2019 Offseason Thread

[aylbert]

8 minutes ago, jagknife said:

Wide speculation it’s gonna be the Islanders but my big question then becomes wasn’t that something Lou was adamantly against?

People change, especially when your last cup was nearly twenty years ago.

[jagknife]

8 minutes ago, aylbert said:

People change, especially when your last cup was nearly twenty years ago.

His ideals and methods followed him to Toronto and the Island, in my opinion he very much has not changed.

[jagknife]

9 minutes ago, MadDog2020 said:

Who knows? After all this, there probably won’t even be another offer sheet. There was one offer sheet, everyone goes nuts like this is gonna be some kind of new normal, and then.... nothing. That would be the least surprising thing to happen. 

Man would it be fun though haha

The lineup, as is, plus Marner....

[Neb00rs]

2 hours ago, MadDog2020 said:

Who knows? After all this, there probably won’t even be another offer sheet. There was one offer sheet, everyone goes nuts like this is gonna be some kind of new normal, and then.... nothing. That would be the least surprising thing to happen. 

There's a lot of unwise discourse that's gone on this offseason re: offer sheets. Just when you think fans around the league have finally figured out that UFA is a bunch of fool's gold, all of a sudden every fanbase has [some] fans screaming for their team to offer sheet Marner at 11-12M. People can't see that this is the same kind of hysteria that sees teams end up with bad contracts during free agency. You see the limited players available and you start to talk yourself into what's there and pretty soon what was a good racehorse is now a golden unicorn. Mitch Marner scored 94 points one time.  He had one elite caliber season and now people are dying to pay him 11M+ a year along with handing 4 first round picks to the Leafs. That's the thing about stacked teams - everyone gets a boost in value when the truth is some of the players on the team are probably not as good anywhere else in the league. How often do we see players change teams in trades or FA and they never put up their prior numbers again? This is the same thing. Sure, sometimes it works out but Mitch Marner picked up his points dishing to John Tavares. Who's really willing to bet a 7/80M contract on Mitch doing that anywhere else? 

He's just not worth that, not yet anyway. He's probably just barely worth 11M AAV to the Leafs and they don't have to give up picks to get him. He's the last big contract they can fit under the cap as it stands and they have no D getting paid for real yet. As far as I'm concerned there's only one player that is worth what it would take to win Marner with an offer sheet and his name isn't Marner, it's McDavid. Okay maybe Kucherov too.

Edited July 6, 2019 by Neb00rs

[Devil Dan 56]

9 hours ago, jagknife said:

So apparently, I was wrong, his last contract was only $850k. I bet he was offered that or something ballpark and he wasn't happy. I bet he settles for a cool $1m

He might not have been offered anything other than the qualifying offer. Taking arbitration is usually more of a formality than a sign that a player isn't happy and remember, a lot of these decisions are suggested by the agents

[Lateralous]

8 hours ago, Neb00rs said:

There's a lot of unwise discourse that's gone on this offseason re: offer sheets. Just when you think fans around the league have finally figured out that UFA is a bunch of fool's gold, all of a sudden every fanbase has [some] fans screaming for their team to offer sheet Marner at 11-12M. People can't see that this is the same kind of hysteria that sees teams end up with bad contracts during free agency. You see the limited players available and you start to talk yourself into what's there and pretty soon what was a good racehorse is now a golden unicorn. Mitch Marner scored 94 points one time.  He had one elite caliber season and now people are dying to pay him 11M+ a year along with handing 4 first round picks to the Leafs. That's the thing about stacked teams - everyone gets a boost in value when the truth is some of the players on the team are probably not as good anywhere else in the league. How often do we see players change teams in trades or FA and they never put up their prior numbers again? This is the same thing. Sure, sometimes it works out but Mitch Marner picked up his points dishing to John Tavares. Who's really willing to bet a 7/80M contract on Mitch doing that anywhere else? 

He's just not worth that, not yet anyway. He's probably just barely worth 11M AAV to the Leafs and they don't have to give up picks to get him. He's the last big contract they can fit under the cap as it stands and they have no D getting paid for real yet. As far as I'm concerned there's only one player that is worth what it would take to win Marner with an offer sheet and his name isn't Marner, it's McDavid. Okay maybe Kucherov too.

All true which is why I’m rooting for other teams to offer sheet each other, preferably at numbers much higher than what the Canadiens did for Carolina with Aho.   If Lou can pull Marner to the Island, that seriously weakens the Leafs non playoff series winning roster during a period of time that they were convinced they would be a dynasty while the islanders even with Marner still don’t have a great roster IMO.  I would love to see the madness play out as long as its not the team I root for.   

[Nicomo]

Please no Marner on the Isles. The Rags have already improved enough. We don’t need another superstar in the Metro. 

It’s all fine and good if it causes them trouble down the road, but for right now it’s just going to make it that much harder for the Devils to compete within the division. And with the Pens and Caps getting older it will hopefully be a little more open to win going forward. 

[SterioDesign]

9 hours ago, Neb00rs said:

There's a lot of unwise discourse that's gone on this offseason re: offer sheets. Just when you think fans around the league have finally figured out that UFA is a bunch of fool's gold, all of a sudden every fanbase has [some] fans screaming for their team to offer sheet Marner at 11-12M. People can't see that this is the same kind of hysteria that sees teams end up with bad contracts during free agency. You see the limited players available and you start to talk yourself into what's there and pretty soon what was a good racehorse is now a golden unicorn. Mitch Marner scored 94 points one time.  He had one elite caliber season and now people are dying to pay him 11M+ a year along with handing 4 first round picks to the Leafs. That's the thing about stacked teams - everyone gets a boost in value when the truth is some of the players on the team are probably not as good anywhere else in the league. How often do we see players change teams in trades or FA and they never put up their prior numbers again? This is the same thing. Sure, sometimes it works out but Mitch Marner picked up his points dishing to John Tavares. Who's really willing to bet a 7/80M contract on Mitch doing that anywhere else? 

He's just not worth that, not yet anyway. He's probably just barely worth 11M AAV to the Leafs and they don't have to give up picks to get him. He's the last big contract they can fit under the cap as it stands and they have no D getting paid for real yet. As far as I'm concerned there's only one player that is worth what it would take to win Marner with an offer sheet and his name isn't Marner, it's McDavid. Okay maybe Kucherov too.

Why Kucherov but not Marner though? Kucherov had 149pts through his first 3 NHL seasons and Marner had 224 in his 3 first seasons. 

[Neb00rs]

6 minutes ago, SterioDesign said:

Why Kucherov but not Marner though? Kucherov had 149pts through his first 3 NHL seasons and Marner had 224 in his 3 first seasons. 

I don't follow your logic. What does the first three seasons have to do with anything? Kucherov has put up three straight 85+ point seasons, including two straight at 100+ points. You score 128 points in a season and there's a high likelihood you're going to be elite for years to come. I'll agree he's less worthy of an offer sheet than McDavid. McDavid is a 22 year old that is already the best player in the league. 

[jagknife]

42 minutes ago, Lateralous said:

All true which is why I’m rooting for other teams to offer sheet each other, preferably at numbers much higher than what the Canadiens did for Carolina with Aho.   If Lou can pull Marner to the Island, that seriously weakens the Leafs non playoff series winning roster during a period of time that they were convinced they would be a dynasty while the islanders even with Marner still don’t have a great roster IMO.  I would love to see the madness play out as long as its not the team I root for.   

I’d take Marner based off three years of production, even at $11m. He carried the Leafs two years ago when Matthews was hurt for 20 games, and has lead that team in points back to back years. He’d instantly make us go from playoff participant actually doing some damage, based on my own advanced stats of good offense counters potentially sh!tty goaltending (let’s call it GFG: Goals for Goalies, since it’s completely made up)

[jagknife]

1 minute ago, Neb00rs said:

I don't follow your logic. What does the first three seasons have to do with anything? Kucherov has put up three straight 85+ point seasons, including two straight at 100+ points. You score 128 points in a season and there's a high likelihood you're going to be elite for years to come. I'll agree he's less worthy of an offer sheet than McDavid. McDavid is a 22 year old that is already the best player in the league. 

Because people are willing to gamble on Marner after doing better over his first three than someone you consider elite and willing to spend a ton on who performed “worse”

[mfitz804]

4 minutes ago, jagknife said:

Because people are willing to gamble on Marner after doing better over his first three than someone you consider elite and willing to spend a ton on who performed “worse”

But he didn’t say Kucherov in 2016, he was talking about now. 

[jagknife]

6 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

But he didn’t say Kucherov in 2016, he was talking about now. 

Right, two years later. But are we really going to say Marner’s game is suddenly going to fall off a cliff, outside of catastrophic injuries?

[Lateralous]

10 minutes ago, jagknife said:

I’d take Marner based off three years of production, even at $11m. He carried the Leafs two years ago when Matthews was hurt for 20 games, and has lead that team in points back to back years. He’d instantly make us go from playoff participant actually doing some damage, based on my own advanced stats of good offense counters potentially sh!tty goaltending (let’s call it GFG: Goals for Goalies, since it’s completely made up)

Marner is certainly a great player but committing 11m of cap space + 4 first round picks severely limits how we round out the roster and specifically the defense.  I don’t think that makes sense to add another winger, no matter how good he is. We kind of just become what the Leafs are now, great offense and a defense that doesn’t get you anywhere in the playoffs.  

Granted, I’m under the assumption that the goal is to sign the superstar winger already on our roster.  If Shero thinks Hall might actually walk then maybe you offer sheet Marner with the intent of using Hall to address the defense.  

[jagknife]

12 minutes ago, Lateralous said:

Marner is certainly a great player but committing 11m of cap space + 4 first round picks severely limits how we round out the roster and specifically the defense.  I don’t think that makes sense to add another winger, no matter how good he is. We kind of just become what the Leafs are now, great offense and a defense that doesn’t get you anywhere in the playoffs.  

Granted, I’m under the assumption that the goal is to sign the superstar winger already on our roster.  If Shero thinks Hall might actually walk then maybe you offer sheet Marner with the intent of using Hall to address the defense.  

Like MB just said, though, we lose Greene’s contract next year, Zajac takes a pay cut when his expires, we have the space to build the defense. A talent like Marner’s makes those first round picks become late firsts. No, I’m not dismissing the value of a first round pick, but man, to add another superstar to Hall Nico Hughes would do wonders for the offense. That, in turn takes pressure off the defense so we can develop the Smiths of the pipeline and let them make mistakes without killing our chances

[2ELIAS6]

16 minutes ago, MB3 said:

I would offersheet Marner in ten seconds at 12.5.

i think you guys are dramatically overestimating the damages of overpaying a player 1 or 2 million dollars. The devils are not a cap team. The devils haven’t been a cap team in years. The devils have stupid contracts for older players expiring between now and the time Hughes has to re-sign. 

I am absolutely with you on this.. even with signing Marner we don't know what is going to happen with hall. If hall decides he wants to move on we will regroup I'm imagining at a minimum at least one of those 1st rounders in a package coming back our way. If hall stays and we add Marner my god this offense has just become extremely lethal.. and as mentioned by the time we need to hand out big raises to our younger guys other money will be freeing up. I don't for see this being as big of a problem as some of the drama queens are trying to make it out to be.

[DevilMinder]

NHL Signing- Marcus Johansson to the #Sabres for 2 years $9M. $4.5M AAV

— David Amber (@DavidAmber) July 6, 2019

[jagknife]

12 minutes ago, DevilMinder said:

Good luck to him up there. At least Marchand wont think twice about cheap shooting him again.

[mfitz804]

21 minutes ago, MB3 said:

It just confuses me that people say “I’m fine with Marner at 11 but OH MY GOD 12.5 HANG UP THE PHONE AND KILL YOURSELF SHERO WOW”

What in the hell are you doing with that extra 1.5? We’re eeking above the salary FLOOR right now ya dinguses!

People were complaining that $5m for one year of Simmonds was too much. People are stupid. 

Personally I'm more worried about the draft picks than the dollar amount. I’m not sure I want to give up 4 first rounders if Marner is only willing to sign a 3 year deal. 

[MadDog2020]

This is such a great story. This guy is my Canadian brother from another mother lol. https://theathletic.com/1062729/2019/07/04/from-mickey-mouse-to-jack-hughes-life-as-a-devils-family-in-alberta/

[MadDog2020]

40 minutes ago, DevilMinder said:

Good for MoJo. 

[MadDog2020]

14 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

People were complaining that $5m for one year of Simmonds was too much. People are stupid. 

Personally I'm more worried about the draft picks than the dollar amount. I’m not sure I want to give up 4 first rounders if Marner is only willing to sign a 3 year deal. 

I’m sure that I don’t. No fvcking way am I giving up four 1’s if this dude is only singing for three years. Not a chance. Seven years or fvck off, Mitch.

[Daniel]

1 hour ago, MB3 said:

I would offersheet Marner in ten seconds at 12.5.

i think you guys are dramatically overestimating the damages of overpaying a player 1 or 2 million dollars. The devils are not a cap team. The devils haven’t been a cap team in years. The devils have stupid contracts for older players expiring between now and the time Hughes has to re-sign. 

It’s not overpaying Marner that’s the issue, but potentially having four players (Marner, Hall, Nico and Hughes) taking up almost half your cap space and maybe $50 million by five players if Smith is up for a giant deal should give you some pause or at least you have to have all your ducks in a row.  I still say worry about three years in three years, but it’s not something you can toss off as whatever.

The draft picks don’t bother me.

[Neb00rs]

1 hour ago, jagknife said:

I’d take Marner based off three years of production, even at $11m. He carried the Leafs two years ago when Matthews was hurt for 20 games, and has lead that team in points back to back years. He’d instantly make us go from playoff participant actually doing some damage, based on my own advanced stats of good offense counters potentially sh!tty goaltending (let’s call it GFG: Goals for Goalies, since it’s completely made up)

You're not paying 11M for him though. You're paying 11M and 4 firsts. Actually to get the Leafs to let him walk you probably need 12. So that's 12M for seven years, four years worth of first round draft picks (which often equate to cheap roster players for three years), and the Devils probably can't make any more big moves for awhile (with Hall re-signed). And you're doing all that based on what he's done in the league so far? 

[HellOnICE]

I just don't see point in offering 4 first rounders for any one player.