2017-2018 Out of Town Thread

[Nicomo]

Lol at the Sens ending the Panthers streak. Hopefully when these games start bunching up on them they run out of gas. 

[jagknife]

56 minutes ago, Nicomo said:

Does Fluery have a legitimate shot at 691?

He’s 33 now. Say Vegas by some miracle can keep their team together this summer and for a little while, he’d need over 6 more years of 40 wins alone to get to just 640. He’d have to stay incredibly healthy and play into his mid 40s I think.

while I was watching the game I had a chuckle thinking back to when Rangers fans thought Lundqvist was going to easily destroy marty’s records

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

2 hours ago, Nicomo said:

Let’s see if he can stay healthy. One thing I don’t see mentioned enough is Nico being the only Devil to play in every single game thus far. As much as he gets knocked around it’s pretty impressive. 

Again, I was never comparing him to Nico.  I was just pointing out that things have started to click for Patrick after a very slow start.  I've also mentioned the fact that Nico's played in every game this season a number of times...for a kid his age and his size, that in itself is an impressive feat...but what's just as impressive is that he's just about always looked like he's belonged.  It's not like at any point any of us said "Man, Nico could benefit from some seasoning at Bingo."

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Can't ask for much more help than the Devils got yesterday.  With the Caps' win, first place in the Metro is pretty much officially toast now for the Devils, but we all knew it was headed that way anyway.  Devils can still finish anywhere from second to the WC2 spot...still think they probably nab the WC1 berth when all's said and done...Columbus is hot at the moment, but it wouldn't surprise me to see them cool off again.  And Florida had to go on a hell of a run (15-4-1) just to get into the conversation...lots of credit to them for doing that, but their problem is that their work isn't done yet...even now they can't afford a four or five game slump.

Edited March 13, 2018 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[Chimaira_Devil_#9]

As Jose Mourinho once said "it's better to have points on the board than games in hand, because having games does not mean points" 

[BlueSkirt]

6 hours ago, Nicomo said:

Does Fluery have a legitimate shot at 691?

Fleury wont even reach 591, as he does not play enough games to get enough wins.  Even if he somehow averaged 30 wins per season from here on out,  he would still have to play into his 40s just to reach 600.

[Nicomo]

20 minutes ago, BlueSkirt said:

Fleury wont even reach 591, as he does not play enough games to get enough wins.  Even if he somehow averaged 30 wins per season from here on out,  he would still have to play into his 40s just to reach 600.

Yeah, when you actually break down the numbers the record seems pretty safe. 

[Steven M.]

6 hours ago, Nicomo said:

Lol at the Sens ending the Panthers streak. Hopefully when these games start bunching up on them they run out of gas. 

They still have to play Boston four times. The schedule will not be as favorable to them forever and the hole they put themselves in with the entire beginning of the season might end up being what helps us save ourselves because of games like last night. I was watching that sh!t and almost got as hyped for Duchene's goal as if it was a Devils goal, then the insurance goal a minute later was so nice to see.

fvck MTL but other than that, hard to complain with last night's results. PHI's last minute loss to VGK sets up a good one for Thursday. Hopefully it doesn't go for three points as these games seemingly always do, but either CBJ will beat PHI and (if the Devils take care of business in Vegas) #3 in the MET, WC1, & WC2 can be at 81, 81, 80, or if the Flyers win then we could potentially stay in front of CBJ or if we lose to Vegas remain a point back. Florida will be hosting Boston... hopefully they find a way to lose and a nice little losing streak can take off.

[NJDevs4978]

6 hours ago, jagknife said:

He’s 33 now. Say Vegas by some miracle can keep their team together this summer and for a little while, he’d need over 6 more years of 40 wins alone to get to just 640. He’d have to stay incredibly healthy and play into his mid 40s I think.

while I was watching the game I had a chuckle thinking back to when Rangers fans thought Lundqvist was going to easily destroy marty’s records

Yeah it's gonna be near impossible for anyone to break the record.  Roy's still a solid 2nd a decade after his record was broken, although Fleury 'could' pass him if he stays healthy for a few years which would be remarkable in itself.

To actually approach 700 wins you need generational durability like Marty (playing 65-70 games a year every year for basically fifteen seasons in a row at least) and the luck to be on an upper-echelon team for 95% of your career.  You also have to consider Marty lost two full seasons due to the lockout, you wonder how high the total could have been then

[Steadevils]

Really enjoyed flipping between 3 games last night (only really enjoyed it due to the 2 positive results). I am starting to think the Flyers are the most vulnerable here. They have been extremely hot and cold all year and are in the midst of a cold spell here in March. Granted they could get hot again, but I just have never been impressed when watching them this year. They seem to get blown out a lot, so hopefully that indicates a losers mentality that will spiral here at the end. 

Edited March 13, 2018 by Steadevils

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

8 hours ago, Nicomo said:

Does Fluery have a legitimate shot at 691?

I say let him pass Roy first.  He still has a ways to go just to get there. 

[DevsMan84]

Even if MAF beats Marty's record it will still have an asterisk as MAF played his entire career in the era of no ties.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

9 minutes ago, DevsMan84 said:

Even if MAF beats Marty's record it will still have an asterisk as MAF played his entire career in the era of no ties.

Never going to happen.  But if he can stay healthy and avoid decline in the next five years or so, he has a shot at Roy...and possibly even 600 wins if all goes very well.  But he's not beating 691. 

[lucifer91]

32 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Never going to happen.  But if he can stay healthy and avoid decline in the next five years or so, he has a shot at Roy...and possibly even 600 wins if all goes very well.  But he's not beating 691. 

I don't have the numbers to prove it on hand, but it feels like coaches are playing their starters less too, Brodeur played what, 78 games the one season.  I don't see starters getting near that number anymore.

[CommonDreads]

1 hour ago, lucifer91 said:

I don't have the numbers to prove it on hand, but it feels like coaches are playing their starters less too, Brodeur played what, 78 games the one season.  I don't see starters getting near that number anymore.

It still happens in rare circumstances, Cam Talbot played in 73 games last year, Holtby played in 73 games in 2015, but those are few and far between.

[Daniel]

You have to think of young goalies that started out playing on good teams if you're going to come up with candidates to surpass 691.  Right now, that's Gibson and Vasilevsky and they could just as likely have a huge decline when most goalies do at around age 30 or so. 

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

3 minutes ago, Daniel said:

You have to think of young goalies that started out playing on good teams if you're going to come up with candidates to surpass 691.  Right now, that's Gibson and Vasilevsky and they could just as likely have a huge decline when most goalies do at around age 30 or so. 

When a goalie actually gets to 600 wins and appears to have something left, that's when I can entertain the idea of Marty's record ever being in jeopardy.  Otherwise there's just way too many ifs.  And like others have noted, I doubt we'll ever see a goalie get the insane kind of workload that Marty did for so many years.  Marty's 691 wins really spoke to three things:  being blessed to spend most of his career on contending teams, incredibly freakish durability, and (sadly) playing a bit longer than he should have...no one would have thought any less of him if he called it quits after 2013 (with 656 wins), but like many have debated many times, his choice, as long as someone was willing to employ him, he had every right to keep playing.   

[Daniel]

4 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

When a goalie actually gets to 600 wins and appears to have something left, that's when I can entertain the idea of Marty's record ever being in jeopardy.  Otherwise there's just way too many ifs.  And like others have noted, I doubt we'll ever see a goalie get the insane kind of workload that Marty did for so many years.  Marty's 691 wins really spoke to three things:  being blessed to spend most of his career on contending teams, incredibly freakish durability, and (sadly) playing a bit longer than he should have...no one would have thought any less of him if he called it quits after 2013 (with 656 wins), but like many have debated many times, his choice, as long as someone was willing to employ him, he had every right to keep playing.   

I don't think the wins are an unbreakable record, although maybe the career shutouts will prove to be. The vast majority of goalies don't play as many games as Marty would in a year, but that was true of other goalies when Marty was playing.  There's nothing about players physically that's going to change that much unless the league legalizes steroids for whatever reason. You already had the 48 win season tied, and I imagine someone will beat that eventually, maybe even this year.

So it's not like the zero percent chance that any pitcher is ever going to break the complete game record (whatever that it is) or career wins.  Or, Marty's career win total is much more likely to be broken than Gretzky's career point record or season point record.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

57 minutes ago, Daniel said:

I don't think the wins are an unbreakable record, although maybe the career shutouts will prove to be. The vast majority of goalies don't play as many games as Marty would in a year, but that was true of other goalies when Marty was playing.  There's nothing about players physically that's going to change that much unless the league legalizes steroids for whatever reason. You already had the 48 win season tied, and I imagine someone will beat that eventually, maybe even this year.

So it's not like the zero percent chance that any pitcher is ever going to break the complete game record (whatever that it is) or career wins.  Or, Marty's career win total is much more likely to be broken than Gretzky's career point record or season point record.

The bolded:  just look at history.  Marty played in 1266 regular season games...only one other player is above 1000, and that was Roy.  Luongo soon will be (he's at 992).  Lundqvist is right at 800.  MAF is at currently 728 GP and 400 wins...for reference, Marty was at 740 with 406 wins at the exact same age, but had just lost an entire season to the 2004-05 lockout (Fleury did too, but had yet to establish himself at that point in his career).  It's that lockout that's helped MAF stay close all this time. 

Another way to look at it:  from 1995-96 to 2011-12 (16 total seasons), Marty played in 1100 games and won 608 (basically would've snagged the all-time GP and all-time wins total in those seasons alone).  Who's ever going to be saddled with such a "compressed" workload like that?  Playing on so many good teams?  Staying that healthy?  Marty averaged 69 GP per season over those seasons, playing in 70+ 12 times...MAF hasn't even played in 69 games in any given year.  No one will ever play in such a volume of games like Marty did. 

Fleury's still on a good pace for the moment, but like I said, let me see just one guy get to 600 wins...looks like MAF will be at least 5 seasons away from that, probably 6.  Because I have yet see someone other than Roy and Marty even get to 500. 

Edited March 13, 2018 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[Daniel]

7 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

The bolded:  just look at history.  Marty played in 1266 regular season games...only one other player is above 1000, and that was Roy.  Luongo soon will be (he's at 992).  Lundqvist is right at 800.  MAF is at currently 728 GP and 400 wins...for reference, Marty was at 740 with 406 wins at the exact same age, but had just lost an entire season to the 2004-05 lockout (Fleury did too, but had yet to establish himself at that point in his career).  It's that lockout that's helped MAF stay close all this time. 

Another way to look at it:  from 1995-96 to 2011-12 (16 total seasons), Marty played in 1100 games and won 608.  Who's ever going to be saddled such a "compressed" workload like that?  Playing on so many good teams?  Staying that healthy?  Marty averaged 69 GP per season over those seasons, playing in 70+ 12 times...MAF hasn't even played in 69 games in any given year.  No one will ever play in such a volume of games like Marty did. 

Fleury's still on a good pace for the moment, but like I said, let me see just one guy get to 600 wins...looks like MAF will be at least 5 seasons away from that, probably 6.  Because I have yet see someone other than Roy and Marty even get to 500. 

There's nothing that fundamentally different about how the game is played or what players are like physically than was the case during Marty's career.  Marty was never some amazing physical specimen, and as people have said, there are still goalies that play more than 70 games a year.  So it's not beyond the realm of possiblity that someone could break his wins record.

It's a lot different if we're talking about Gretzky's season and career point records.  The Art Ross trophy these days goes to someone who, at the absolute most has 120 points.  For any player in our lifetime to even sniff Gretzky's point records, you'd have to drastically change the rules, like make the net a lot bigger, get rid of offsides and call penalties for icing on the penalty kill. 

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

2 minutes ago, Daniel said:

There's nothing that fundamentally different about how the game is played or what players are like physically than was the case during Marty's career.  Marty was never some amazing physical specimen, and as people have said, there are still goalies that play more than 70 games a year.  So it's not beyond the realm of possiblity that someone could break his wins record.

It's a lot different if we're talking about Gretzky's season and career point records.  The Art Ross trophy these days goes to someone who, at the absolute most has 120 points.  For any player in our lifetime to even sniff Gretzky's point records, you'd have to drastically change the rules, like make the net a lot bigger, get rid of offsides and call penalties for icing on the penalty kill. 

They'll never play 1100 games over 16 seasons (I just added onto this in my previous post...in just those 16 seasons alone Marty would've held the all-time GP and all-time wins record), with almost every team they're on being anywhere from competitive to championship.  I don't think you realize how much had to go right for Marty to pile up so many wins.  There's a reason no one is even close...hell, no one is even close to Roy, as far as wins goes.  Does look like Luongo is going to finish his career with the second-most GP when he retires though.  And has a reasonable shot to bag 500+ wins. 

One thing is very fundamentally different:  the salary cap.  Much of what Marty accomplished during those 1100 games came prior to the cap.    

[Daniel]

Just now, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

They'll never play 1100 games over 16 seasons (I just added onto this in my previous post...in just those 16 seasons alone Marty would've held the all-time GP and all-time wins record), with almost every team they're on being anywhere from competitive to championship.  I don't think you realize how much had to go right for Marty to pile up so many wins.  There's a reason no one is even close...hell, no one is even close to Roy, as far as wins goes.  Does look like Luongo is going to finish his career with the second-most GP when he retires though.  And has a reasonable shot to bag 500+ wins. 

One thing is very fundamentally different:  the salary cap.  Much of what Marty accomplished during those 1100 games came prior to the cap.    

Marty had some of his most productive years during the salary cap era.  It wasn't like Marty was playing on super teams that were able to horde the league's best players via free agency.  And if a team plays its cards correctly, it can keep enough of its best players during their prime so that you don't have to break things up shortly after the team gets good.

Right now, there's no goalie you can point to and say has a realistic chance.  But there are maybe one or two that have a plausible chance, which is a lot more than you can say about the truly unbreakable records.

[mfitz804]

For someone to challenge the record, they would likely have to:

Play 70+ games a season for at least half of their career (Brodeur did it 12 times in 19 years, taking out the 4 games in 91-92 and the 7 for the Blues in 14-15).

Play for a team that is essentially a "dynasty", winning enough games to win Conference championships and Cups for a long period of time

Stay healthy. You have to assume that to win 692, a goalie would have to play way more than 1,000 games. That has happened exactly twice in history, with the third to be Luongo later this year.

Roy won 551 of 1029 (53.5%); Brodeur won 691 of 1266 (54.6%). Luongo currently has 467 in 992 games (47.1%). Luongo will be 39 in a couple of weeks; to win 47.1% of his games and get to 691 wins, he'd need to play over 450 more games, which at age 39 doesn't seem likely. 

Fleury is interesting. He's won 375 out of 691 games (54.2%). That means he'd need somewhere around 585 more games. So he'd have to exceed Brodeur's games played for a career record in order to do it.  At 60 games a season, that would be just under 10 seasons. He's currently played 14 years, the idea of him getting to 24 seems far fetched, especially where he is 33 years old already. Its not impossible though. But he's not likely to play to age 43, and even if he did, not likely to play 60 games a year and even if he did, its not likely he'd continue to play at a level where he could win 54.2% of them. 

You do have some younger guys like Holtby, who wins 62% of his games, but thats through 355. At that pace he could do it in 1120 games. So basically he'd have to play another 13 years at the same effectiveness to come close. I suppose if he stays healthy he could do it. But thats a loooong way to go...

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

1 hour ago, Daniel said:

Marty had some of his most productive years during the salary cap era.  It wasn't like Marty was playing on super teams that were able to horde the league's best players via free agency.  And if a team plays its cards correctly, it can keep enough of its best players during their prime so that you don't have to break things up shortly after the team gets good.

Right now, there's no goalie you can point to and say has a realistic chance.  But there are maybe one or two that have a plausible chance, which is a lot more than you can say about the truly unbreakable records.

The problem is you don't know who really has a plausible chance until someone gets very close (by that I'd say within 50 wins of Marty, though I'll settle for cracking 600 as a "getting close" landmark)...it's just such a wild card how much any given player has left once he reaches his mid-to-late 30s. 

12 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

For someone to challenge the record, they would likely have to:

Play 70+ games a season for at least half of their career (Brodeur did it 12 times in 19 years, taking out the 4 games in 91-92 and the 7 for the Blues in 14-15).

Play for a team that is essentially a "dynasty", winning enough games to win Conference championships and Cups for a long period of time

Stay healthy. You have to assume that to win 692, a goalie would have to play way more than 1,000 games. That has happened exactly twice in history, with the third to be Luongo later this year.

Roy won 551 of 1029 (53.5%); Brodeur won 691 of 1266 (54.6%). Luongo currently has 467 in 992 games (47.1%). Luongo will be 39 in a couple of weeks; to win 47.1% of his games and get to 691 wins, he'd need to play over 450 more games, which at age 39 doesn't seem likely. 

Fleury is interesting. He's won 375 out of 691 games (54.2%). That means he'd need somewhere around 585 more games. So he'd have to exceed Brodeur's games played for a career record in order to do it.  At 60 games a season, that would be just under 10 seasons. He's currently played 14 years, the idea of him getting to 24 seems far fetched, especially where he is 33 years old already. Its not impossible though. But he's not likely to play to age 43, and even if he did, not likely to play 60 games a year and even if he did, its not likely he'd continue to play at a level where he could win 54.2% of them. 

You do have some younger guys like Holtby, who wins 62% of his games, but thats through 355. At that pace he could do it in 1120 games. So basically he'd have to play another 13 years at the same effectiveness to come close. I suppose if he stays healthy he could do it. But thats a loooong way to go...

As far as Fleury, Lundqvist, and Luongo go, I think they're interesting...as far as passing Roy goes.  I can see at least one of them managing that (my money's on Fleury more than the other two, as he's got a lot of time on his side...Luongo just seems like he's too old, and Lundqvist ideally will start seeing a reduced workload, especially if Shestyorkin starts pushing him)...at the very least, I think Fleury and Luongo have a solid shot at 520+ career wins (I don't see Lundqvist quite making it to 500...just think he's going to run out of steam by the 2020-21 season, at right about 480-490 wins).  But suffice to say that the 3, 4, and 5 slots of the Top 5 on the all-time leader board are going to look a bit different once Fleury, Lundqvist, and Luongo retire.   

Those are the only actives that I can even consider at this point. 

[Daniel]

3 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

The problem is you don't know who really has a plausible chance until someone gets very close (by that I'd say within 50 wins of Marty, though I'll settle for cracking 600 as a "getting close" landmark)...it's just such a wild card how much any given player has left once he reaches his mid-to-late 30s. 

 

By plausible, I mean that there are goalies every year that play as many games in a season as Marty would, and there's nothing that special about Marty physically that made him uniquely able to handle that playing load year after year.  So  a great goaltender that comes into the league under the right circumstances could do it, even if we can't identify anyone now.  As I said, someone will likely break Marty's and Holtby's season win record.

Regarding point totals, the best scoring forwards in the league are more than 100 points off of what Gretzky did in his best year, and more than fifty points off of what he put up as a thirty year old.   I don't care how good some player we haven't heard yet might be, it is not plausible that there will be anyone who will sniff Gretzky's career totals unless there are several drastic rule changes that favor offense.