GDT - Devils vs Flyers 11/1/19 7:00 MSG+ 2

[Triumph]

18 minutes ago, Devilsfan118 said:

Boy oh boy am I getting sick of hearing about advanced stats with respect to Gusev.  The cult of blind followers seems to grow day by day.

Listen, he hasn't been great.  But how can you even pretend he's been put in a position to succeed?  This team is fvcking trash - put him on Zacha's or Nico's wing, give him 15-20 games where he's averaging 15+ minutes of TOI, and see where he's at.  If after that point he's still looking just awful out there - fine.  Declare it a total loss and move on.

But pretending his advanced stats mean anything when the sample size is insignificant and he's continually been put in positions in which he's certain to fail (read: majority defensive zone starts, 3rd/4th line TOI) is disingenuous at best.  He averaged 17 minutes of TOI in the KHL - do you understand how difficult it must be for him to get his game going while getting only a handful of shifts a period?

I'll let you take a guess which player the following gamelog belongs to - the Tampa game gives it away:

Outside of the most recent game - how can you in good conscience tell me this guy deserves 2nd line minutes?

Simmonds should be riding the 4th line instead of the fvcking AHL fodder have dressing right now - but Hynes doesn't have the stones to do it.

Hynes would have to be a clueless dummy to start with Hall on the ice and give fans the opportunity to target him.

So, that said.. probably.

He hasn't been great?  Did you hear what I said in that post?  LAST IN THE LEAGUE.  He's unplayably bad right now.  He has no burst, he's lost in the neutral zone, he tries to deke too much at the blueline, and he doesn't have any idea what to do in the defensive zone.  He's made some nice stickchecks along the way and he's got dynamite offensive skills when he can use them.  This isn't a guy who's playing okay but not playing to his potential.  He is playing as one of the absolute worst players in the league right now.  The idea of saddling Nico or Zacha with a guy playing this bad for 15-20 games is laughable, and is especially laughable when you all freak the fvck out at one loss.  The Devils had their best overall game without him in the lineup and they should continue that way.  Right now Gusev needs two forwards to babysit him and the Devils can't afford that, they don't have enough guys going well to do that.

Wayne Simmonds has 20 shots on goal the last 4 games and while those aren't all the best shots, he's playing fine and pucks will go in for him soon.  Nikita Gusev, in his 9 games at even strength, has been on the ice for 39 shots on goal by the Devils.  The Devils' biggest problem so far has been generating offense, and the trouble so far with Gusev is that he doesn't generate offense.  

Edited November 1, 2019 by Triumph

[lazer]

silent treatment for hall when he has the puck would be funny.

being ignored shows less respect than being hated.

dad took us to games when we were kids in the 80s and the toronto maple leafs looked like giant vikings on skates...then we were at 2003 cup final and its hard to remember but still a great memory he gave us.

LGD!

 

[dmann422]

got no problem with sitting gusev again, defense and goaltending is our weakness and he helps with neither.

[Devilsfan118]

32 minutes ago, Triumph said:

He hasn't been great?  Did you hear what I said in that post?  LAST IN THE LEAGUE.  He's unplayably bad right now.  He has no burst, he's lost in the neutral zone, he tries to deke too much at the blueline, and he doesn't have any idea what to do in the defensive zone.  He's made some nice stickchecks along the way and he's got dynamite offensive skills when he can use them.  This isn't a guy who's playing okay but not playing to his potential.  He is playing as one of the absolute worst players in the league right now.  The idea of saddling Nico or Zacha with a guy playing this bad for 15-20 games is laughable, and is especially laughable when you all freak the fvck out at one loss.  The Devils had their best overall game without him in the lineup and they should continue that way.  Right now Gusev needs two forwards to babysit him and the Devils can't afford that, they don't have enough guys going well to do that.

Wayne Simmonds has 20 shots on goal the last 4 games and while those aren't all the best shots, he's playing fine and pucks will go in for him soon.  Nikita Gusev, in his 9 games at even strength, has been on the ice for 39 shots on goal by the Devils.  The Devils' biggest problem so far has been generating offense, and the trouble so far with Gusev is that he doesn't generate offense.  

Last in which mythical statistics?  Expected assists per goalie save her hit?  How can you cling to these advanced stats when he's starting like 63% of his shifts in his own zone?  Especially when the Devils, as a team, win ~47% of their draws?  You of all people should understand the impact that would have on his metrics.  What the fvck are you expecting from him when he's getting put out there in a role more fit for Brian Boyle, who, by the way, started 57% of his shifts in the D-zone last year for reference.

Deking at the blue line, getting a little too fancy in the transition game - these can be corrected by coaching.  You're not fixing this by stashing him in the press box with a guy who last played in a vastly different NHL.  You're also probably not getting corrective coaching from our pathetic head coach and his lackluster staff, granted.

'Saddling' a guy like Nico with an offensive dynamo like Gusev might actually get Nico on the scoresheet once in a while - but who wants that, right?  Zacha also might benefit from playing with a guy that could actually feed him a pass once in a while.. not every single player in the NHL needs to be your prototypical two-way forward.  This isn't your father's NHL.

I hope as much as the next guy that Simmonds gest it going - but his performance thus far has not warranted this continued blind support.  "Pucks will go in for him soon" - that's all well and good, but you're going to sit here and tell me with a straight face that if Gusev was put in Simmonds' positions he wouldn't be performing at least as well?  I find that very hard to believe.

Lastly, to the bolded.. wh.. what?  Are we watching the same team?

Edited November 1, 2019 by Devilsfan118

[Triumph]

 

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Last in which mythical statistics?  Expected assists per goalie save her hit?  How can you cling to these advanced stats when he's starting like 63% of his shifts in his own zone?  Especially when the Devils, as a team, win ~47% of their draws?  You of all people should understand the impact that would have on his metrics.  What the fvck are you expecting from him when he's getting put out there in a role more fit for Brian Boyle, who, by the way, started 57% of his shifts in the D-zone last year for reference.

 

This is almost meaningless because as people who study this stuff know, most shifts in the NHL begin on the fly.  Part of the issue with measuring this is that shifts that begin on the fly and then end up in the defensive zone, with a defensive zone faceoff, where the team doesn't change their lines - that counts as a defensive zone start.   Gusev, in Natural Stat Trick's reckoning, is being given credit for being on the ice for 20 offensive zone faceoffs and 28 defensive zone faceoffs at 5 on 5.  How much different do you think his numbers look if those are reversed?  If the answer isn't 'not very much at all', you're missing something about hockey - the difference between the best and worst faceoff man is 2 wins in 10 and even a faceoff win or loss doesn't necessarily result in possession.

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Deking at the blue line, getting a little too fancy in the transition game - these can be corrected by coaching.  You're not fixing this by stashing him in the press box with a guy who last played in a vastly different NHL.  You're also probably not getting corrective coaching from our pathetic head coach and his lackluster staff, granted.

 

They tried.  For 9 games.  Patrik Elias is one of the smartest players to ever play the game, and the game has moved more in his direction than away from it.

 

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'Saddling' a guy like Nico with an offensive dynamo like Gusev might actually get Nico on the scoresheet once in a while - but who wants that, right?  Zacha also might benefit from playing with a guy that could actually feed him a pass once in a while.. not every single player in the NHL needs to be your prototypical two-way forward.  This isn't your father's NHL.

 

This isn't your father's NHL applies much more to Taylor Hall, a player who drives play but still makes many high-risk plays.  Gusev is losing the territorial battle absurdly.  He's not getting he and his linemates enough shots to help these players.  A player cannot lose the territorial battle this badly and be an effective player.  A guy like prime Kovalchuk who lost it somewhat but who made up for it by being a an incredible shooter - that can be justified.  This cannot be.

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I hope as much as the next guy that Simmonds gest it going - but his performance thus far has not warranted this continued blind support.  "Pucks will go in for him soon" - that's all well and good, but you're going to sit here and tell me with a straight face that if Gusev was put in Simmonds' positions he wouldn't be performing at least as well?  I find that very hard to believe.

 

You honestly think that the difference between Gusev and Simmonds' season so far is who they're playing with?  Gusev has dragged every single player he's played with down.  Everyone is worse with him.  So sure, if you want to drag Coleman and Zajac down for the sake of propping up Gusev, great.  Simmonds has 34 shots on goal in 10 games.  He's going to start scoring.  This is basic stuff.  If you're going to cite zone starts and whatnot, you've got to at least be aware that bad streaks happen to everybody, and that while low percentage shooters will, by necessity, experience more of them, historically Simmonds isn't a low-percentage shooter.  The Devils are getting 60% of the shots with Simmonds on the ice.  This is what they need to succeed.

 

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Lastly, to the bolded.. wh.. what?  Are we watching the same team?

 

Given what I just responded to here, probably not.  Yeah, the goalies are terrible.  But the Devils' offense has been atrocious.  They've played good defense the last 3 games and have gotten rewarded with what, 11 full net goals against?  

Edited November 1, 2019 by Triumph

[Satans Hockey]

1 hour ago, Triumph said:

Gusev has been fvcking awful.  There's just no other word to describe how he has played off the puck.  Gusev is last in the league in scoring chances for/against when he's on the ice.  Dead last.  Thankfully, Hynes doesn't give a sh!t about +/-.  Just because Gusev got lucky enough to get the goalie to make stops while he's on the ice doesn't mean that will continue. 

I don't take plus/minus as the only determination of how a player is defensively but if he was THAT much of a defensive liability especially with all the other stats you show he would be way worse then a -1......especially because our goalies can't stop a beach ball. 

[jagknife]

3 hours ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

One question worth asking:  is Hynes making these decisions completely on his own?  This could all be collaborative for all we know (Shero and Fitz having considerable input). 

If it is, then in my humble opinion, they have no confidence in the coach's decisions. First Fitz comes to the bench, now he's being told who to dress and who to not to, yikes....

[Triumph]

12 minutes ago, Satans Hockey said:

I don't take plus/minus as the only determination of how a player is defensively but if he was THAT much of a defensive liability especially with all the other stats you show he would be way worse then a -1......especially because our goalies can't stop a beach ball. 

Goalies have saved 89.1% of the shots taken with him on the ice.  That's very poor, but for the Devils that's probably above-average.  The real difference is that about 1 in 6 Devils' shots on goal has gone in with Gusev on the ice and the NHL average is closer to 1 in 11 shots.  That cannot continue - even the top players over the last 3 years can't beat 1 in 9. 

Gusev is horrendous defensively.

Edited November 1, 2019 by Triumph

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

8 minutes ago, jagknife said:

If it is, then in my humble opinion, they have no confidence in the coach's decisions. First Fitz comes to the bench, now he's being told who to dress and who to not to, yikes....

I'm sure there's gotta be some degree of collaboration with most organizations...I'm just wondering aloud how much (and if Hynes' input has been lessened). 

[jagknife]

19 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

I'm sure there's gotta be some degree of collaboration with most organizations...I'm just wondering aloud how much (and if Hynes' input has been lessened). 

Agreed whole heartedly

[T0asterleav1ns]

I don't really give a sh!t about Gusev's defense....

When you recruit the top player in the world not playing in the NHL, who's entire claim to fame is offense, and then bench him because he doesn't play good defense there is some head scrathng stuff going on. We have enogh defensively sound fowards on this team where it should not be a problem.

 

Did anyone give a ***** about Pavel Bure's defense? Or  Ovechkin's? I think the offensive skills Gusev brings to the table are worth the lineup headache of having to pair him with defensively responsible forwards. 

[EdgeControl]

here are my lines, where is goose needed?

Hall Hughes Palms

Zacha Nico Bratt

Simmonds Zajac Pickles

dont give a dam

[T0asterleav1ns]

I'd rather balance out the bottom two lines with some skill and that leaves plenty of room for Gusev. 

[jagknife]

24 minutes ago, Triumph said:

Goalies have saved 89.1% of the shots taken with him on the ice.  That's very poor, but for the Devils that's probably above-average.  The real difference is that about 1 in 6 Devils' shots on goal has gone in with Gusev on the ice and the NHL average is closer to 1 in 11 shots.  That cannot continue - even the top players over the last 3 years can't beat 1 in 9. 

Gusev is horrendous defensively.

So Gusev is the sole reason 1 in 6 go in? I know I'm over simplifying the hell out of it Tri, but we didn't get Goose for his defensive prowess. We weren't expecting a Toews or Kopitar out of him. We needed scoring, he's generating chances, and he's only been in the NHL for 9 games. Our goalies have been abysmal, our defense doesn't adjust, and how much of the weight should his linemates face for that 1 in 6 stat as well?

No, benching Gusev isn't going to cost us games/the season, nor would benching Boqvist, but having these guys on the bench and not getting game experience isn't going to help their development or get better at the things in the game they need to. Practice can only do so much.

[Triumph]

4 minutes ago, Toasterleavins said:

I don't really give a sh!t about Gusev's defense....

When you recruit the top player in the world not playing in the NHL, who's entire claim to fame is offense, and then bench him because he doesn't play good defense there is some head scrathng stuff going on. We have enogh defensively sound fowards on this team where it should not be a problem.

 

Did anyone give a ***** about Pavel Bure's defense? Or  Ovechkin's? I think the offensive skills Gusev brings to the table are worth the lineup headache of having to pair him with defensively responsible forwards. 

This is the problem with viewing hockey as a game with offense and defense.  Alex Ovechkin wasn't always the strongest player in his own zone, but guess what - he was phenomenal at the other end.   According to hockey-reference, the Capitals have attempted around 1900 more shots than their opposition with him on the ice 5 on 5 since 2007-08.  He's been on a good team so that helps but he's always been incredible at finding a way to get the puck on the net.

The problem with Gusev isn't 'defense' - it's that the puck is just not in the offensive end enough when he is on the ice.  The Devils don't generate enough shots and chances when he is on the ice.  Consequently, he isn't a good offensive player.  Even though he has fantastic offensive skills, he doesn't get to use them.  And no, starting him in the offensive zone isn't going to help much.

[Triumph]

3 minutes ago, jagknife said:

So Gusev is the sole reason 1 in 6 go in? I know I'm over simplifying the hell out of it Tri, but we didn't get Goose for his defensive prowess. We weren't expecting a Toews or Kopitar out of him. We needed scoring, he's generating chances, and he's only been in the NHL for 9 games. Our goalies have been abysmal, our defense doesn't adjust, and how much of the weight should his linemates face for that 1 in 6 stat as well?

No, benching Gusev isn't going to cost us games/the season, nor would benching Boqvist, but having these guys on the bench and not getting game experience isn't going to help their development or get better at the things in the game they need to. Practice can only do so much.

You've misread what I posted.  The Devils are shooting 16% with Gusev on the ice.  That's unsustainable.  No one does that well.  That's the only reason why his +/- is decent - the puck has happened to go in at an abnormal rate.  

Gusev isn't generating chances.  That's just it.  That's why he's sitting out.

[EdgeControl]

3 minutes ago, Toasterleavins said:

I'd rather balance out the bottom two lines with some skill and that leaves plenty of room for Gusev. 

3rd line is a fairly skilled checking line , not really a fit for goose.. you can stick him on the 4th right now.. honestly I dont see him improving 1 thru 3 at this point

[DevsMan84]

IIRC, when we signed Gusev, many places, including here, said that he would likely be a mess defensively.  Why this is a shock is beyond me.

I wasn't happy that he was sat the last game but figured he would be in the next.  Well he is out again and while we had our best offensive game without him in the lineup, we also didn't have a good defensive game without him either.

At this point I really don't understand at this point why the Devils decided to pay a guy $4.5M only to scratch him for playing essentially how he was advertised?  If he has great offensive skills but doesn't get to use them due to limited TOI, then it seems like the coaching staff is setting him up to fail.

Gusev hasn't played great, but he isn't the reason why we are losing games.

[Devilsfan118]

56 minutes ago, Triumph said:

This is almost meaningless because as people who study this stuff know, most shifts in the NHL begin on the fly.  Part of the issue with measuring this is that shifts that begin on the fly and then end up in the defensive zone, with a defensive zone faceoff, where the team doesn't change their lines - that counts as a defensive zone start.   Gusev, in Natural Stat Trick's reckoning, is being given credit for being on the ice for 20 offensive zone faceoffs and 28 defensive zone faceoffs at 5 on 5.  How much different do you think his numbers look if those are reversed?  If the answer isn't 'not very much at all', you're missing something about hockey - the difference between the best and worst faceoff man is 2 wins in 10 and even a faceoff win or loss doesn't necessarily result in possession.

You're right that I by no means study these stats, but bud - if we roll with your numbers, he's still starting 41% of his shifts in the offensive zone.  I don't quite understand how you're going to argue that's not poor utilization for an offensive guy that needs sheltered minutes while he figures out the NHL game.  

Would his numbers be vastly different in that circumstance?  Eh, probably not - but he likely wouldn't be "LAST IN THE LEAGUE" and giving folks conniptions. 

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This isn't your father's NHL applies much more to Taylor Hall, a player who drives play but still makes many high-risk plays.  Gusev is losing the territorial battle absurdly.  He's not getting he and his linemates enough shots to help these players.  A player cannot lose the territorial battle this badly and be an effective player.  A guy like prime Kovalchuk who lost it somewhat but who made up for it by being a an incredible shooter - that can be justified.  This cannot be.

Again, see point 1.  He needs to be put in positions that cater to him for now while he figures it out.  We're going to disagree on how much of an impact proper regular usage would have his possession metrics.

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You honestly think that the difference between Gusev and Simmonds' season so far is who they're playing with?  Gusev has dragged every single player he's played with down.  Everyone is worse with him.  So sure, if you want to drag Coleman and Zajac down for the sake of propping up Gusev, great.  Simmonds has 34 shots on goal in 10 games.  He's going to start scoring.  This is basic stuff.  If you're going to cite zone starts and whatnot, you've got to at least be aware that bad streaks happen to everybody, and that while low percentage shooters will, by necessity, experience more of them, historically Simmonds isn't a low-percentage shooter.  The Devils are getting 60% of the shots with Simmonds on the ice.  This is what they need to succeed.

The difference is not only linemates, but situationally and, frankly, their volume of work.  I absolutely think that makes a significant difference.  

As far as Simmonds' shooting luck (or lackthereof) - what would you expect from him at this point?  4-5 goals on 34 shots based on his career average?  Probably closer to 3-4 based on more recent results, I'm guessing?  Dude I've got something to tell you: 

Spoiler

Gusev has three goals already in a much more limited role

It's looking more and more to me that Simmonds is done-zo as far as being a goal scorer in this league - but we shall see.  Sometimes it's more than a short term streak and moreso a long term trend..

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Given what I just responded to here, probably not.  Yeah, the goalies are terrible.  But the Devils' offense has been atrocious.  They've played good defense the last 3 games and have gotten rewarded with what, 11 full net goals against?

Enlighten me, oh wise one, how putting the puck in the net is the major problem with this team when the Devils are middle of the pack in goals for per game but second to last in goals surrendered per game.

I'm sure you'll come up with some convoluted response - I know you well enough to know that .  But I'm genuinely curious to see what you come back with.

Edited November 1, 2019 by Devilsfan118
Edit: I goofed the quotes up

[Triumph]

You're right that I by no means study these stats, but bud - if we roll with your numbers, he's still starting 41% of his shifts in the offensive zone.  I don't quite understand how you're going to argue that's not poor utilization for an offensive guy that needs sheltered minutes while he figures out the NHL game.  Would his numbers be vastly different in that circumstance?  Eh, probably not - but he likely wouldn't be "LAST IN THE LEAGUE" and giving folks conniptions. 

Why do we assume that offense comes from faceoffs or starting in the offensive zone?  How many goals are scored directly off faceoffs a year per team?  Within 10 seconds of a faceoff?  It's just not very many.  Offense isn't generated this way, generally.  Yeah, you get the puck closer to the opposition's net, but all of their defenders are between your guys and the goal.  

I tried to explain that Gusev's very incompetence is partially causing the faceoff woes you cite above.  According to Natural Stat Trick, Gusev has started 10 shifts with an offensive zone faceoff and 10 with a defensive zone faceoff.  He's started 22 with a ntural zone faceoff and 65 on the fly.  So that means that the Devils moving backwards constantly when he's on the ice is partially responsible for the faceoff numbers you cite.

 

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Again, see point 1.  He needs to be put in positions that cater to him for now while he figures it out.  We're going to disagree on how much of an impact proper regular usage would have his possession metrics.

 

This isn't how the NHL works.  It would be a lot simpler if it did, though.

 

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The difference is not only linemates, but situationally and, frankly, their volume of work.  I absolutely think that makes a significant difference.  As far as Simmonds' shooting luck (or lackthereof) - what would you expect from him at this point?  4-5 goals on 34 shots based on his career average?  Probably closer to 3-4 based on more recent results, I'm guessing?  Dude I've got something to tell you: 

  Reveal hidden contents

I don't care about the past.  The past is done.  What I care about is the future - Simmonds' results suggest a player who is playing well who is snakebit, Gusev's results suggest a player who is playing poorly who was lucky.  

 

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How is offense the problem with the Devils

 

Sorry that the quote function on this board is now trash and I had to paraphrase this, but the Devils do not generate enough shots for a sustainable offense.  Like I said, I don't care about the past.  It's nice that the Devils have scored some goals early on despite their shot totals, but they're sixth from the bottom in shots/60 at even strength and that's where their offense will likely end up if they can't manage to generate more.  Getting Gusev out of there is definitely a help, and Taylor Hall returning to form would also help.  

Edited November 1, 2019 by Triumph

[Satans Hockey]

45 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

I'm sure there's gotta be some degree of collaboration with most organizations...I'm just wondering aloud how much (and if Hynes' input has been lessened). 

If Shero is to believed Hynes "requested" Fitz to help out and he did it because he's a team player...... Now I don't believe Shero simply because he's not going to come out and say I don't trust the coaching staff and if Hynes did request it thst means he doesn't trust in Naz anymore and he's not going to come out and say it either. 

Shero even joked on one of the preshows that Lou left an extra pair of skates behind but he wasn't going to do that. (come down and coach like Lou did a few times) 

This whole team is a gong show right now. It's pathetic.

[NJDfan1711]

1 hour ago, Triumph said:

  The Devils' biggest problem so far has been generating offense, and the trouble so far with Gusev is that he doesn't generate offense.  

lol, what?  I was going to respond to the rest of your post to the tune of how I think you're flagrantly exaggerating intangibles in terms of how Gusev is on the ice for shots against and things of that nature, but then when I read the bolded I figured it's not even worth it.  If you honestly think that's been the Devils problem, well then you have serious, SERIOUS issues lol.  Even the dumbest of Devils fans can understand that their problem has been goaltending, defense, then offense, in that order. 

[NJDfan1711]

1 hour ago, Devilsfan118 said:

 

Lastly, to the bolded.. wh.. what?  Are we watching the same team?

I'm glad I'm not the only one who saw that. 

[PacificDevil]

Picking on Gusev and Boqvist for “lack of understanding the North American game” is pure scapegoating when the whole team plays like bunch of sore losers. 

[Neb00rs]

If this board is to continue as a place for high quality hockey discussion, the ubiquitous hostility towards "advanced stats" has to stop. It's 2019, time to come around - the rest of the hockey world is.

The word "analytics" has come to be a pejorative, straying far from it's intended use, meaning "esoteric numbers that don't really mean anything."

Something beautiful has happened with the game in the past decade or so - and that is that smart people, numbers people, academically-minded people have found interest in applying their skills and knowledge to the game of hockey. The result is that we now are starting to build out a significant collection of data and methods that have helped the NHL (and other) organizations understand what is happening on the ice in a more accurate way than primitive stats have long allowed.

You might not like it, but there are ways to test how good all of these "advanced stats" are at predicting future success - we know they're not perfect, but they are a lot better than sticking with things like +/- which we know is not a great predictor of future performance. That's why so many teams are building "analytics" departments - because there are ways to interpret data in ways there wasn't before...verifiably better ways

And right now, this board, which was once a paragon of high-level hockey discussion is turning into a mob full of angry Devils fans who, every time any "new" stat they're not comfortable with is brought up, they go on the attack to minimize the importance of said stat and then go further on to launch into personal tirades against the players, coaches, and beat reporters involved with the team. Don't get me wrong, there's room to criticize all of these stats - but no one is doing so in a well-founded or substantive way. It's all just blind rejection.

I'm not an advanced hockey stats expert. But the reason I'm trying to adapt to the new hockey world is because I can see its legitimacy and importance. These numbers are not that hard to get either - one can learn them in fairly short order. I suggest people try to give them a chance. For now, this place is a little harder to be around at times because when one tries to begin a substantive metrics-based discussion on the board, that person has to spend so much time defending themselves on the very legitimacy of the metrics to begin with, that no deeper conversation can ever get started.

Edited November 1, 2019 by Neb00rs