Alexander Holtz

[nessus]

Alex is one of the more polarizing players around here. It seems like a bunch of us really like him and feel like he has a good NHL future ahead of him, while the rest don't see him in this organization's competitive window and want him traded. In this thread, I wanted to make an argument for Holtz's value to the New Jersey Devils.

To start, I think it's important to make note of what Holtz is and what he is not. Holtz is not: one of the team's top defensive forwards, an excellent skater, a PKer, a top play driver, or a physical force. Holtz is: a forward with strong offensive instincts, an excellent shot, good work ethic, and underrated passing ability/vision/playmaking.

Holtz played 11:38 per game this season, which edges out only Nate Bastian, Chris Tierney, and Kurtis MacDermid among regulars in the lineup. And he spent considerable time on the fourth line with the likes of Tierney and Willman. Despite this, Holtz performed pretty well this season from an offensive production standpoint. His stats line of 16 goals, 12 assists, and 28 points may not jump off the page at you, but if you take a deeper look, he did quite well with the poor opportunity he was given.

With 16 goals, Holtz tied Erik Haula for 6th on the team. I looked at some more advanced stats, including only Devils players who had 100 minutes or more of ice time this season (disclaimer: my reference did not include players traded before the deadline, so Toffoli is not accounted for here). This is all at 5 on 5. Holtz ranked 3rd in goals per 60 minutes, 4th in points per 60, and 5th in shots per 60. His Corsi and Fenwick were admittedly not very good at 5 on 5, ranking 19th and 20th, respectively.

In all situations: Holtz ranked 6th in goals/60, shots/60, and points/60 minutes. He was 5th in shot attempts per 60. Among forwards, he was 5th in shot attempts against per 60. He  was 6th among forwards in Corsi and Fenwick. 

These stats of course do not tell the whole story. He has had his share of weaker games, and he certainly would not have been relegated to the 4th line for much of the season if he was looking like a star out there. But the truth of the matter is that even without considering Holtz's poor usage, he consistently finished in the top 6 in multiple offensive metrics. On a team that has Bratt, Jack, Hischier, and Meier, that is quite encouraging.

I would argue that both the coaching staff and management have done a disservice both to Holtz and to the team dating back to last season by publicly criticizing his play, limiting his usage, and consistently scratching him to the point that he needed to ask to be sent to the AHL. Holtz was drafted to be a complimentary piece to a team that was set on centers/play drivers. He really has not been given the opportunity to fill this role with the strange high standard he is held to, which many other young players are not.

Holtz is someone that the Devils should not trade. His value is as low as it likely will ever be. You would hate to see the organization give up on another player who has shown flashes, only to go elsewhere and score 30 goals (e.g. Sharangovich). There will be a time very soon where the Devils will wish they had more cheap home grown talent to help fill out the roster. That's when you wish you had a Holtz or two. It is time for the organization to invest in the player that they chose to draft so early.

[Oglethorpe13]

I personally am not ready to give up on him, but I also realize there are more pressing issues to address. His usage was plagued by the coaching staff, his proper usage was extremely short lived. BUT, with that being said, if he ends up being the piece in a trade that can bring strong and consistent goaltending....I'm prepared to live with that.

[aylbert]

Goaltending is so fickle.
We should absolutely go out and find an established veteran goalie, but I really don't want to sell the farm with multiple high picks and prospects to try to catch a hot goaltender.

I believe Holtz ceiling is a defensive liability, 35ish goal scoring winger...   bench him on the PK, but have him out there early to score the first goal.
It is possible for the Devils to score first.  I've seen it.    And obviously, when we're down by a goal.

Depending on the offer, of course, he can be traded.  He isn't untouchable.   But I would prefer to send a pick out instead of him.

[Nicomo]

13 minutes ago, aylbert said:

Depending on the offer, of course, he can be traded.  He isn't untouchable.  But I would prefer to send a pick out instead of him.

I don’t see any way they can get an established goalie for just a pick(s). Even one in the top 10. It’s probably going to take a pick + prospect + NHL player. So something along the lines of Casey and Holtz/Mercer. 

[MadDog2020]

Holtz is gonna be moved. I think that’s something everyone should just get used to being okay with. 

[RunninWithTheDevil]

9 minutes ago, MadDog2020 said:

Holtz is gonna be moved. I think that’s something everyone should just get used to being okay with. 

I have a feeling it's going to be one of those cases where we move him and he absolutely lights it up on another team

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

17 minutes ago, MadDog2020 said:

Holtz is gonna be moved. I think that’s something everyone should just get used to being okay with. 

 

7 minutes ago, RunninWithTheDevil said:

I have a feeling it's going to be one of those cases where we move him and he absolutely lights it up on another team

Agree with MD2020.

I think Holtz's future in general is still a bit murky.  He has a big shot but it's not terribly accurate, he's a bit slow, and he's still working on improving a deficient all-around game.  I'm not saying that he CAN'T eventually put it together enough to become the sniper we all hoped, more that I don't feel like it's any lock for that to happen.  He did take some steps forward last season, I will absolutely give him that.

@nessus be careful about making a big deal about Sharangovich...his +/- was terrible compared to just about all of his teammates not named Huberdeau.  He benefitted by getting minutes on a bad team where his shortcomings probably would've prevented him from getting the same playing time with a better and deeper team.  He also was helped by a bloated shooting%...he did score 26 goals over his final 56 GP (that's a 38 goal pace over a full season), but on 19.7% shooting; he's a career 14.2% shooter overall.  And Sharangovich fattening up in garbage time games is nothing new...he did that here too. 

I'm far from convinced that he's a perennial 30+ goal scorer from here on out...or that he'll ever have a good enough all-around game to be more than a guy who puts up goals for bad teams.  

[StarDew]

2 hours ago, MadDog2020 said:

Holtz is gonna be moved. I think that’s something everyone should just get used to being okay with. 

Well I am pretty sure he won't end up in Buffalo. 

[StarDew]

I miss Santagovich. 😢 

[MadDog2020]

3 minutes ago, StarDew said:

Well I am pretty sure he won't end up in Buffalo. 

Yeah highly doubtful 🤣

[aylbert]

1 hour ago, StarDew said:

Well I am pretty sure he won't end up in Buffalo. 

Holtz for UPL, the trade is 1 for 1...

Lindy:

[StarDew]

29 minutes ago, aylbert said:

Holtz for UPL, the trade is 1 for 1...

Lindy:

Perfect just perfect! 😆 

[Have Another Donut]

4 hours ago, RunninWithTheDevil said:

I have a feeling it's going to be one of those cases where we move him and he absolutely lights it up on another team

Ha ha-not in the NHL.  He's slow/below ave skater, soft, weak.   A one trick pony-nice shot.  Berube will just love him...😉

Shango -is an actual NHL player and does several things Holtz can't (skate, pk, faceoffs,size).  He will be moved prior to the start of next season.

[Lateralous]

At this point Holtz deserves to go somewhere where he might actually have someone within the organization in his corner.   It was embarrassing the way Fitz and Ruff treated him this year and unless there is some deep dark secret about something he does behind the scenes, none of it made much sense.   

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

12 hours ago, Lateralous said:

At this point Holtz deserves to go somewhere where he might actually have someone within the organization in his corner.   It was embarrassing the way Fitz and Ruff treated him this year and unless there is some deep dark secret about something he does behind the scenes, none of it made much sense.   

My biggest beef is that it’s one thing to give a developing Holtz some tough love here and there…it’s quite another to basically hold NO ONE ELSE to any kind of similar standard.  Smith was given free reign to suck and do Smith things as much as he wanted, and not like others didn’t receive similar treatment.  It was mind-boggingly fvcking INFURIATING.

Edited May 3 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[vincois]

Teams are not going to be clamoring for Holtz. As far as coaches "plaguing" his growth?  He should've again played in Utica & grow his game. He not in training here. None of us know what he does? He has a great shot. I just don't see what he brings to the table. Easily knocked off the puck, loses board battles. And yes, he has been given opportunity. We'll see what happens.

[NJDfan1711]

On 5/1/2024 at 11:21 PM, nessus said:

Alex is one of the more polarizing players around here. It seems like a bunch of us really like him and feel like he has a good NHL future ahead of him, while the rest don't see him in this organization's competitive window and want him traded. In this thread, I wanted to make an argument for Holtz's value to the New Jersey Devils.

To start, I think it's important to make note of what Holtz is and what he is not. Holtz is not: one of the team's top defensive forwards, an excellent skater, a PKer, a top play driver, or a physical force. Holtz is: a forward with strong offensive instincts, an excellent shot, good work ethic, and underrated passing ability/vision/playmaking.

Holtz played 11:38 per game this season, which edges out only Nate Bastian, Chris Tierney, and Kurtis MacDermid among regulars in the lineup. And he spent considerable time on the fourth line with the likes of Tierney and Willman. Despite this, Holtz performed pretty well this season from an offensive production standpoint. His stats line of 16 goals, 12 assists, and 28 points may not jump off the page at you, but if you take a deeper look, he did quite well with the poor opportunity he was given.

With 16 goals, Holtz tied Erik Haula for 6th on the team. I looked at some more advanced stats, including only Devils players who had 100 minutes or more of ice time this season (disclaimer: my reference did not include players traded before the deadline, so Toffoli is not accounted for here). This is all at 5 on 5. Holtz ranked 3rd in goals per 60 minutes, 4th in points per 60, and 5th in shots per 60. His Corsi and Fenwick were admittedly not very good at 5 on 5, ranking 19th and 20th, respectively.

In all situations: Holtz ranked 6th in goals/60, shots/60, and points/60 minutes. He was 5th in shot attempts per 60. Among forwards, he was 5th in shot attempts against per 60. He  was 6th among forwards in Corsi and Fenwick. 

These stats of course do not tell the whole story. He has had his share of weaker games, and he certainly would not have been relegated to the 4th line for much of the season if he was looking like a star out there. But the truth of the matter is that even without considering Holtz's poor usage, he consistently finished in the top 6 in multiple offensive metrics. On a team that has Bratt, Jack, Hischier, and Meier, that is quite encouraging.

I would argue that both the coaching staff and management have done a disservice both to Holtz and to the team dating back to last season by publicly criticizing his play, limiting his usage, and consistently scratching him to the point that he needed to ask to be sent to the AHL. Holtz was drafted to be a complimentary piece to a team that was set on centers/play drivers. He really has not been given the opportunity to fill this role with the strange high standard he is held to, which many other young players are not.

Holtz is someone that the Devils should not trade. His value is as low as it likely will ever be. You would hate to see the organization give up on another player who has shown flashes, only to go elsewhere and score 30 goals (e.g. Sharangovich). There will be a time very soon where the Devils will wish they had more cheap home grown talent to help fill out the roster. That's when you wish you had a Holtz or two. It is time for the organization to invest in the player that they chose to draft so early.

Great summary. I agree with just about all of it.  

I'd like to see Holtz stick around and given another chance to prove he can be a consistent top 6 forward.  Guy is young, and shouldn't cost much. He could/should force Palat to stay in the third line where he belongs, and may even compete with Mercer for a top 6 spot. 

[nessus]

On 5/2/2024 at 10:48 AM, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

 

Agree with MD2020.

I think Holtz's future in general is still a bit murky.  He has a big shot but it's not terribly accurate, he's a bit slow, and he's still working on improving a deficient all-around game.  I'm not saying that he CAN'T eventually put it together enough to become the sniper we all hoped, more that I don't feel like it's any lock for that to happen.  He did take some steps forward last season, I will absolutely give him that.

@nessus be careful about making a big deal about Sharangovich...his +/- was terrible compared to just about all of his teammates not named Huberdeau.  He benefitted by getting minutes on a bad team where his shortcomings probably would've prevented him from getting the same playing time with a better and deeper team.  He also was helped by a bloated shooting%...he did score 26 goals over his final 56 GP (that's a 38 goal pace over a full season), but on 19.7% shooting; he's a career 14.2% shooter overall.  And Sharangovich fattening up in garbage time games is nothing new...he did that here too. 

I'm far from convinced that he's a perennial 30+ goal scorer from here on out...or that he'll ever have a good enough all-around game to be more than a guy who puts up goals for bad teams.  

The Sharangovich comment was not meant to be a direct comparison, and honestly not why I brought this whole discussion up. Still, I don't think you can really argue that Sharangovich had anything but a major improvement since that trade. Again, not faulting Fitz for making that trade at the time. I can't say Shara would have figured it out here, even if we weren't any better than Calgary this season.

The whole point though is that Holtz's 5-on-5 production was among the top on the whole team this season. I don't know about anyone else, but I think this is pretty significant. My impression is that Holtz is being seen as another Zacha or Josefson type of player, with there being potential but major deficiencies holding him back. However, his stats really suggest otherwise - and it isn't just the Corsi/Fenwick that a lot of anti-stats guys don't like. With Holtz's value being so low right now, I would really not want to make a trade where he's just a throw-in piece. And frankly, that's what he likely would be.

 

[RunninWithTheDevil]

 

 

[Nicomo]

1 hour ago, RunninWithTheDevil said:

 

 

Literally every coach…

[devlman]

2 hours ago, RunninWithTheDevil said:

 

 

Yikes. Cmon Holtz get your ass in gear.

I fully expect him to come into camp (if he isn’t part of a trade) on a mission. Anything less will be a red flag. 

[RunninWithTheDevil]

8 minutes ago, devlman said:

Yikes. Cmon Holtz get your ass in gear.

I fully expect him to come into camp (if he isn’t part of a trade) on a mission. Anything less will be a red flag. 

Seems like he's slowly becoming our new 'Zacha'

 

What's a good synonym for "almost"?

[jagknife]

1 hour ago, RunninWithTheDevil said:

Seems like he's slowly becoming our new 'Zacha'

 

What's a good synonym for "almost"?

Ghost. He’s becoming our Swedish Ghost… 

EDIT: and I am a huge defender of him and wholely subscribe to him being screwed by Lindy narrative, but he’s gotta start showing us a lot more next year, it’d make or break time.

Edited May 8 by jagknife

[Puckbuster]

2 hours ago, RunninWithTheDevil said:

Seems like he's slowly becoming our new 'Zacha'

 

What's a good synonym for "almost"?

Zacha is doing well in Boston and the fans like him.  I think the organization failed Zacha and Sharongovich.  I do believe they are failing to develop Holtz too.

[Muevelos]

Nobody likes Holtz, not the people in his own building clearly, the other 31 teams don't care for him, the only ones that see anything in him are us people on the internet. That should say something.