that has a lead is going to be more concerned about protecting it late than increasing it.

i'd bet that teams leading after 2 periods as a whole average less shots than they did in the first two periods because often times, the last 2 minutes are the trailing team throwing everything they can on net while the winning team is more often concerned with just getting the puck out of the zone and not creating a scoring chance on their own.

[Devil Dan 56]

Secondly, I would the Scott Clemmensen numbers with a grain of salt. If you watched those games, you saw the Devils defense play as well as it had in years. Other teams weren't getting many chances at all and Clemmy rarely had to make any big saves. I think we've always seen the Devils bear down more with a backup goalie in net than Brodeur. But that defense was simply better in front of Clemmer than it was in front of Brodeur.

I think a lot of people forget that as Brodeur was getting closer to a return, the defense was already starting to let up... For a few weeks, the defense and Clemmer were visibly slipping right up until his last game, a 4-0 loss to the Isles.

[ZeroGravityFat]

not to mention the fat rebounds clemmensen gave up almost every game that the defense had to miraculously clear to prevent easy goals.

[msweet]

it is an easy mistake to make to let numbers try to do the analysis

numbers suggest, human intelligence and observations really tell the story

Broduer is great. period.

[eaglejelly]

The real reason why the Devils win so many more 1 goal games than other teams is their inability to score empty netters. Other teams turn those 1 goal games into a 2 goal game.

[Triumph]

he says he did the research but i'd argue that ANY team that has a lead is going to be more concerned about protecting it late than increasing it.

i'd bet that teams leading after 2 periods as a whole average less shots than they did in the first two periods because often times, the last 2 minutes are the trailing team throwing everything they can on net while the winning team is more often concerned with just getting the puck out of the zone and not creating a scoring chance on their own.

there's an old post on this on the same blog and yes that is true. i'll see if i can find it when i have time.

btw dr33 i really disagree that the team magically elevated its game for clemmensen then slacked for brodeur. i will investigate the numbers soon.

[pattyelias]

Tri, good point in the comments about Brodeur being excellent in the shootout. Doesn't he have the most shootout wins of any goalie? Say what you will about the shootout being a gimmick, it's now part of the game. Stopping guys on breakaways is a very valuable skill and Brodeur's shootout numbers show that he's one of the best.

[rawker]

there's an old post on this on the same blog and yes that is true. i'll see if i can find it when i have time.

btw dr33 i really disagree that the team magically elevated its game for clemmensen then slacked for brodeur. i will investigate the numbers soon.

I dont know, i think you get that extra edge when the forward is flying down the ice and you realize, that you have clemmensen behind you.

[Devil Dan 56]

The real reason why the Devils win so many more 1 goal games than other teams is their inability to score empty netters. Other teams turn those 1 goal games into a 2 goal game.

This is a good point. Having Zetterberg and Datsyuk on the ice with 30 seconds to go and an empty net at the other end means the game will probably end 4-2 instead of 3-2. However, when you have Madden and Pandolfo out there, it's a different scenario. Usually, Madden and Pando would just look to get the puck out of the zone, meaning the game has a better chance of ending as a one-goal game.

[NJayDevil]

He says this in this post:

"This indicates that New Jersey's terrific one-goal game record is mostly from their ability to get ahead and hold onto the lead. The Devils outplay the other team early, get a lead, and then try to close out the game by protecting that margin rather than trying to extend it, a strategy that if successful leads to a lot of one-goal victories."

Then says this in another post when comparing stats with teams Up By One Goal When Leading After 2:

"The numbers show that Brodeur, Belfour and Roy all benefitted from teams that were very good at counterattacking when in the lead. Brodeur had a very good save percentage, although the Devils had the best shots for/shots against ratio and probably were mostly outplaying the opposition even while ahead late."

Both posts claiming Brodeur not to be that good. But one says it's when the Devils sit on a lead to protect. But the other stats while the Devils are still outplaying and counterattacking the opposition when with the lead in the 3rd.

Sounds like this guy is a fraud instead. Or some lonely Flyer fan with no direction or friends in life. I tend to like stat analysis from a Professional, not some waste with another motive.

[adavid]

This is a good point. Having Zetterberg and Datsyuk on the ice with 30 seconds to go and an empty net at the other end means the game will probably end 4-2 instead of 3-2. However, when you have Madden and Pandolfo out there, it's a different scenario. Usually, Madden and Pando would just look to get the puck out of the zone, meaning the game has a better chance of ending as a one-goal game.

I can't remember the last time we got an ENG.

[skullsmasher]

I think that Brodeur prevents about 10 shots a game with his incredible ability to play the puck. I wish someone would investigate the numbers and somehow come to a conclusion as to how many shots Marty cuts down in a game. If it is in fact around 10 shots per game, then with a .900 save percentage, chances are he's also cutting down by about 1 goal a game, and not by saving pucks, but by preventing the puck from being shot in the first place. Also, if he allows those 10 more shots a game then he could also raise his save percentage numbers. Marty says all the time that much of his success can be attributed to the organization, but he would not dominate at that high of a level for so long if he was not extremely durable and consistent.

[DevilNurn]

Okay, well there are some interesting numbers here and everything, but what I don't understand about this argument is that it seems like he's claiming that because the Devils aren't good at holding onto leads but still win close games, that's a bad thing. To me, it just seems like that's their system, and that's the way it goes. And they win. Not because of Brodeur, or defense, or anything. It's just a working system. So...I don't really see the problem.

[adavid]

I swear, Marty is the only goalie in the league who has to justify and prove himself every game.

[Devils Pride 26]

I just wish the blog was called Hank is a fraud, so people would see the point.

[Triumph]

He says this in this post:

"This indicates that New Jersey's terrific one-goal game record is mostly from their ability to get ahead and hold onto the lead. The Devils outplay the other team early, get a lead, and then try to close out the game by protecting that margin rather than trying to extend it, a strategy that if successful leads to a lot of one-goal victories."

Then says this in another post when comparing stats with teams Up By One Goal When Leading After 2:

"The numbers show that Brodeur, Belfour and Roy all benefitted from teams that were very good at counterattacking when in the lead. Brodeur had a very good save percentage, although the Devils had the best shots for/shots against ratio and probably were mostly outplaying the opposition even while ahead late."

Both posts claiming Brodeur not to be that good. But one says it's when the Devils sit on a lead to protect. But the other stats while the Devils are still outplaying and counterattacking the opposition when with the lead in the 3rd.

Sounds like this guy is a fraud instead. Or some lonely Flyer fan with no direction or friends in life. I tend to like stat analysis from a Professional, not some waste with another motive.

first of all, i can't find where the second quote is from, so if you could link me, that'd be great.

second, the guy has very clearly done an absolute ton of work on this website. the name isn't important. i can't even tell what team the guy is a fan of, if any. was it a poor and overly incendiary name for a blog? yeah probably, and i'd hope if he could do it again he'd make it a different name.

[Devils731]

One thing that I don't think was looked at in his analysis was shot quality. The Devils got more passive in the defensive zone with the lead the last few seasons. Other teams would likely know this and focus less on shooting lots of shots and focus more on working the puck around until able to feed the slot or cross ice passes, assuming the Devils wouldn't pressure the puck and create a turnover. Also, teams are more likely to send 4 men down low, also making it likely to raise the quality of scoring chance.

Also, Marty's save percentage drops to a number still above normal, despite the above, which if it is true as I believe, that suggests he is continuing to do a good job despite a slightly lower save percentage.

[squishyx]

Decent read, i didn't catch if he included SO wins as a "one goal win". If he does I think you have to credit Broduer a little more, if he doesn't then I guess the argument stands on it's own.

One thing that bugs me is is the claim that the Devils clamp down as a defensive team and thats why we have so many one goal game victories. He notes that the Devs go from 10.3 shots per period to 9.4 as a significant drop in offensive production as evidence of this. But you can factor this out somewhat, if you assume the Devils do manage an additional 0.9 shots in the third period and that you score 9% of the time (invert the 91% avg save ratio he listed) in about 8 or 9 games out of the 107 that we won by one goal we could have expected to score an additional goal (thus removing it from the one goal win column and bumped to the two goal win column). That still leaves us with 100 games won by a single goal, well above (~14 games) the second highest team. Also consider the offset; shooting an additional 0.9 shots per game in cases where we lost by one goal or tied would have given us a few additional one goal game victories. He didn't list how many 1 goal game losses we had over that span (just when Clemmy was in net) but I imagine that work work out to be 3-4 games, thus a net result of about 4-5 less one goal game victories had we continued to the same offensive output throughout the 3rd period.

ninja edit: mixed up shot numbers, math still works out to be roughly the same tho

Edited October 16, 2009 by squishyx

[britoon]

I felt bad even clicking on that site because of the title.

What I read was interesting, although its hard to listen to someone who thinks the Current Most Underrated Goalie is Kari Lehtonen.

[Devils1985]

it is an easy mistake to make to let numbers try to do the analysis

numbers suggest, human intelligence and observations really tell the story

Broduer is great. period.

Whatever the subject, that's a 10 bell comment right there.....