DeBoer "Firing Watch" Thread

[Derlique]

It's not a Conte problem so much as a luck and circumstances one, and maybe a not developing talent correctly once they're here.  Larsson was the consensus best player available at 4 and some argued the best player in the draft.  Whatever the case, it's safe to say that every single team takes him at number 4 that year.  Yet there are holes in his game that his positive attributes don't quite overshadow.  Josefson and probably Tedenby were consensus first round picks, and were taken pretty much where people expected them to go.  (And some have speculated that Lou and Conte were hoping to get Kreider instead of Josefson).  A lot of times though, these people just don't turn into spectacular NHL players.  And Lou and Conte appear to realize that they should lean towards drafting forwards.   It would be nice if they struck gold in those later rounds, but the only reason those players end up being there is because every other team didn't think so highly of them, unless you think there's some sort of game theory that gets played out at the Red Wings draft table, which I don't think is the case.

 

And I think people put too much face value in Lou's talk about character.  If you listen closely, he more often speaks of maturity when discussing young players, which is actually an not insignificant trait to take into account.  As I said before, it appears to my non-scout someone who can't ice skate eyes that their biggest problem in recent years is being obsessed with size and two-way play rather than speed and skill, although the latter is what people were expecting with Tedenby so who knows. 

I agree that luck and circumstance play a huge role in this. Devils picked in the in the 20s for most years and Lou traded away a lot of picks at the deadline or draft. I'm not going to kill Lou for any of the Swedes or Matteau because they were picked where most draft publications had them ranked. I think more of the issue (this doesn't just include NJ) are the type of attributes teams value, which I outlined in the previous post. Clubs like TB, Chicago, Detroit, Montreal, etc. are ahead of the curve and have largely been disregarding size, but rather, have been getting scoring types (obvious outliers on all those teams).

 

Where I do have issues with NJ's drafting is that they have been ignoring Czech Republic, Slovakia, Russia and Finland for years. That is 20% of the NHL population that is being completely ignored.

[titans04]

Even if they swap coaches I think the best you can hope for is the initial dead cat bounce, there's no magic bullet here that's going to miraculously turn around all the dead weight on the roster for a long run. Too many underachieving old-timers  and/or guys that have not proven much of anything at this level yet.  Sprinkle in the guys that would be in the AHL on most if not all good teams (Gionta/Harrold etc.) and there's not short term fix. LL continues to back himself into a corner as he's done over the past few years.

[NJDevs4978]

I've never bought into "rebound control", since it appears to be something that's almost impossible to measure, it's more often a product of the types of shooters and shots the goalies facing, which I don't think you can even equalize with large sample sizes, and it's something that completely prone to viewer bias.

 

 

But this year it has, as well as penalties taken, to the point that the Devils are one of the worst teams in the league in that regard, when they had been consistently among the best in the league.  And the penalties taken is not something that's prone to shot counter bias.  It's very hard to believe that it's all a product of not having Volchenkov, Fayne or Stevens as the defensive coach.  And the defense you lose from those three is probably dampened by the loss of Salvador.

 

Here's a good piece on how a goalie that can handle the puck well can decrease the number of shots against and especially penalties, especially when compared to a goalie that is terrible at it.

 

http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2012/05/25/tender-touches-an-attempt-to-measure-martin-brodeurs-puckhandling-impact/

 

It's almost a truism  that a goalie that can handle the puck well gives the opposing team less of a chance to control the puck in the offensive end, which translates to fewer shots and also fewer penalties since a disproportionate number of penalties occur when you're in your own end.  (Or was that a syllogism?)  And it can't be a coincidence that the Devils have ALWAYS allowed relatively fewer shots and taken fewer penalties while Marty has been there, despite the team having gone through something like 6 or 7 coaches during that time, and had a ton of turnover on the people playing in front of him over the course of his career (I imagine he's had an equal amount of games with Stevens and Nieds than he's had without them).

 

It's pretty safe to say that the team is a lot better off with Schneider than Marty at this stage of the game.  But people are asking why the Devils are all the sudden giving up a ton of shots and taking a lot of penalties.  Only the biggest Marty haters will say it's just a coincidence that it started to happen with almost an avalanche type effect when he left. 

 

Again, puckhandling goalies can have 'some' impact on shots against.  But not to the tune of 6-7 per game (the difference between last year and this year), especially when last year Cory played slightly more than Marty.  Basically you're trying to make the case Marty's half season is responsible for an overall season difference of seven per game.  Last year Cory faced 26.75 shots per 60 minutes (1195 shots/2680 minutes), Marty faced 27.87 shots per 60 minutes (1067 shots/2297 minutes), that alone blows your hypothesis out of the water since the shot total was slightly higher with Marty.  This year Cory's facing 33.13 shots per 60 minutes (893 shots/1617 minutes).  So he suddenly got 500 times worse handling the puck from last year to this year?

 

The fact that you're attributing the number of penalties on the ice to puckhandling is silly.  Couldn't have anything to do with having younger defensemen and slower, older forwards in a game that keeps getting faster every year, I suppose.  If you're going to make the case for Marty's puckhandling having a big impact clearly it's for helping the offense a lot more than 'keeping shots down'.

Edited December 13, 2014 by NJDevs4978

[BostonNala370]

These guys are pretty terrible to be honest.  I finally pulled the plug on them in my twitter feed, and I'll follow virtually anything that I can find that's Devils related. 

 

Thanks for the information I will follow suit.

[BostonNala370]

I really think post-game comments are irrelevant. You've got a coach in a foul mood trying to bite his tongue in front of the media. Deboer is never going to give you much after a game, and that's fine. There is no point of him saying so and so sucked and then have the media spend the next day bugging him about it. If he has problems with players or plays, I am sure he addresses it inside the locker room or in meetings.

 

Deboer says a lot more the next practice anyway.  Some fans are so angry after a loss that they want to see their coach share that anger in front of a camera. No reason to do that. Last night, Deboer said little wrong. He was pissed about the sh!tty 1st period play and said that this team was toast down 2-0. Would those guys at pucksandpitchforks or whatever been happy if he said, I have been scared sh!tless with the group I was playing the last few nights? See how well that goes.

 

This makes sense, thank you for your thoughts on this subject.

Edited December 13, 2014 by BostonNala370

[BostonNala370]

From everything you hear, with the exceptions of Larsson and Josefson, DeBoer has the respect of the players.  He doesn't frustrate them. 

 

Get rid of him if you want, I'm agnostic about it at this point.  The team won't magically improve though.

 

I agree replacing him won't change things meaning immediate improvement

[Marshall]

Unless they rattle off three straight or somesuch I think he's gone after the game on the 20th. 5 points out and team ahead of/around us have 2-4 games in hand. 

Edited December 14, 2014 by Marshall

[NJDevs4978]

It'll probably already be too late by then.  Especially if they lose at least 3 of 4 which they probably will.  As you said, we're already five points behind a playoff spot needing to jump five teams to get there, and all of them have games in hand so really it's more than five points out.

 

At this point it's not even about results though.  They need to get an honest evaluation of players before the trade deadline and wholesale changes get made, and they're not going to do that with Pete coaching scared, playing his pets and running some guys into the ground.  Playing Larsson 13 minutes a night or Ruutu 9 minutes a night while Harrold approaches 20 in a hopeless cause is silly.  We know what Harrold is...a guy who can step in for a few games and then inevitably gets exposed.  He really shouldn't be playing in the second half of the season once this season completely tanks, they need to find out about everyone else.

Edited December 14, 2014 by NJDevs4978

[Marshall]

It'll probably already be too late by then.  Especially if they lose at least 3 of 4 which they probably will.  As you said, we're already five points behind a playoff spot needing to jump five teams to get there, and all of them have games in hand so really it's more than five points out.

 

At this point it's not even about results though.  They need to get an honest evaluation of players before the trade deadline and wholesale changes get made, and they're not going to do that with Pete coaching scared, playing his pets and running some guys into the ground.  Playing Larsson 13 minutes a night or Ruutu 9 minutes a night while Harrold approaches 20 in a hopeless cause is silly.  We know what Harrold is...a guy who can step in for a few games and then inevitably gets exposed.  He really shouldn't be playing in the second half of the season once this season completely tanks, they need to find out about everyone else.

 

I have no doubt that, given the way the roster looks and the underlying numbers, it already is too late. They can go on a PDO-driven short term run and appear to be back in the conversation but that's not gonna be enough in the long run.

[devilsrule33]

The more I think about it, and some people might think I am crazy....

 

One of the issues going into the year was that Deboer overachieved with his roster for the past two years, not in goals and wins obviously (that luck never went their way), but just being an extremely tough team to play against, playing his system perfectly as a low event hockey team, giving up the fewest shots in the NHL the past two seasons, and succeeding in being a top team in Corsi/Fenwick. Games that we have seen over the last 4-5 outings just never happened at all over the past few seasons.

 

Not that I think Lou could have done much differently from last season to this season, but everyones expectations were a little out of whack. When you trust and rely on 3 guys at the combined age of 117 to be as good as they were the previous year for the team to be successful, it's probably not a good idea. That's not including guys that are finished like Zubrus and Havlat, both in their mid 30s, to still be players.

 

I know a lot of people heard that with Schneider in nets and improved shootout luck, the Devils will be a better team. Well, they are slightly better at the shootout, and Schneider, although not great, has still been a lot better than Brodeur of the past few seasons. Unfortunately, that would have helped last year's team. The list of what the Devils need to get better this year is everything else.

[Devil Dan 56]

A coaching change is just rearranging deck chairs on the titanic at this point. I think it's best to trade off what you can, embrace the suckage, and put "new coach" on the off season to-do list next to "high draft pick"

Edited December 14, 2014 by Devil Dan 56

[Devilsfan118]

A coaching change is just rearranging deck chairs on the titanic at this point. I think it's best to trade off what you can, embrace the suckage, and put "new coach" on the off season to-do list next to "high draft pick"

 

My opinion has been steadily changing to this sort of thinking - especially since there doesn't appear to be a major upgrade available at the moment.

 

Though if we do go full-on rebuild before this season's over, PDB has to get the boot.  Kids need playing time.

[RunninWithTheDevil]

http://t.co/EZEyaeaR5E

 

If Lamoriello is thinking about getting rid of DeBoer, however, Devils right wing Jaromir Jagr says he should think again.

“That would be one of the biggest mistakes they could make,” the 42-year-old future Hall of Famer told The Record. “To be honest with you, without our coaches and the system we play, it would be a lot worse.”

 

[SterioDesign]

I wonder if Lou isnt playing dumb and that he knows keeping things this way and letting Deboer taking dumb decisions on a daily basis is gonna bring McDavid directly on his doorstep

Edited December 14, 2014 by SterioDesign

[jagknife]

1.) A good team player will NEVER bad mouth a coach, no matter how awful the team is doing. Its just like the real world, you'd never openly sell out your boss.

 

2.) While DeBoer is not the entire problem, I do firmly believe he is part of it. He isn't doing any of our youth favors in terms of development.

 

3.) I'm really doubting Lou has a firm pulse of the game anymore. Granted there isn't really jack he can do right now, I just think it is really time to stop giving him the benefit of the doubt and also let him feel the heat of the recent near annual failure of the team he "masterminded"

[HellOnICE]

1.) A good team player will NEVER bad mouth a coach, no matter how awful the team is doing. Its just like the real world, you'd never openly sell out your boss.

2.) While DeBoer is not the entire problem, I do firmly believe he is part of it. He isn't doing any of our youth favors in terms of development.

3.) I'm really doubting Lou has a firm pulse of the game anymore. Granted there isn't really jack he can do right now, I just think it is really time to stop giving him the benefit of the doubt and also let him feel the heat of the recent near annual failure of the team he "masterminded"

The youth development thing is getting cumbersome. Merrill is doing fine, Severson the same, Henrique developed, Larsson is playing well when healthy, the only ones having troubles is Josefson and Gelinas both of whom are getting chances. The team being awful doesn't help either and theres no first liners to bring everyone up and hide mistakes.

But what can Pete do? Gelly gets chance after chance. He's had plenty of time in the minors, he's had Tommy Albelin and Scott Stevens two very qualified coaches to help him with a load of knowledge. When does the player become responsible?

JJ has had plenty of chances too, done well in certain spots but come on - it's not the coaches who have instructed him to have no offensive ability. I'm sure they go over things with him to get him to contribute more.

[devilsrule33]

There is not a single young forward that anyone can point to as being hindered by the coaching staff. Josefson had his 1st point in 18 games yesterday? It's pretty funny that the "assist" came from him completely missing on a point blank shot out front. He can be a capable 4th liner in this league. Not much more.

 

Larsson being scratched sucked, but it came down to Larsson vs Salvador. I'll be shocked if any new coach came in and scratched the captain for Adam. At this point, it shouldn't matter too much since Gelinas would be scratched before Larsson if everyone was healthy.

 

Larsson is the only player that you can say may have been treated a bit unfairly. And even that's a stretch. Pretty much any young player that has showed they can play while cutting their teeth in the NHL, has stayed in the lineup.

Edited December 14, 2014 by devilsrule33

[SterioDesign]

There is not a single young forward that anyone can point to as being hindered by the coaching staff. Josefson had his 1st point in 18 games yesterday? It's pretty funny that the "assist" came from him completely missing on a point blank shot out front. He can be a capable 4th liner in this league. Not much more.

 

Larsson being scratched sucked, but it came down to Larsson vs Salvador. I'll be shocked if any new coach came in and scratched the captain for Adam. At this point, it shouldn't matter too much since Gelinas would be scratched before Larsson if everyone was healthy.

 

Larsson is the only player that you can say may have been treated a bit unfairly. And even that's a stretch. Pretty much any young player that has showed they can play while cutting their teeth in the NHL, has stayed in the lineup.

 

There's the problem. Salvador should not be captain and he got away with murder and players better than him sat for him cause he has the C on his jersey.

[Derek21]

It's hard to win when you have a lack of talent. From an offensive standpoint, the Devils are relying heavily on vets (Cammalleri, Elias, Havlat, Jagr, Ryder, Zajac). Outside of Henrique, they're not getting much contribution from young forwards. At some point, they need to find out about Boucher and Matteau. That probably won't come until March. Hasan had a nice evaluation of the team citing recent drafts. They at least hit a home run on Severson. Merrill is a top 4 D. Larsson has been mishandled and is probably worth trading for a forward. Gelinas should be a forward. They must be right about Schneider after investing long-term. 

[Derlique]

There is not a single young forward that anyone can point to as being hindered by the coaching staff. Josefson had his 1st point in 18 games yesterday? It's pretty funny that the "assist" came from him completely missing on a point blank shot out front. He can be a capable 4th liner in this league. Not much more.

 

Larsson being scratched sucked, but it came down to Larsson vs Salvador. I'll be shocked if any new coach came in and scratched the captain for Adam. At this point, it shouldn't matter too much since Gelinas would be scratched before Larsson if everyone was healthy.

 

Larsson is the only player that you can say may have been treated a bit unfairly. And even that's a stretch. Pretty much any young player that has showed they can play while cutting their teeth in the NHL, has stayed in the lineup.

Good post. With the departure of Volchenkov, I bet Lou and DeBoer thought Salvador was vital to the PK success. Maybe it was Volch who was carrying the duo but I still think Sal was above average there.  His ES struggles have been evident for a couple of years but his penalty killing has really fallen off. I don't doubt that Sal had an injury but I bet Larsson coming in and stabilizing the first unit helped his case and maybe elongated the "injury".

 

Thing is, I don't really see where Larsson would've gotten his chance. Sal and Volch weren't coming out because of the PK (Greene and Fayne were on the second unit), Zidlicky and Gelinas controlled the PP and Merrill really took his opportunity by the balls.

[DJ Eco]

There's the problem. Salvador should not be captain and he got away with murder and players better than him sat for him cause he has the C on his jersey.

 

Well, regarding Salvador, I will give Lou/DeBoer credit here where credit is due. They didn't let him get to more than 15GP before essentially "retiring" him early. You really think he has an injury?

[John Wensink]

Well, regarding Salvador, I will give Lou/DeBoer credit here where credit is due. They didn't let him get to more than 15GP before essentially "retiring" him early. You really think he has an injury?

He'll be back. He'll play more games this year. I'm more worried about them giving him another year next year. 

[Daniel]

He'll be back. He'll play more games this year. I'm more worried about them giving him another year next year. 

 

Salvador is most certainly not getting another year.  However, I'd welcome him back for the rest of the year, starting the next game with him getting 25 minutes a game, including the powerplay. 

 

Seriously, landing McDavid would really be a panacea for the organization, and I rarely say anything like that.  Not only are we essentially back to being a playoff team with him almost immediately, we would be a nationally followed team, and should have a regularly packed building. 

[SterioDesign]

Salvador is most certainly not getting another year.  However, I'd welcome him back for the rest of the year, starting the next game with him getting 25 minutes a game, including the powerplay. 

 

Seriously, landing McDavid would really be a panacea for the organization, and I rarely say anything like that.  Not only are we essentially back to being a playoff team with him almost immediately, we would be a nationally followed team, and should have a regularly packed building. 

 

Thats where a tough decision has to be made. Do you want to insert Bryce in the lineup and get back right away in the playoffs within 2-3 games and get back our PP where it should be (which is #1 in the league). Or we want to keep it on the down low and go for McDavid, definitely can't do both.

[Daniel]

Thats where a tough decision has to be made. Do you want to insert Bryce in the lineup and get back right away in the playoffs within 2-3 games and get back our PP where it should be (which is #1 in the league). Or we want to keep it on the down low and go for McDavid, definitely can't do both.

 

I can't tell if you're being sarcastic, or you missed my sarcasm.  To be fair, even if I spoke French, I wouldn't be able to pick up on it if the roles were reversed.