The 2021 Offseason Thread

[MadDog2020]

Lou K LamoSubban 🤣

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

44 minutes ago, MadDog2020 said:

Lou K LamoSubban 🤣

PK Lube-on

[Rob_Ottawa]

So Philly with a batsh!t crazy signing contract for Courtourier today. Was way more than I expected. Does this mean more correction  for covid not happening as expected or just typical Philly stupidity?

[NJDevils1214]

1 hour ago, Rob_Ottawa said:

So Philly with a batsh!t crazy signing contract for Courtourier today. Was way more than I expected. Does this mean more correction  for covid not happening as expected or just typical Philly stupidity?

He's a former Selke winner, scored over 70pts in 2 of the last 4 seasons, and he was on pace to do it both seasons that were shortened by Covid. Suffice to say I think he's a pretty good player and I don't agree with your assessment. I'm sure Filthy wishes the term was less since he will be 36 when the contract is up, but those are the kinds of things teams usually bend on all the time to get players signed.

[mfitz804]

12 minutes ago, MB3 said:

Lmao my god dude I have never disagreed with 100% of the comments from another member before but I'm pretty sure you're batting 1.000.

This seems like a fair deal, trending towards team-friendly. The term is fvcking fabulous, the length is what got them that term. In a flat-cap world, this contract is perfect.

I have to say I agree, that’s the exact right kind of deal for a 28 year old who puts up the points he does. You take the risk of the last couple of years being weak to lock in the first 6 at a team friendly price. 
 

 

[DevsMan84]

Last 3 seasons:

Couturier: .91 ppg and gets $7.75M AVV

Hischier: .64 ppg and carries a cap hit of $7.25M AVV

 

So which one is overpaid between the two?

 

I will show myself out now.

[mfitz804]

1 minute ago, DevsMan84 said:

Last 3 seasons:

Couturier: .91 ppg and gets $7.75M AVV

Hischier: .64 ppg and carries a cap hit of $7.25M AVV

 

So which one is overpaid between the two?

 

I will show myself out now.

I don’t know if Nico is overpaid, you are showing loyalty and investing in his future. If he doesn’t get to Couturier’s level or close, then he probably is. 

But, it’s essentially conclusive proof that Couturier is not being overpaid on this contract. 

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

11 hours ago, DevsMan84 said:

Last 3 seasons:

Couturier: .91 ppg and gets $7.75M AVV

Hischier: .64 ppg and carries a cap hit of $7.25M AVV

 

So which one is overpaid between the two?

 

I will show myself out now.

They're not being paid for what they've done.  They're being paid for what they're (hopefully) going to do (the ol' "paid based on what they were, but who are they going to forward?  How many of these later season will be decline years"?).  Basically means that we can't answer this question today...but if I'm a Flyers fan, sure, right now I feel like my team signed Couturier to a very reasonable deal, and even though it's not like 8-year deals have proven to be great investments, I'm still happy that he's still on my team, and will be for quite some time.  We'll see if they're still happy about it 3+ years from now.    

For Nico, we know the deal...he needs to stay healthy...because we've gotten some teases as to what he can be, but then comes an injury, and he hasn't yet shown the ability to pick up right away from where he left off when he's able to get back on the ice.  But if he does indeed do that and it all comes together...and Couturier in Year 3 or 4 of his deal is no longer productive (some guys do see that happen, especially a guy like Couturier who already has nearly 700 regular season games under his belt), then the apparent disparity shown above won't mean a whole lot.  Basically just a way of saying that what looks like a "win" for the Flyers on 8/26/2022 won't necessarily be one down the line.

[Devil Dan 56]

Well that sure is nice to read

[mfitz804]

38 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

They're not being paid for what they've done.  They're being paid for what they're (hopefully) going to do.

With regard to Nico, definitely. For Couturier, who is 0.91 PPG over the last 4 seasons, probably a little bit of it is that he has proven that he can produce. 

I know it'll be an unpopular take, but suffice to say in those same 4 years, Nico is nowhere close to that kind of production. I think this is a big year for Nico to show what he can do. He is turning 23 in January and entering his fifth year. I'm not saying he needs to reach his full potential right now, or that he should have already, but now he's the captain, he'l locked in long term, its time for him to show the kind of player he is going to be.

If 0.6 ppg and solid defense is his ceiling, then it is what it is. I suspect he's still got a little more to show us, I just hope he is able to stay on the ice long enough to do so. 

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

32 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

With regard to Nico, definitely. For Couturier, who is 0.91 PPG over the last 4 seasons, probably a little bit of it is that he has proven that he can produce. 

I know it'll be an unpopular take, but suffice to say in those same 4 years, Nico is nowhere close to that kind of production. I think this is a big year for Nico to show what he can do. He is turning 23 in January and entering his fifth year. I'm not saying he needs to reach his full potential right now, or that he should have already, but now he's the captain, he'l locked in long term, its time for him to show the kind of player he is going to be.

If 0.6 ppg and solid defense is his ceiling, then it is what it is. I suspect he's still got a little more to show us, I just hope he is able to stay on the ice long enough to do so. 

For whatever it's worth, Couturier's first six seasons saw him notch 191 points in 416 GP.  The production didn't come until he'd played over 5 full seasons' worth of NHL games.

But yeah I agree, it feels like it needs to happen for Nico very soon...like many Devils fans, I like the guy a lot, but after a solid rookie campaign, it's been starts and stops and hints of what could be.  It's not like he's had a great team around him, but at the same time, yeah, it's just about time to figure out what he really is...like you say, is he merely decent offensively but more of an all-around guy who'll provide intangibles and be a solid leader?  Or is there more of an upside to his glamour numbers?  

[mfitz804]

32 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

For whatever it's worth, Couturier's first six seasons saw him notch 191 points in 416 GP.  The production didn't come until he'd played over 5 full seasons' worth of NHL games.

Agreed, which is why I said that at least in part, Courturier is being paid for what he has done, not just on his potential which is more the case for Nico. 

33 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Or is there more of an upside to his glamour numbers?  

I really dislike the labeling of points scored as "glamour numbers". I don't think this take will surprise anyone, but when a guy is a great analytics player and doesn't convert that into actual points, I am not as impressed.

Give me a guy who scores 70 "glamour points" every season, and I will be happy to pay him. Give me a guy who has great anticipated stats and has "bad luck" and I will pay him like a guy who doesn't convert. 

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

2 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

I really dislike the labeling of points scored as "glamour numbers". I don't think this take will surprise anyone, but when a guy is a great analytics player and doesn't convert that into actual points, I am not as impressed.

Give me a guy who scores 70 "glamour points" every season, and I will be happy to pay him. Give me a guy who has great anticipated stats and has "bad luck" and I will pay him like a guy who doesn't convert. 

You're looking into what I posted more deeply than I intended...I wasn't trying to prop up analytics.  More wondering aloud what kind of offensive player Nico can be...is he a 50-60 point guy per 82 GP, or a 70+ point guy per 82 GP?  I only call them "glamour" (or quick-glance) numbers because they're often the easiest and most accessible to check (and the ones that fans universally can understand), but by themselves don't always tell the whole story...but many people do see them and judge a player's worth almost solely by them. 

[mfitz804]

54 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

You're looking into what I posted more deeply than I intended...I wasn't trying to prop up analytics.  More wondering aloud what kind of offensive player Nico can be...is he a 50-60 point guy per 82 GP, or a 70+ point guy per 82 GP?  I only call them "glamour" (or quick-glance) numbers because they're often the easiest and most accessible to check (and the ones that fans universally can understand), but by themselves don't always tell the whole story...but many people do see them and judge a player's worth almost solely by them. 

Maybe so. I just hate that term. 

[SterioDesign]

1 hour ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

For whatever it's worth, Couturier's first six seasons saw him notch 191 points in 416 GP.  The production didn't come until he'd played over 5 full seasons' worth of NHL games.

But yeah I agree, it feels like it needs to happen for Nico very soon...like many Devils fans, I like the guy a lot, but after a solid rookie campaign, it's been starts and stops and hints of what could be.  It's not like he's had a great team around him, but at the same time, yeah, it's just about time to figure out what he really is...like you say, is he merely decent offensively but more of an all-around guy who'll provide intangibles and be a solid leader?  Or is there more of an upside to his glamour numbers?  

yeah didn't have a great team around him but first overalls are usually guys that should make their linemates better

[mfitz804]

32 minutes ago, SterioDesign said:

yeah didn't have a great team around him but first overalls are usually guys that should make their linemates better

He was 0.63 PPG playing beside MVP Taylor Hall, and he has been 0.63 PPG since. 

You can probably argue that his rookie year numbers were inflated by Hall and he has progressed, but if he is 0.63 PPG again this year, at what point do we just say he is a 0.63 PPG guy?

[SterioDesign]

2 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

He was 0.63 PPG playing beside MVP Taylor Hall, and he has been 0.63 PPG since. 

You can probably argue that his rookie year numbers were inflated by Hall and he has progressed, but if he is 0.63 PPG again this year, at what point do we just say he is a 0.63 PPG guy?

i'd be personally pretty confident saying it now but sure hoping he's cranking it up

[devlman]

6 hours ago, mfitz804 said:

With regard to Nico, definitely. For Couturier, who is 0.91 PPG over the last 4 seasons, probably a little bit of it is that he has proven that he can produce. 

I know it'll be an unpopular take, but suffice to say in those same 4 years, Nico is nowhere close to that kind of production. I think this is a big year for Nico to show what he can do. He is turning 23 in January and entering his fifth year. I'm not saying he needs to reach his full potential right now, or that he should have already, but now he's the captain, he'l locked in long term, its time for him to show the kind of player he is going to be.

If 0.6 ppg and solid defense is his ceiling, then it is what it is. I suspect he's still got a little more to show us, I just hope he is able to stay on the ice long enough to do so. 

I truly felt Nico was primed to breakout last season until he had the worst luck (Broken leg, Covid, broken sinus cavity). I think this year he’s our best player and busts out the production across the board. Ppg could be in reach.

[Nicomo]

2 goals for Sharongovich in a 5-2 win against Austria. Glad to see Marco Rossi is playing hockey again. 

[Chuck the Duck]

29 minutes ago, Nicomo said:

2 goals for Sharongovich in a 5-2 win against Austria. Glad to see Marco Rossi is playing hockey again. 

Sharangoalvich turned a hot start in the KHL into a very good rookie year in the NHL.  Hopefully he can piggy back off a good performance for Belarus at the Olympic qualifiers the same when when the NHl season gets going in October.

[Guadana]

I`m not to worry about Nico ppg. 55-65 points? Ok. I want to score more from him. I think he has good potential to score 30+ goals and be a solid two way guy. But for a start, it would be nice to stay healthy.

[DevsMan84]

12 hours ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

They're not being paid for what they've done.  They're being paid for what they're (hopefully) going to do (the ol' "paid based on what they were, but who are they going to forward?  How many of these later season will be decline years"?).  Basically means that we can't answer this question today...but if I'm a Flyers fan, sure, right now I feel like my team signed Couturier to a very reasonable deal, and even though it's not like 8-year deals have proven to be great investments, I'm still happy that he's still on my team, and will be for quite some time.  We'll see if they're still happy about it 3+ years from now.    

For Nico, we know the deal...he needs to stay healthy...because we've gotten some teases as to what he can be, but then comes an injury, and he hasn't yet shown the ability to pick up right away from where he left off when he's able to get back on the ice.  But if he does indeed do that and it all comes together...and Couturier in Year 3 or 4 of his deal is no longer productive (some guys do see that happen, especially a guy like Couturier who already has nearly 700 regular season games under his belt), then the apparent disparity shown above won't mean a whole lot.  Basically just a way of saying that what looks like a "win" for the Flyers on 8/26/2022 won't necessarily be one down the line.

Even with injuries, Nico hasn't shown to be more than a 50ish points a season player without a Hall-type player.  Would a guy like Tatar help Nico reach that next level in his fifth season?

Is there really a bigger likelihood of Nico improving and Couturier falling off a cliff during these deals?  I would say the chances are about equal since I do not own a crystal ball.

[DevsMan84]

9 hours ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

You're looking into what I posted more deeply than I intended...I wasn't trying to prop up analytics.  More wondering aloud what kind of offensive player Nico can be...is he a 50-60 point guy per 82 GP, or a 70+ point guy per 82 GP?  I only call them "glamour" (or quick-glance) numbers because they're often the easiest and most accessible to check (and the ones that fans universally can understand), but by themselves don't always tell the whole story...but many people do see them and judge a player's worth almost solely by them. 

The biggest defense of paying Nico what he is was that he was great on both sides of the puck.  However, the same thing can be said about Couturier and he has the hardware to prove it.

At this point, the glamour numbers mean more than anything when it comes to their respective deals.

[SterioDesign]

beyond all the obvious stuff, it's additionally a bummer that covid really fvcked last season in many leagues. I should have been able to watch Mercer play many times around here but because of covid the Quebec teams didnt come to play in the maritimes provinces at all. 

I assume if he's not making the NHL roster that he'll be in the AHL next season

[Guadana]

Why you didn’t watch him in Quebec league? 30 games is pretty enough amount.