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Triumph

Race To The Bottom II - 2018-19 Edition

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The last time I did one of these threads the Devils ended up with the first overall pick, so let's see if we can't replicate the magic.  This is going to be a thread about the Devils' position in the standings vis a vis their position in the draft lottery.  I will not encourage outright tanking, but the way the standings are shaping up is quite interesting - the Devils sit in 27th now, but they could realistically finish anywhere between 20th and 31st.  I'm too lazy to screenshot so I'll do more work transcribing the standings - this is just 'Points away from .500, where .500 is averaging one point per game'

20:  VAN +1

21:  NYR +1

22:  EDM +1

23:  STL 0

24:  ARI -1

25:  FLA -1

26:  PHI -4

27:  NJD -5

28:  OTT -6

29:  DET -6

30:  LAK -7

31:  CHI -8

I think given team strength it is unlikely the Devils can sink below any of these other teams under them, but one never knows what the future holds - a goalie injury to NJ and they may well be the worst team in the league down the back stretch.

 

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I’d encourage Hall to extend his vacation a month or two..or three. No rush to come back, keep sipping those drinks on the beach. Hopefully that and Schneider’s return buys us a couple more positions downwards. We can do it!

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The way the defense is playing makes it so that any goalie in net will have to play well above average to get wins. NJ hasn't gotten that consistently all year, so I don't see any reason why the team won't continue to slip to the depths of the league standings--especially while hall remains out. Blake Coleman won't stay hot forever and Nico can't do it all on his own.

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Whatever pick we end up with, we need to make it a good one, fulfilling one of our needs.

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1 hour ago, aclc79 said:

Whatever pick we end up with, we need to make it a good one, fulfilling one of our needs.

I'm almost hoping NJ to get the #2 overall. If you get #1 overall and Hughes and still the man you have to go with him, but if you get #2 you have your choice of some pretty big kids like Kappo Kakko and Vasili Podkolzin who have size Hughes lacks. It's apparent we need size BADLY. That, or we get 1 and trade down idk. 

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I said it earlier, save the tread on halls tires.. zero rush to get back.  Cory switching places with Mac is perfect ,that's 10 less points right there....and we are an effort team.. being completely out of playoff contention means less effort.. it's only humam   staying below philly will be a chore... fingers crossed for a top 3 pick

Getting the first overall pick would go a long way in helping us resign hall... it would huge psychologically

Edited by EdgeControl

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We're absolutely not getting the first overall pick.  I think we finish somewhere around 22nd/23rd.  We're not worse than the Coyotes/Blues/Senators/Panthers, and as others have mentioned, the schedule is somewhat favorable down the stretch in that we've already played a ton of the top teams in the league in the first half of the year, especially those out west.  Also, someone else mentioned if we were to get a goalie injury that would help us slide further...we already did, as technically we're on our 3rd string goalie.  

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15 minutes ago, NJDfan1711 said:

 Also, someone else mentioned if we were to get a goalie injury that would help us slide further...we already did, as technically we're on our 3rd string goalie.  

Actually, we’re in a weird spot where our “#1” Goalie getting healthy might give us the best chance of losing.

And technically, Lack was the 3rd string, Blackwood is 4th. But Lack was hurt. 

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1 minute ago, mfitz804 said:

Actually, we’re in a weird spot where our “#1” Goalie getting healthy might give us the best chance of losing.

And technically, Lack was the 3rd string, Blackwood is 4th. But Lack was hurt. 

True, forgot about Lack.  Without a doubt if you look at the first half of the season you'd think Cory coming back would hurt our chances, but I refuse to believe that he could possibly play worse if/when he returns.  I don't expect him to play well, but I think he plays a little bit better.  I mean, the games I saw him play this season were some of the worst goaltending performances I've ever seen. Ever.  It was that bad.  I don't know if there's such as a thing as "rock bottom" because if a goalie plays a game and doesn't make a single save, he could not make a save in the next game, and the game after that, and so on and so on, so technically it can always be worse I guess, but realistically speaking, I think if Cory comes back it's not going to get us much closer to the bottom than we are now.

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Some decent results yesterday - Arizona and Chicago won, but unfortunately Detroit-Vancouver couldn't go into OT:

20:  VAN +2

21:  NYR +1

22:  EDM 0

23:  STL 0

24:  ARI 0

25:  FLA -1

26:  PHI -4

27:  NJD -5

28:  OTT -6

29:  DET -7

30:  LAK -7

31:  CHI -7

For now I'll update without tiebreakers.

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42 minutes ago, NJDfan1711 said:

Without a doubt if you look at the first half of the season you'd think Cory coming back would hurt our chances, but I refuse to believe that he could possibly play worse if/when he returns. 

I understand the thought. But, we all kind of thought that when he came back from injury this past time also, and then...

And you can’t argue that the previous time was because he was coming off hip surgery, because if that was his problem then, sitting out these last 10-15 games or whatever it was isn’t likely to have helped that; if it was a problem then, it probably still is now. 

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46 minutes ago, NJDfan1711 said:

I don't know if there's such as a thing as "rock bottom" because if a goalie plays a game and doesn't make a single save, he could not make a save in the next game, and the game after that, and so on and so on, so technically it can always be worse I guess

Rock bottom in this instance would be LTIR, demotion to the AHL, or getting waived while a 22 year old who was in the ECHL last year takes your NHL job. 

So he’s halfway there. 

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20 hours ago, Satans Hockey said:

If they ever start Cory again that will be an easy way to the bottom of the league. 

Seriously.  Just ride Cory for the rest of the season, assuming he manages to stay healthy.

He either figures his sh!t out, or we lose 80% of our games going forward and sink to the bottom of the standings.  Win-win.

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26 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

I understand the thought. But, we all kind of thought that when he came back from injury this past time also, and then...

And you can’t argue that the previous time was because he was coming off hip surgery, because if that was his problem then, sitting out these last 10-15 games or whatever it was isn’t likely to have helped that; if it was a problem then, it probably still is now. 

Yeah, I've been on record saying I didn't give much credence to Cory's hip injury, and I especially don't now.  Guy has hardly played at all in the last two seasons, and he also had the entire summer to recover.  

If you look at it as a whole, Cory never played more than 35 games in a season before coming here (actually 33 to be exact), which is pretty insane.  We know why that is, he was a backup to Luongo, but that doesn't make it any less true.  Fact is he was sheltered.  He posted nice save percentages for 3 years  of .929, .937, and .927 while he had a pretty easy workload.  Not to mention when he did start in place of Luongo, it was probably against lesser opponents, and with lots of rest in between.  Pretty kush gig.  He comes to NJ and is given he starting role.  In the next 3 seasons he is asked to play 60 games, and he posts respectable numbers of .921, .925, and .924.  The next year, clearly the workload has taken a toll on him, and the numbers fall off a cliff, and the injuries start to pile up.  .908, .907...…...852.  Schneider has only played 379 games in his career, and he's going to be 33 years old in two months.  I hate to say it, and it's pretty shocking given his age, but his career is probably finished.  

Lou tried to do what he could to get us a suitable replacement for the great number 30 in the waning hours of Brodeur's career, and on paper it looked good at the time, i.e. a young goalie, not many miles on him, learned from Luongo, etc, but this clearly seems like a case of a guy who just wasn't what he was cracked up to be, and unfortunately wasn't nearly as durable as most goalies are.

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9 minutes ago, NJDfan1711 said:

Yeah, I've been on record saying I didn't give much credence to Cory's hip injury, and I especially don't now.  Guy has hardly played at all in the last Lou tried to do what he could to get us a suitable replacement for the great number 30 in the waning hours of Brodeur's career, and on paper it looked good at the time, i.e. a young goalie, not many miles on him, learned from Luongo, etc, but this clearly seems like a case of a guy who just wasn't what he was cracked up to be, and unfortunately wasn't nearly as durable as most goalies are.

I think that pretty much sums it up, with the added proviso that not being durable may be why he isn’t what he was cracked up to be. 

As far as the hip injury goes, tearing a labrum can happen from repetition, but it doesn’t have to. You don’t have to have played a lot to tear a labrum. Just looking at how he moves now compared to a few years ago, it’s hard to argue it’s not injury related, even if that injury was caused by lack of durability. 

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I'll still hold hope for Cory. Rinne, Luongo all took a long time to recover from this. Luongo said recently of Cory, that it took him like 2 years to fully recover from the surgery.

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45 minutes ago, NJDfan1711 said:

Yeah, I've been on record saying I didn't give much credence to Cory's hip injury, and I especially don't now.  Guy has hardly played at all in the last two seasons, and he also had the entire summer to recover.  

If you look at it as a whole, Cory never played more than 35 games in a season before coming here (actually 33 to be exact), which is pretty insane.  We know why that is, he was a backup to Luongo, but that doesn't make it any less true.  Fact is he was sheltered.  He posted nice save percentages for 3 years  of .929, .937, and .927 while he had a pretty easy workload.  Not to mention when he did start in place of Luongo, it was probably against lesser opponents, and with lots of rest in between.  Pretty kush gig.  He comes to NJ and is given he starting role.  In the next 3 seasons he is asked to play 60 games, and he posts respectable numbers of .921, .925, and .924.  The next year, clearly the workload has taken a toll on him, and the numbers fall off a cliff, and the injuries start to pile up.  .908, .907...…...852.  Schneider has only played 379 games in his career, and he's going to be 33 years old in two months.  I hate to say it, and it's pretty shocking given his age, but his career is probably finished.  

Lou tried to do what he could to get us a suitable replacement for the great number 30 in the waning hours of Brodeur's career, and on paper it looked good at the time, i.e. a young goalie, not many miles on him, learned from Luongo, etc, but this clearly seems like a case of a guy who just wasn't what he was cracked up to be, and unfortunately wasn't nearly as durable as most goalies are.

Schneider didn't have a sweet gig in Vancouver playing behind Luongo. He outplayed Luongo and took the starting job. Vancouver spent a year trying to unload Luongo. But no one was biting. Edmonton was throwing everything the could at Vancouver for Schneider, but they wouldn't trade him somewhere where the had to play him often and they didn't want Luongo. 

That's why the Devils getting Schneider for the 9th overall was considered a steal. Vancouver could have gotten a lot more for him from Edmonton. Of course the damage was done and Luongo was gone not long after.

I also don't know how you can discredit the hip injury. If you watch his play from years ago and his play now, it's clear he's not as mobile as he once was and it's absolutely gotten to him mentally. If he ever fixes it remains to be seen but I'm not going to discredit his previous work. 

 

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If we win the lottery again for the 3rd time in 8 years... conspiracy theorist saying it's rigged might have a good argument lol 

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lets dump global warming and isis on cory..  😜 

the first 3 years were solid. the team just stunk. nobody was saying he was physically weak or brittle..  the issue was late and untimely goals... lou didnt do much in his last few years but getting cory was a positive. it fixed a broken situation.. zero complaints from me..  he got hurt and fell of a cliff, it happens

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On 1/21/2019 at 11:12 AM, Devil Dan 56 said:

Schneider didn't have a sweet gig in Vancouver playing behind Luongo. He outplayed Luongo and took the starting job. Vancouver spent a year trying to unload Luongo. But no one was biting. Edmonton was throwing everything the could at Vancouver for Schneider, but they wouldn't trade him somewhere where the had to play him often and they didn't want Luongo. 

That's why the Devils getting Schneider for the 9th overall was considered a steal. Vancouver could have gotten a lot more for him from Edmonton. Of course the damage was done and Luongo was gone not long after.

I also don't know how you can discredit the hip injury. If you watch his play from years ago and his play now, it's clear he's not as mobile as he once was and it's absolutely gotten to him mentally. If he ever fixes it remains to be seen but I'm not going to discredit his previous work. 

 

He's been trying to discredit it for weeks.  Only God knows why.

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1 hour ago, DevsMan84 said:

He's been trying to discredit it for weeks.  Only God knows why.

I'm not discrediting that he has a hip injury at all.  It's not like I'm implying that the guy is faking it.  What I discredit, to a degree, is how much the injury is related to his level of suckage right now.  I really think people underestimate how hard it is to do what Cory has done, injury or not.  He has lost 15+ regular season games in a row, and posted a wonderful .850 save percentage as a starting goalie making 6 million dollars a year.  It's one thing for a backup to do that, if any of them have, but a starter?  It's virtually unheard of.

 What I also discredit is the fact that it seems to have taken him a longer than average time to recover from said injury.  I find it hard to believe that Luongo would say that Cory still has time to go, when Luongo himself recovered from the injury in less time lol.  Doesn't quite make sense, but hey, whatever, I really don't care. 

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16 minutes ago, NJDfan1711 said:

I'm not discrediting that he has a hip injury at all.  It's not like I'm implying that the guy is faking it.  What I discredit, to a degree, is how much the injury is related to his level of suckage right now. 

 What I also discredit is the fact that it seems to have taken him a longer than average time to recover from injury. 

Regarding the first paragraph, if you watch hockey you can see with your own eyes that Cory doesn’t move like he used to. If it’s not the injury, what is it? The guy is a totally different player, you can’t look at stats to determine that. Watch a game and watch the guy play, you’ll see it. 

Regarding the second, you have no idea what the extent of Cory’s injury was, how it affected him, or where he is in the rehab process. To base your opinion on “average” recovery times for an injury makes no sense, as every injury is different in location, degree, and obviously, recovery time. It’s whiy one guy misses 3 months with a meniscus tear and Taylor Hall missed 8 games. 

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14 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

Regarding the first paragraph, if you watch hockey you can see with your own eyes that Cory doesn’t move like he used to. If it’s not the injury, what is it? The guy is a totally different player, you can’t look at stats to determine that. Watch a game and watch the guy play, you’ll see it. 

Regarding the second, you have no idea what the extent of Cory’s injury was, how it affected him, or where he is in the rehab process. To base your opinion on “average” recovery times for an injury makes no sense, as every injury is different in location, degree, and obviously, recovery time. It’s whiy one guy misses 3 months with a meniscus tear and Taylor Hall missed 8 games. 

To your first point - I've seen several games that Cory has started post-injury live and in person, both this season, and last.  Yes, he is slower, but it's not just that.  He's off on angles, he's terrible playing the puck (even worse than he was initially), etc.  And to say that a guy who suddenly moves slower is absolutely due to an injury is an insult to every goalie out there right now who still moves quickly. You can't look at a guy whose play has declined and just go "Oh, he let in 7 goals tonight, yup, he must be injured.  There's no other way to explain it".  That's just horrendously absurd on so many levels.  To your point "what else could it be?"  I dunno, old age?...a general decline in skills?...  MENTAL RETARDATION?  I mean c'mon man.  

To your second point, you're right, we don't know exactly what happened, but basing an opinion on average recovery times does make sense.  Yes, every injury is different, but there's a reason why initial timetables are given.  No doctor is going to say "Yes, you will absolutely be healed by this date X/Y/ZZ", but there's enough evidence through the history of time since doctors have been in existence where they can reasonably (and, usually accurately) suggest a timeframe for recovery.  It can be done even with the most advanced and severe injures related to the brain, and it can absolutely be done with hip injuries.  

Edited by NJDfan1711

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